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Sunday, May 23, 2010 - 01:50 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

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"Wal*Mart sells cheap Chinese made crap for a fair price and gets lambasted for it. Apple sells cheap Chinese made crap at a ridiculous markup and they can do no wrong."

- as seen on FARK
(which is not quite what we think of it, no sirree!)


It must be said that "made in China" is not the death knell for a product; for example, the RaZer DeathAdder I splurged on has been holding up nicely, and if it maintains its performance for a few years I'll be sold on the concept of spending more to spend less.

Let's see what I have stored: disposable males and princess upkeep, abandoned hamsters (think Mr. Ham saved this one) and a history of heaven, and the Riverworld. Eclectic!


Mr. Ham In 3D


If you don't have the glasses, squint and make the best of it


3D seems to be all the rage nowadays, not that everyone likes it, but it was inevitable once Avatar made the megabucks. Tron in 3D, Shrek in 3D, and advertisements in the local newspapers in 3D. Well, if you'd like to try your hand at it, there's the StereoPhoto Maker freeware to play around with, as Mr. Ham found out to his delight.


CRFs And The Market

Had a seminar on conditional random fields (CRFs) this Thursday, which is more or less a generalisation of hidden Markov models, for those interested in these things. Tellingly, most of the questions were asked on its usage in stock market prediction than any other application, though (as usual) it doesn't promise too much in that respect; the professor doing the presentation readily revealed that most big investors don't rely much on such technical analysis, which Buffett famously derided by noting that it gave the same answers whether the charts were right side up or upside down (but this is probably hyperbole)

Technical analysis for dummies: It states that the price of a stock (and its movements) is the most, and some even say only, important indicator of how the price will change in the near future, or cut to the bone, the best predictor of how a stock will do tomorrow is how it did today (Markov assumption, anyone?)


And a tenth of the wealth of a nation... just vanished
(Source: usfst.com)


The trouble is parlaying this into actual profit, which is complicated by the transaction costs, which means that an investor generally needs to do rather better than 50% to earn anything - it is oft stated that even 51% is good enough to make a load, but guaranteeing a minimum return in the short term is easier said than done. This is especially if the programs written to take advantage of such analysis inadvertently enter a death spiral through positive feedback, which some suspect caused the Dow to crash, wiping out nearly 10% of its value in minutes.

Aside one: A study suggested that testosterone predicts trading profits. In this case, might some doping make sense in the industry? Surely it wouldn't get the bad rap it gets in sports...

Aside two: But 51% or more is possible - if you're a big boy. While accusations of rigging the market might be pushing it a bit, since a better comparism for large investment banks might be with casino owners or bookmakers who take a fixed cut rather than some small-time shyster that loads the dice (which by the way can be used to demonstrate CRFs), it's not as if the banks are completely in the clear. Quote:

"...Goldman Sachs stands accused, in part, of giving favored financial treatment to Paulson's firm, allowing him to advise on the creation of a security, Abacus, that he wanted to fail; Goldman later sold it to investors who wanted the security to succeed, but didn't tell them Paulson had played a role in creating the thing and shorted it to bet it would fail... Goldman apparently withheld information about Paulson's involvement from the buyers... who lost about $1 billion on the deal."

The moral of the story is that if one is big enough to play both sides, and has few enough morals, it would be hard not to make money.

Aside three: Unsurprisingly, the financial sector came out as least popular in some survey, while technology came out tops, which I found amusing since I have qualifications in both fields. The problem with finance, or actually, technical analysis and pure speculation, is that it doesn't produce anything. Still, capitalism is probably the best that mankind has so far.


NUS Flyover


Coming together in mid-air...


I've never been much of a photography buff, but I've always appreciated construction (and the act of creation in general), and so I couldn't resist taking a shot of the half-built flyover at NUS. It turns out that there's a closer view available at STOMP - too bad it comes under the heading of "Incomplete flyer at AYE could collapse and smash cars to pieces".


Places Revisited

Occasionally, I happen to read about places I've been, though it would be hard to miss the chaos going on in Bangkok recently. Not that protests are that rare in Thailand - the yellow shirt faction blockaded airports a couple of years ago, for example - but this time it ended in fire. The CentralWorld mall, which I enjoyed just last December, has been more or less razed. What a pity.

I suppose they could rebuild it better than before; the Thais have my sympathy as they are a very nice and polite bunch as a whole from my experience, and the taste of some green-colored drink they had in their army camps suddenly floods back into my consciousness. Now where did that come from?

The Mafia Wars game on Facebook quickly put out missions that appear to closely mirror actual events (but are no doubt coincidences), which might be held to be in slightly bad taste, especially if they had more players from Thailand. Case in point: A U.S. Marine sub-boss is no longer found in the game.

They were nothing short of prescient in releasing their Paris arc that involved stealing the Mona Lisa, however - a few days after the conclusion, five paintings were indeed taken from the Musee d'Art Moderne.

And Naples. "Pizza in Naples cooked with wood from coffins" says it all. Thankfully we ate pizza at a rather high-end restaurant last year.

I think.

Breaking for the Champions League final...



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2 comments


anonymous said...

buffett u fucker
u think eat japanese buffet ah u yao gui


May 29, 2010 - 17:33 SGT     

Mr Ham J. D. Burger said...

I, the official scapegoat hamster of this blog, assume full responsibility for the spelling error, and offer myself to be squeezed in recompense as per my job duties.


May 30, 2010 - 14:40 SGT     


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