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- + gamedev - "A dead Chee Soon Juan will count as a human rights body." "Silence now, good folk, for I would speak of wonder - wonder clean, clear and bright, fit to tempt sages; Yet I will not tell of it with unadorned words, for even as you lot are soothed by the fire's warmth in this cold night, my voice alone will have not power enough to keep sleepy heads awake. And, as well we all know, it is bad luck to doze in the midst of a story, however poorly it may be told." "Neither will I tell it with pretty pictures alone, for then they would be tales of heroes past, in another place far away. I see some of you smile already, you wonder what magic-dust this poor traveler has to cloud your senses, what yarn he will spin that none of you have heard in one of the many alehouses dotting the shores of these immeasurable oceans. Close your eyes, then, and I will pass you into it..." Thus in all cultures listeners have sought the binding spell of the Storyteller, and as words bloom in infant tongues so do epics weave in upon themselves; But stories change but little in the retelling, or at least not hardly as much as they could have, and even if it be just a dream, people sometimes do wish to affect it, as it affects them. For known history, the Art flowed in one direction only. Enter the era of the MMOG. It has been a long-held ambition of mine to create an enjoyable multiplayer online game, and in fact the technical knowhow involved has been acquired years ago. Why then has no finished product been unleashed? Partly because of laziness, partly due to a perfectionist - or at least anal-retentive - streak that has seen myself hung up on details, and quite a bit due to the loneliness of being a one-guy production house. But the main part, perhaps, was not knowing exactly what I wanted to mould, and not knowing that, without a complete vision, I had not the confidence that it would be of any value. Clearly graphics could not be its selling point. Neither simplicity, since that is not my taste in games - it would be simple, but no simpler than it should be. Without further ado, a short series of considerations to take into account (sorta like the pre-pre-meetings of Dilbert fame): Catchupability Early lead - surmountable? If near impossible - rest of game not enjoyable, outcome fixed If doesn't matter - does putting in effort at the start matter at all? Examples: Daytona racing. Trailing cars somehow consistently able to gain ground to challenge again, whereas in real-life racing leads tend to be widened. Chess. Loss of a single major piece without compensation sometimes enough to yield a resignation especially at the highest levels. Skill vs Luck  Do you feel lucky today, punk? (Source) All luck games are by definition not improvable in, as they do not admit outcome improvement by strategy. Question: Is Rock-Scissors-Paper an all luck game? It is when at least one player randomly picks his hand signal, and thus any player can force it into an all luck game by doing so. However, it appears difficult for humans to naturally correctly randomize, as evidenced by tennis players switching service sides too often when trying to "mix it up", so it is not impossible that some skill is involved, especially in the context of a tournament meta-game where the objective is to achieve a significantly better than 50% winning percentage to advance to a later stage. Or at least that's what the RPS Society would have you believe. Interestingly they state that attempting pure randomness ("Chaos Play") has been weak in their tournaments, but perhaps it's partly because people who subscribe to this theory won't think that RPS has much meaning at all and are unlikely to participate? All skill games by definition have no chance involved in the context of the game. In these games, all significant information must be fully available to all players, with Chess as the prime example. As a consequence, however, these games are at least potentially completely solvable. Tic-tac-toe quickly loses its attraction because any half-competent players will always play it to a draw. Checkers is better, but also has been solved as there exists a computer program which will never lose. Chess and Go fare quite a bit better, luckily, and should continue to entertain for a while more yet assuming no exceptional developments in either computing power or algorithms. Many games are a mixture of both luck and skill. These games have the strengths that players gain additional interest in that it is possible to improve (on top of the enjoyment derived) unlike pure luck games, while also having the possibility of defeating better players (though risk aversity may suggest that most people feel worse losing to an inferior player...) This of course begs the question of why upsets can occur in chess despite it being an all skill game. A possible explanation is that player ratings in fact are continually fluctuating and cannot correctly describe a player's strength at every instant. Then, if a chess player is running out of time and uses his intuition to choose between the two best moves he has found so far, should this rightly be partly attributed to luck if he picks the better move? Good question. My answer is that although the player does not know the right move, if it is theoretically possible to compute it, then the action should be classed as one of skill and not luck, as it is the player's lack of (computational) skill that renders him unable to make the correct choice. Contrast with flipping a coin (without sensitive sensors to project its flight path), where no amount of ability allows for a solution. More Examples: All luck - Rolling a dice, tossing a coin (both when conducted properly) All skill - Chess and its variants, Go, Tic-tac-toe, other fully deterministic games Mixture - Poker, blackjack, backgammon, Monopoly, Scrabble, Magic: The Gathering, mahjong, DotA (esp random heroes)... More on Luck The challenge in a game would then be to incorporate sufficient luck to keep the game from feeling like an unfun calculation-fest, but not so much as to turn it into a glorified coin toss. This is no secret, and almost every computer game has a minor chance element, from guaranteed dodges and critical hits to special events and fogs of wars. A potential mental fallacy of note - time is often a factor when balancing the impact of luck. For instance, a single bonus Modern Armour unit might be a yawn in its own era in Civilization 4, but it would be a real powerhouse in the Middle Ages (if that were possible). Thus it is not "fair" to allocate everyone that bonus, but at different times. Another example is in Hattrick, where a superb youth player is far more of an asset to a team in its early stages than later on. In a new league, a single such gem might represent a few seasons' headstart in income, and be the deciding factor in early championship titles. Another fallacy lies in underestimating the level of luck involved. Take a RTS game with the usual trio of units - say pikemen defeat calvary, calvary defeat archers, archers defeat pikemen. It is often the case that a particular unit may only be produced from a particular structure, and thus switching strategies to counter necessarily entails spending the time and resources to construct the appropriate structure. Then, if the building time of structures dominates that of units, it may well be that the game is reduced to the mostly-luck aspect of correctly guessing the opponent's build off the bat. Human Psychology  Spot the psychological differences Some behaviours have been exploited for a long time in other fields, so why not in games? Just one example: Variable reinforcement has been known to produce more effort and takes longer to die out. If a lab rat gets a food pellet each and every time it pushes a lever, it stops pushing once it has enough pellets, and if no pellets are forthcoming the rat quickly figures that there are no rewards for continuing and stops. However, if the pellet falls after a random number of pushes, the rat can always cling on to the hope that it is just on a bad run and continue its pushing, even returning to the lever after long periods to try its luck again. This fact has (sadly) been used to attract gamblers to their ruin with slot machines, where occasional token payouts can convince them that the big jackpot is "around the corner". Less sinisterly, guess what happens when one reaps an enchanted item, or even an artifact, from a monster in Diablo II or most other RPGs? Yes, it's the same thing - the gamer returns to slashing at mobs with renewed ferocity after getting that fulfillment. The phenomenon is covered in more detail here, though I take issue with the author's assertion that "...No one would play Diablo if you needed to camp a mob that only sometimes dropped an item.". Hello, item runs? I will leave the many other psychological tricks for the reader to discover. Gamer Personalities  One man's meat... The famous Bartle Test (original paper) classifies gamers according to what makes them tick - one can be a Diamond who plays for running up huge scores and collecting great gear, a Spade who digs into and explores the game world hoping for quirky discoveries, a Heart who enjoys the social aspect and welcomes the virtual company, or a Club who wants nothing more than... to bash other characters up. Originally written for MUDs, it has proven applicable to other genres too. There are other terms (e.g. M:TG uses Timmy, Johnny and Spike), but the key point here is that different people appreciate different aspects of a game. So, if they can be easily accommodated, why not? Hattrick collected a million players through its popular subject and clear gameplay, but it kept many of them through the active community forums. The Existence Factor The last point (for now), but a very important one - a game has zero players unless it exists. The product will certainly not be perfect, so why not just go ahead and release it if it is not so horrendous as to completely destroy one's reputation as a developer? To be continued... Tidbits of the day - World of Warcraft l33t skills save boy from attack by wild animals. So next time someone sniffs at geeky behaviour, ask them, "And how would you deal with a rampaging moose today?" Still, it was just as well as the kid tried the Hunter's Feign Death skill instead of say the Warlock's Incinerate or the Warrior's Battle Shout cum Charge. USA claims right to kidnap foreign citizens - hey, you gotta like those Americans. No namby-pamby diplomatic actions, no bleeding-heart softtalk. When Uncle Sam wants you, it means he wants you, and he wants you now! In summary, American law states that once they "suspect someone of a crime (under American law, of course)", it is completely legal from their viewpoint to grab the guy from any country regardless of local law. "If you kidnap a person outside the United States and you bring him there, the court has no jurisdiction to refuse - it goes back to bounty hunting days in the 1860s." Now, let's all get back to the pressing question of why some Americans pretend they are Canadian when they are abroad... They do have a pervasive media presence though, and people generally have short and selective attenti... look! Rescued baby hedgehogs! So cute! Closer to home, even Hitler cannot escape the clutches of ODEX. Must watch. $1554.10/$1550. See the rub of the green? Odds are thin as weak stew on the bigger clubs, but one wise punter in the New Paper has revealed his insight, which has been mentioned here often enough - bet against Derby, especially when they are away. There's a bit of time to call all the matches (other than Villa vs. Pompey which is in progress now - nil-two to Pompey at half time): Chelsea 2 Sunderland 0 - Chelsea. At home Everton 1 Fulham 0 - Gut feel Man Utd 4 Derby 0 - Four goals actually is sort of expected Newcastle 2 Birmingham 1 - No win in five games, should begin now Reading 1 Liverpool 2 - If there aren't enough rotations to lift a helicopter Actual puts: $50 on Man Utd (-2.5) vs Derby (at 1.85) $25 on Liverpool to beat Reading (1.50) Next: Understanding Me
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