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Saturday, Aug 27, 2011 - 21:55 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Final Call

We'll have the seventh President of Singapore in a few hours, and political expert Herr Ahm A. Hoffhamm is back with a last roundup. Herr Ahm has taken the liberty of recommending fellow academician Monsieur Jambon Cabotin-Cuisse to provide additional commentary. Monsieur Jambon... err, where is he, Herr Ahm?

Herr Ahm: Ah, I believe he may have been held up. Let me see if he's outside.

Me: While waiting for Monsieur Jambon, perhaps we can do a brief runthrou...


Merci


Monsieur Jambon: Sacrebleu! Your public transport system, très atroce! There I was, riding my bicycle with my bag of loaves in one hand and a string of onions around the other, and I had only run six people off the sidewalk when I was told to get on the road! How rude! And I had to take off my beloved striped shirt after I kept getting stopped and asked if it was the new Queens Park Rangers jersey. *Sniff* Typical behaviour only to be expected of a former colonial backwater outpost of those abominable Brits, I suppose.

Me: Umm, welcome. And as requested, I am honoured to declare on air that your appearance fee will be the same as Herr Ahm's. And by the way, did you see him? He was looking for you.

Monsieur Jambon: Oh, that. Uh, he had a bad case of tummyache. Won't be back for awhile, let's best start. I will be addressing the candidates in alphabetical order:



Dr. Tan Cheng Bock

Main Support: PAP grassroots (especially from his former constituency), neutrals, moderate Opposition members

Cards In The Hand: Few actually actively dislike him - what can people have against a neighbourhood doctor? By all accounts a very friendly chap, and by far the most popular second choice, if not first. His advocacy of free Sunday parking also appears to have won him an inordinate amount of votes among car-possessing locals.

Shot In The Foot: The Istana proposal backfired big time on him, looking at reactions on the ground. On hindsight, it was an extremely ill-advised gambit, which probably was aimed at asserting his independence but ended up lending itself to accusations of arrogance - a big risk for woefully small gain.

Ace In The Hole: Due to candidates being listed in alphabetical order on the ballot, he appears first, which is no small advantage - research suggests that it is worth some three percentage points (see for example Ho & Imai, or Stewart et al.), a factor that to the best of my knowledge has not been raised in your sorry excuse for mainstream media. Three percent may be all the difference in this election.

Last Hurrah: Directed at fellow former PAP MP Dr. Tony Tan, questioning his independence. With this move, he has clearly staked his claim to wavering PAP-leaning voters, which should make the other candidates very happy. Intriguingly, he seems to be old friends with Mr. Tan Jee Say - might this explain why his last attack (which is generally the most serious one, since it is most likely to stick) was in the other direction?

If He Wins: This is perhaps the most desirable outcome, as both the Dr. Tony Tan and Mr. Tan Jee Say camps (perhaps more accurately labelled the anti-TJS and anti-TT camps) will be largely mollified, although hardcore Opposition supporters won't be pleased - but they take a lot of pleasing.

While it may be taken as a wake-up call to the PAP leadership, Dr. Tan may well have second thoughts about pushing his Istana proposal in particular in one of those cosy private meetings he so loves. One can easily imagine our PM giving his patented Mas Selamat Three Second Stare. Nothing substantial happens during his presidency.

If He Loses: He is unlikely to lose by that much, and should almost certainly garner a very respectable 20-plus percent of the vote share. Will probably retire quietly from public life popularity intact, with an outside chance at contesting the next Presidential election.

Final Prediction: All things considered, the election's Mr. Nice Guy likely has wrested some additional votes, in particular from the other Dr. Tan, in the course of campaigning. Added to the primacy effect, I would place him at 30±3% (up from original estimate of 21%)



Mr. Tan Jee Say

Main Support: Hardcore anti-PAP Opposition, the generally dissatisfied, transparency-seekers

Cards In The Hand: Especially with lingering post-General Election sentiments, the 40% Opposition vote is a bloc that cannot be overlooked, moreso given the relative passion with which it is expressed. Frankly, Mr. Tan did not have to do too much to get the bulk of the votes that he will get - being on an Opposition ticket was more than sufficient.

Shot In The Foot: He has made little effort to hide his affiliations with the Opposition during campaigning, which has probably turned some swing voters off. Some have also pointed out his - let us put it delicately - overly-excited eyes, which may not be in keeping with Presidential decorum. The mainstream media has been quick to pounce upon his animated character.

Ace In The Hole: He knows where his vote is coming from, and has played to his audience well. His chosen symbol, a simple heart, is also probably the most striking of the four, and may pick up some scattered crosses from the undecided.

Last Hurrah: Tried to soften his image and gain centralist votes by potraying himself as cooperative. Probably did not have much of an effect, as he has one of the stronger images, for better or worse. Also tried for the minority vote, which does not seem to have worked from personal observation.

If He Wins: Exciting times ahead, at least for a few months. Things play out in one of two ways - after an initial flush of activity by the President is followed by predictable stonewalling by the Government, he could press buttons one too many time and happen to lapse into alcoholism or some other unsavoury habit, at least officially. Or he could maintain an acceptable level of background noise, and largely be ignored. Either way, nothing substantial happens, other than the presence of a convenient scapegoat.

Some charities may have the opportunity to be the beneficiaries of a million-dollar windfall, but I'm sure that their head honchos will be thinking extremely hard about whether they dare to take the money.

If He Loses: He would have raised his profile and buffed up his portfolio for a return to the Opposition, which looks likely given as he is relatively young. After flirting with the SDP, joins forces with Nicole Seah and wins a GRC. And anyway, he has already won, so he says.

Final Prediction: Mr. Tan has a lock on the staunch anti-PAP and pro-SDP votes, which by themselves should guarantee a rock-solid 20%. His wider appeal is more questionable, with the less-confrontational breed of Opposition supporters possibly migrating to Dr. Tan Cheng Bock and Mr. Tan Kin Lian. My final call is 28±3% (down from original 33%)


Me: Some, uh, extremely interesting opinions. Which reminds me, is Herr Ahm alright?

Monsieur Jambon: Uh, I'll go get him. *disappears out of the door*

Herr Ahm: Ahhh, that was a real bomb I let loose in the loo!

Me: Herr Ahm, your moustache looks suspiciously similar to Monsieur Jambon's.

Herr Ahm: Oh, um, that. I did a touch of shaving back there. Moving on, moving on!



Dr. Tony Tan Keng Yam

Main Support: PAP elite and loyalists, civil servants, elderly

Cards In The Hand: The better question might be, which of the high cards aren't in his hand? What might be termed the great and the good are all solidly behind the establishment-but-completely-independent candidate (wink wink). Kings, queens and knaves, he's got a full house.


This about sums it up
[N.B. The advertisement appeared on the Facebook page of Demoncratic Singapore, which is not particularly Dr. Tony Tan-friendly]


Shot In The Foot: For all that, there were still moments in which he looked straight-flushed. His nonpartisanship could never have been very convincing, given his lengthy and fruitful association with the PAP, with one of the low points of his campaign being an unsatisfyingly non-specific refutation by his sons, that their National Service stints had been spent in rather cushier vocations than might have been otherwise expected.

A simple statement along the lines of: "Throughout SAF's history, there were X servicemen who were posted as defence medical scientists, therefore Dr. Tan's posting was not out of the ordinary for servicemen with similar qualifications" would have sufficed - alas, that was not forthcoming.

Ace In The Hole: Then again, most of his supporters could care less about such minor details as National Service. While the backing of Those Who Have Made It, Those Who Think They Are Going To Make It and Those Who Don't Want To Know What Will Happen If He Doesn't Make It can be understood, the most potent weapon up his sleeve is probably the teeming masses of civil servants (numbering in the hundreds of thousands) who still quite often subscribe to the What If They Can Trace The Ballots philosophy, and openly admit that it is their main reason for voting establishment.

[N.B. It could be amusing to watch the wholesale shift as and when an incumbent party appears to be losing its grip, kind of like how fair-weather football fans jump club at the drop of a title]

It is at this point that an excerpt from Sandman seems strangely appropriate:


(Source: Sandman #60)


Lucifer: Honesty is a somewhat overrated virtue, Remiel.

Honesty, for example, would compel me to admit that I have never liked you, even when I was an angel. I didn't like you. Also, I never respected you.

You didn't join the rebellion, not because you felt I was wrong, but because you were too damned scared.

What would you have done, had I won? Told me that you'd always supported me ideologically? That you were secretly cheering me on the whole time?

Tell me, Remiel... what did you do when the order came for you to spread your wings and reign in Hell? Did you whimper? Did you wail?

Somehow, I confess I find myself certain that Duma was the one actually to take the key. Duma always struck me as having some backbone...


Last Hurrah: Dispelling rumours, which may be a slightly worrying sign, since they would have been simply ignored had they been felt to be insubstantial.

If He Wins: Nothing substantial happens. There, that was short.

If He Loses: Some soul-searching over at headquarters - brief, out of necessity. Presents practised thank-you speech at venue where attendees are strictly screened, with undertones of repentance (yours, not his). Vague rumblings about investor sentiment and business being affected. Next President subtly arrowed whenever any MNC pulls out of Singapore for any reason.

Final Prediction: Wins with 33±3% (down from 36.5%)



Mr. Tan Kin Lian

Main Support: Minibond victims, true neutrals

Cards In The Hand: Unbridled optimism, "many people"

Shot In The Foot: Entry of Mr. Tan Jee Say, which was the exact instant at which his expected vote share collapsed from some 30% to about 10%. Murmurings about his NTUC tenure and lack of gravitas didn't help.

Ace In The Hole: Started early. Can actually speak Mandarin. Probably the cutest of the four.

Last Hurrah: Whacking Mr. Tan Jee Say for having the temerity to contest after being awarded the COE. He may however have a stronger case if he were the one getting more votes; as it is, this complaint doesn't reflect very well on him.

If He Wins: "Can I have money to provide a pension for the elderly?" "No way." "What about NSmen then?" "Cannot." Nothing substantial happens.

If He Loses: Mr. Tan Jee Say's supporters rage at him, if their losing margin was less than his vote share (which is probable). Counters that "many people" wanted him to run.

Final Prediction: 9±3% (about the same)

[N.B. Since there are over 2 million eligible voters, even a 5% vote share would translate to about a hundred thousand people, which by most standards would qualify as "many people"; so Mr. Tan was technically correct all this while]



Herr Ahm: So to sum up our final predictions: Dr. Tan Cheng Bock, 30±3%; Mr. Tan Jee Say, 28±3%; Dr. Tony Tan, 33±3%; Mr. Tan Kin Lian, 9±3% (all percentages refer to valid votes only). And oh, our money back guarantee just lapsed.

But one last tidbit: You know that the official residence of the President is the Istana? Well, apparently the people who named it knew more than they let on - rearrange the letters and, lo and behold, Is a Tan! How about that?



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Next: Through White-Tinted Glasses


Related Posts:
And There Were Four
PE Updates
Again In This Respect
The Book of Changes (Part II)
Aftermaths
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