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After much deliberation, the much-awaited return of the mr. ham show has been delayed yet again, with a bunch of other happenings elbowing themselves into this weekend slot, which includes the return of the EPL. Nineteen, nineteen! Foremost among these issues is the decision of the Presidential Elections Committee, which threw a curveball by admitting Mr. Tan Jee Say into the fray, contrary to my expectations, especially as the decision can be seen as setting a precedent for future elections (then again, precedents are not always evenly applied here). Anyway, this means that the elections is now potentially a four-Tan contest. As the blog has come into some funding, we have managed to invite a Distinguished Scholar of Political Posturing from Germany, Herr Ahm A. Hoffhamm, as consultant for the day.  Harrumph Herr Ahm's CV was by far the most impressive of the experts we considered, with 349 more papers published and 84 more journal articles than the next best analyst, almost all in collections too exclusive and highly-regarded to be revealed to the common public. To top it all off, he has specialized in Singaporean Politics for twelve years at the classified Spezial-Orientale Institut für Politik, Hamburg. Herr Ahm: Achtung! Das ist meine auswertung die stellung! Me: Erm, can you speak English? Herr Ahm: Flüche! gespeichert jene Sätze für nichts! *ahem* Pleased to meet you. May I present my reading of the state of your nation as I call it: Herr Ahm: Nifty, eh? I outsourced the coding to India. Anyway, my full and perfect analysis is too complex for your puny human minds to comprehend, so I have graciously simplified it down to two of the major dimensions. You may move the circles representing the candidates by clicking and dragging. Go on, you know you want to. [N.B. The chart is a customized Voronoi diagram] Some of the candidates have rejected casting the elections as PAP against Opposition, which according to my research, is mostly a smokescreen. Remember the general elections not long ago, when people were supposed to vote for their (often short-lived) constituency's interests, at least until some heavyweight got into danger and suddenly the future of the nation was at risk? Well, since part of the President's job scope is to be a nice guy, these platitudes are only to be expected. Additionally, the candidates' stated platforms are to a large extent similar - some combination of being independent and speaking for the people, while not being confrontational (though to what degree these promises will be kept is another matter), which furthers my hypothesis that their past identity (PAP/Opposition) will be the major factor in this contest. Therefore, I have plotted the candidates above according to their perceived positions, with PAP/Opposition leanings from left to right, and the desire for a passive or active Presidency from top to bottom. Yes, they all profess to be, and officially are, nonpartisan and independent, but that is about as meaningful as me crossing the border and immediately starting to scream that I'm now French. Me: Yes, it is true that three of the candidates quit their party only this year, and such associations can't be expected to be extinguished with a few words. Herr Ahm: The interactive infographic above has been tuned to roughly fit my modelling of the situation. Dr. Tony Tan (represented in purple above, as per his election webpage) has become the establishment candidate, with the endorsements finally trickling in, though he has been hit by netizen accusations of using his influence to enable one of his sons to serve his National Service as a "defence medical scientist", which may well be a unique vocation, as well as having an unserviceable handshake, which may prevent him from carrying out one of his main functions should he become President.  No problem getting the word out (Source: singaporedailynewsblog) His main competitor for the loyalist PAP vote would be longtime MP Dr. Tan Cheng Bock (in red above), and while I predict a respectable level of support due to his long history of service, a multi-way fight is not in his favour, with a lack of official weight thrown behind him hurting him with the PAP faithful, and the existence of candidates seen to be more independent with those leaning the other way. I would put him as favourite in any straight one-on-one fight, but unfortunately for him, that looks next to impossible to happen. However, it is unlikely that he will lose his deposit (i.e. get less than 12.5% of the vote) in any circumstance.  How can you not like this man? (Source: sgpolitics.net) Here, the existence of an anti-PAP-at-all-costs brigade must be recognized, whether or not their motivations are justified. I would estimate that some 20 to 30% of the electorate would not vote for any candidate that is preferred by the PAP, which is not good news for Dr. Tony Tan. However, in a four-way contest, I would still have him to edge it thanks to his primary base. The case of Mr. Tan Kin Lian (in grey above) is interesting, with him being widely seen as the most independent of the candidates before Mr. Tan Jee Say came onto the scene. In fact, in a three-way contest without Mr. Tan Jee Say, I would have Mr. Tan Kin Lian approaching and even surpassing Dr. Tan Cheng Bock in number of ballots, courtesy of anti-PAP voters. However, the arrival of former SDP man Mr. Tan Jee Say has probably destroyed this source of votes, and even with his well-cultivated profile due to the Minibonds saga and offer to donate most of his salary, I would put him as in real danger of losing his deposit in a four-way battle, as he has no significant natural support base.  I was happily minding my own business, then TJS came in and my Opposition support more or less evaporated! (Source: singaporedailynewsblog) Mr. Tan Jee Say's (in cyan above) qualification means that he becomes the clear choice for the virulently anti-PAP to rally around, which as mentioned should gain him a healthy one-fifth to one-fourth of the total vote before the more contemplative citizens come in, some of whom might reasonably want a President that is completely unbeholden to the PAP. Nicole Seah's endorsement shouldn't hurt, either.  That's the lao uncle vote tied up, then (Source: Yahoo! News) Me: And how do you think it will pan out, Herr Ahm? Herr Ahm: As things stand, I would put Dr. Tony Tan winning with near-40%, Mr. Tan Jee Say second with around 30%, Dr. Tan Cheng Bock safely in with 20-plus percent, and Mr. Tan Kin Lian in danger of losing his deposit, as illustrated above. What would really shake things up would be the withdrawal of one or more of the candidates; for example, if Dr. Tan Cheng Bock withdraws, it should benefit Dr. Tony Tan more than the other two, since there is significent overlap in their followers. Indeed, if either of the good doctors concede, the other doctor would have a great shot at winning with a clear majority, as they grab the PAP vote and more. Thing is, neither will. As with the Doctors, the Misters are also closely positioned. Here's where I see it getting really exciting. Mr. Tan Kin Lian, whom I project has ten-plus percent of the votes currently, may well hold the key to the election. If he bows out, I see more of his votes going to Mr. Tan Jee Say than the Docs, and this may well be the difference between victory and defeat. Me: So will he? Herr Ahm: Only he knows. While his most recent statement acknowledges this eventuality and seems to indicate that he will not withdraw (quote: "Having thought over this matter, I am making full preparation for a 4 corner contest."), he has since clarified in the national news that his final decision will be made on August 17. Me: Are there parallels with, say, the Nader spoiler effect? Herr Ahm: Certainly, if things go as predicted. Frankly, while Mr. Tan Kin Lian had a small but nonzero chance of actually winning in a three-cornered fight due to the dynamics of the election, he has no hope now. It comes down to whether he wants to make a point, and what point he wants to make. Me: Still, might not a low-40%/high-30% estimate for Dr. Tony Tan be on the low side, given how much backing he has received? Herr Ahm: For that, we can draw upon recent history. In 1993, Mr. Ong Teng Cheong became the first elected president of Singapore, but with only 58% of the votes, and that against what can only be described as a complete political non-entity, Mr. Chua Kim Yeow, who went as far as to endorse Mr. Ong (presumably he was not concerned about his deposit). Considering that Mr. Ong probably was by some distance the more suitable candidate, and Mr. Chua clearly only reluctantly threw his hat in to avoid a walkover, and that not even the whiff of personal scandal had attached itself to Mr. Ong, one might have expected superficially rational voters to have elected Mr. Ong by a huge margin, perhaps 80%, but that was clearly not what the voters desired. Therefore, with Dr. Tony Tan facing the prospect of having his party votes cannibalized by another former PAP member, and competing in a rather more hostile political climate, I would be extremely surprised if he manages significantly more than 40% of the valid votes in a three or four-cornered fight. Me: Thank you, Herr Ahm. And what do you think of the London riots? Herr Ahm: Bunch of savage opportunists, basically. I would say that ninety percent of them couldn't care less about some guy being shot by the police, but just figured that they could get some free stuff - or even just a rush of excitement - at minimal risk. Same thing as a run on a bank or the stock market, but with more window-smashing. Liberalism has been blamed for it, but a large part must be down to the riot police being completely toothless despite having the clearcut moral high ground - watch, for instance, them retreating under minor pressure, which immediately invited more pressure from an initially hesitant mob. Sure, this is the safest thing for the policemen, both in terms of personal health and lawsuit liability, but it does nothing for their authority, which extends to the rights of honest citizens. They can't lop off and display heads as the Kempeitai did, but a couple of well-executed shield bashes to the deserving couldn't have gone amiss.  But Chamberlain said, appease for peace in our time! (Source: truebluenz.com) Me: Well put. So... Herr Ahm: Excuse me, your prepaid time's up. Please accept this cute video with my compliments, while I take my leave. Next: PE Updates
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