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Sunday, Feb 10, 2008 - 21:15 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

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Super Tuesday Past

A short and shallow commentary on the just-past Super Tuesday in American politics, and while as Sumiko Tan in today's Sunday Times' Lifestyle section says "Not that it matters one bit whether I in Singapore do or do not (like Hillary Clinton)...", control of what is still the world's only superpower will surely affect us all.

But first, what is Super Tuesday? Okay, we have two main parties in the USA - the Republicans (or GOP, Grand Old Party), and the Democrats. Others like the Greens and Libertarians do exist, but they don't really count in the big scheme of things. The US of A is comprised of fifty states (thus the United States part), and in each of them the Republicans and Democrats hold primaries, elections where prominent politicians try and convince the common man to support them in getting the party's nomination to run for President, so that one fine day the common man can vote for them in the actual Presidential election. These primaries are held over months, but Super Tuesday sees nearly half the states hold some primary or other, hence the name.

All this is a huge simplification, of course - Firstly, the US of A has non-state territories too. Secondly, each state offers a different number of delegates, generally proportional to population, who then directly do the voting for candidacy at the national convention, and may award those delegates either by proportion of common-man votes won (for Democrats) or in a winner-take-all system (sometimes for Republicans). Thirdly, the delegates are sometimes not bound to vote for the candidate they official represent (though this rarely happens). Fourthly, about 20% of the delegates are superdelegates, party bigwigs who are not offered through the electoral system but vote who whomever they damn well choose.

The date where primary elections is also important since earlier primaries act as signals and states who hold their primaries late can often be ignored politically if a candidate already has the nomination tied up (see the frontloading effect), and some states (Michigan and Florida for the Democrats) have indeed tried to increase their influence by unilaterally moving their primary dates forwards, which caused their delegates to be discounted (though the winner in both states, Clinton, isn't too eager to let them go just yet).

Now, after all that dust has settled, the reality is that the next President of the United States, barring some miracle, will be one of three people - Hillary Rodham Clinton (Democratic), Barack Hussein Obama (Democratic) or John McCain (Republican). Here's my personal take on the former, to be continued:

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Pros:

  • First woman president! On balance, should be a progressive plus.
  • Experienced, so she says, though some beg to differ.
  • Well-developed political machinery.
  • Rooted, realistic, has the details.
  • Lingering international popularity of Clinton brand name.
  • Knows White House inside out after eight years as First Lady.
  • Hubby would be a very charismatic First Laddy.
Cons:

  • Would create a Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton dynastic pass-the-parcel in the White House for over 20 years.
  • Perceived as ambitious, power hungry (double standards for a woman here?).
  • Divisive among Democrats, supposedly some of her supporters would vote for Obama for President but not the other way round.
  • Would incur opposing votes from independents and also more voting from moderate Republicans who just dislike her.
  • In short, would lose an actual Presidential election against McCain (or at least the Obama camp sez)
Today's EPL takes - with United at a ridiculous 1.17 to the win against City, who aren't a bad team at all, in the derby, it isn't worth trying on that:

$25 on Chelsea to draw Liverpool (at 2.95) - Pool a big-game hunter? Not so far in the league, but they can start now.
$25 on one goal in Chelsea vs Liverpool (3.80) - A hedge.
$25 on Draw-Home (4.50) - Another hedge.



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2 comments

c.wenhoo said...
OEI WHERE'S MCCAIN AND OBAMA


February 10, 2008 - 23:17 SGT     
gilbert said...
Quote:

"to be continued"


February 11, 2008 - 00:50 SGT     

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