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Sunday, Aug 28, 2011 - 13:03 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Through White-Tinted Glasses

Herr Ahm: Time for the Presidential Elections wrapup over here at bert's blog! As we have predicted, Dr. Tony Tan has won, albeit with a razor-thin margin of 0.34%, or some seven thousand votes out of 2.1 million. His haul of 35.19% was within our parameters of 33±3%, as was Mr. Tan Jee Say's 25.04%, with our call being 28±3%.

Dr. Tan Cheng Bock ran Dr. Tony Tan very close, exceeding our prediction of 30±3% slightly with 34.85%, while Mr. Tan Kin Lian brought up the rear with 4.91%, marginally less than the 9±3% we thought he would garner.


The new face of Singapore
(Source: forums.hardwarezone.com.sg)


Me: What do the results mean, and what lessons may we take from this outcome?

Herr Ahm: *whispers* There's the little matter of our prediction bonus...

Me: We'll get to that later.

Herr Ahm: Hmph. I'll get straight down to it then. Although Presidents and other heads of states have become unpopular during their tenure in other countries, it remains relatively rare for them to start off with a mere 35% of direct support. Worse, it seems safe to state that an absolute majority of voters actively did not want Dr. Tony Tan in - as we have stressed, Dr. Tan Cheng Bock would have had a better stab at true reconciliation.

Indeed, in a one-on-one, we speculate that Dr. Tan Cheng Bock would be the winner by a much larger margin (about 10%), a suspicion not lost on many voters, who may well resent this perception of having being "cheated" by the election mechanics. However, as there will (rightly) be no Round Two, we will never know for certain.

The Prime Minister has announced publicly that Dr. Tony Tan was the "unambiguous winner" with a "mandate" (what else could he have said?), but did retain enough objectivity to refrain from prefacing the word "mandate" with adjectives like "clear" ("unambiguous" probably being justified in the sense that A having a single more vote than B means that A > B)

We however have no doubt that Dr. Tan was being sincere when he declared that he intended to be a President and work not only for those who voted for him, but also those who didn't - if by "work", he means "do little in practice other than helm the odd charity extravaganza and shake hands with visiting dignitaries, as my predecessor did."

Me: Isn't that a bit harsh?

Herr Ahm: *stares*

Me: Ok, ok, my fault for asking.

Herr Ahm: One might wonder whether it would actually have benefited the PAP more had Dr. Tan lost, which going by the actual results, isn't that farfetched - in return for being seen to have gained a largely powerless ceremonial post, stymied voters might carry their bone to pick into the next General Election, where this issue will surely resurface. A valuable pressure-escape valve has been lost.

A convincing victory would not nearly have been as bad, but having a slight margin that necessitated a recount, in addition to the unsaid understanding that a good - probably even deciding - minority of the winning candidate's votes came from those who did not even support his ideals so much as were afraid not to do so because of their employment/promotion prospects, surely has left a bitter aftertaste.

The national newspaper commented that the Dr. Tan Cheng Bock constituency is a "new" one, compared to Dr. Tony Tan's "old PAP". However, I would argue that Dr. Tan Cheng Bock represents the "oldest" and original PAP of the independence years, which drew its power bottom-up from the grassroots level, and was applauded for being "for the people" - instead of "for the people... who manage to get rich", as the current direction is sometimes muttered to be.

If the incumbents are not careful, they may see the ground pulled from under them by the likes of the Workers' Party, who are executing the tried and tested old-PAP formula well; an internal split between elite/grassroots factions is also not completely out of the question.

Me: Now that's an idea for a second expansion set: Party In Power: Schism.

Herr Ahm: Yes, yes. *glances at watch*

Me: Any more thoughts?

Herr Ahm: Fingers are already being pointed online at Mr. Tan Jee Say for taking votes from Dr. Tan Cheng Bock, which is likely true in the sense that we project Dr. Tan Cheng Bock to win a three-way without Mr. Tan Jee Say too, given Mr. Tan Kin Lian's performance. While the majority of TJS supporters might not back any former PAP member, of the minority that would, Dr. Tan Cheng Bock would probably sweep most of them, which should be enough.

Some are wondering whether the PEC's approval of Mr. Tan was designed just to manufacture this situation, but if that was the intention, they may have outsmarted themselves. The national newspaper has declared that "Tony Tan's big gamble pays off" (page 6) - but it remains to be seen exactly what the payoff is.

Mr. Tan Jee Say did slightly worse than we calculated, and on hindsight it seems that one of his target blocs - swing voters - went to Dr. Tan Cheng Bock instead. One observation about Opposition supporters is that they tend to place too much stock in the identity of their candidates, instead of accepting that the majority of their votes (with the possible exception of Potong Pasir, Hougang and Aljunied) come from anti-PAP voters who would have gone for any Opposition, even the Hamster Liberation Front. It looks like a long, hard road ahead for SDP-esque parties.

Mr. Tan Kin Lian however took this divorce from reality to the extreme, and we might have been more sympathetic had he given some inkling of recognizing the position he was in. However, with a couple of days remaining, he still insisted that the candidates were about evenly matched, when even casual observers could see that he wasn't going to make it. For that gross misjudgment alone, especially coming from a statistician, his suitability for the post can be questioned.

Me: That's slightly harsh, I feel - a hundred thousand votes is still quite many people, after all.

Herr Ahm: Yeah, yeah, whatever. If it is any consolation, your new 35% President will have his work cut out for him.

Me: Thank you. And oh, you're guest punter for the day, taking over from Mr. Ham.

Herr Ahm (0/100 seeds): Ah, that. Everything on Fulham to beat Newcastle (at 3.55)

FAKEBERT (195/100 seeds): Fifty on Manchester City to beat Tottenham (at 1.92), and fifty on Brom to beat Stoke (at 1.95)



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