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Sunday, Mar 25, 2012 - 00:45 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Rare Sightings

Encountered now-NUS-High-teacher whb at the S16 busstop today after popping over to collect some data from the lab, and then kk on the bus itself. Small world.

Cleaned my keyboard (probably the geeky equivalent of changing underwear) last week, and discovered that I had been forcing the keys out the wrong way all along (screwdriver should lever from the back). Couldn't do much about the trusty Deathadder, which remained functionally excellent but aesthetically deficient, with the rubberized upper coating a sticky dust magnet after three years.

Alcohol didn't quite work to my satisfaction, and the results after scrubbing with industrial hand cleaner persuaded me to fork out for a replacement. As I had absolutely no complaints with the DeathAdder (or their customer service reps - and what's so degrading about being a mobile hotspot?), the Black Edition with sensible non-stick plastic on top, a black scrollwheel and no glowing lights (which I'll miss... not) was the obvious pick. I might have felt uneasy about dropping some ninety bucks on a mouse back in the day, but hey, guys move along with their options.


Mr. Ham is displeased with the competition


I took the opportunity to walk about the iconic and soon-to-be-demolished Rochor Centre for the first and probably last time. It wasn't remotely busy, with the floors seemingly dominated by beauty salons, miscellaneous agencies, training centres and the like, but fairly well-maintained. Got out the ol' phone and took some snaps. Marina Cove next?


Sim Lim Square - very close by



The colours will be missed



Weights are not for show



Just like any neighbourhood


Missed the Stallman talk, though. Dang.

As it happens, the MRT has been falling apart so often of late - the breakdown blackout delays were followed by multiple errant rail clips, leaking roofs, snapped cables and faulty escalators - that one almost has to suspect wholesale sabotage. Perhaps the former CEO might shed some light on her thoughts about this possibility on her personal blog. Time to explore more creative solutions, especially in the face of new record COEs? Free cake wouldn't be remiss.


赌神 Revisited

Herr Ahm: By the way, my client Mr. Ham has shown much interest in the baccarat workshop you mentioned recently - starting his own, that is. He always knew there was money to be made in tuition in Singapore, just not how much.

Me: *groans* Not this again.

Herr Ahm: In fact, Mr. Ham feels that he can improve on his unfortunate predecessor's modus operandi, having studied the news report. It was stated that the workshop organizer taught his students not to take comped meals from the casino, not to stay for more than three hours, and not to visit more than one casino a day, "to guard against imps".

Me: Sounds exactly like what the gullible would swallow.

Herr Ahm: Actually, reading between the lines, there's a good reason for these restrictions. It is well known that the weakness of the Martingale, or "double down until you win" method, is a long losing streak, since the table limit means that the gambler cannot double one more time (even if he had the funds) to try and recover his previous wagers, which implies that this strategy generally yields a sustained period of minor profits before catastrophic losses.

Mr. Ham then... gently persuaded Mr. Robo to do the math. At the local integrated resorts, the minimum bet for baccarat is usually S$50, while the table limit is S$50k. Generously assuming a S$25 minimum would then require a string of eleven straight losses before the Martingale collapses.

How often does a gamer win any individual bet? The expected house edge is generally slightly more than one percent, but we shall have it at 1% for convenience. Then, how many bets will the average workshop attendee place? A usual pace is about one hand per minute, thus at three hours a day for three days, he would see around 540 hands.

And for the really interesting part - how rare is a crushing streak of eleven straight losses? Well, two raised to the power of eleven is 2048, and simulation yields a similar figure, therefore the gamer can expect to experience such a run every two or three thousand hands played. However, the workshop operator, who should have done the math, limited his pupils to only about 540 hands before his money-back guarantee expires, so all's well, right?

Not quite, as it turns out. Even with a relatively low 540 hands played, fully 15% of the students would experience eleven straight losses! Given that the report mentioned at least five classes with an average of 20 students, it is extremely probable that our God of Gambling would have a dozen pissed customers on his hands after the practical training. He could of course give his impish excuses (surely worth a punt given his student demographic), but as he raked in at least S$1.5 million in course fees, he could probably honour his money-back guarantee (expected refunds of some S$200000-plus), and still make out like a bandit.

Me: He could have been a fund manager and done much the same, but at a larger scale and completely legally, you know. The Martingale thing ain't gonna last much longer than a week for most hardcore gamblers.

Herr Ahm: That's too respectable for Mr. Ham's tastes. He's planning to shrink the practical training component to a single session, and search for tables with extremely low minimum bets. Want in on the action?


Ink Be Gone

Me: No thanks. By the way, I couldn't help but notice you were cribbing off Wikipedia more than usual.

Herr Ahm: Eh, it's vanquished none lesser than the Encyclopædia Britannica, which is now out of the print business. Not even academic snobbery could save it from effective demise at the hands of its far more comprehensive and up-to-date rival. Which also contains the occasional humourous vulgarity, and is completely free.

Me: Suffer the new generation of professors who will have to print and bind their own copies of Wikipedia in future to decorate their bookshelves, and possibly berate their undergrads for relying on Twitter citations instead of the now-respectable Wikipedia. I kinda miss my collection of The New Book of Knowledge... not really. C'mon, man, the era of cutting-edge information in hardcopy is gone. Let it go.

Herr Ahm: There's got to be a market for printing text, which would have done just swell as a webpage, into book format just so that it can be included in references without earning a questioning look.

Me: You're a few centuries late - we do have such service providers; they're called "University Presses". Well, the students might peruse the texts on some $57 I-slate tablets developed here (beating even China on cost), which could find some use at home (hint hint - or at least till Apple comes calling), and further integration may even be possible!

Herr Ahm: So ink has some future after all.

Mr. Robo: Ah, but can you converse with a book? The Big G's going into semantic search, which means you will be able to ask questions of them in natural language. Such as "how tall is mt everest", as noted in the Yahoo! article, which they will someday be able to answer directly by recognizing that "mt" means "Mount"! How mindblowing!

Me: Hmm. Let me try that query elsewhere.


Okay, maybe it's not that new
(Sources: Ask Jeeves and WolframAlpha)


As it happens, the height's under review, not that it's constant by any length. I'm kind of split over this, Wikipedia's one thing, but straying into having too many bite-sized definitive answers could breed a monolithic culture of knowledge.

Mr. Robo: @Gilbert srs rly?

Me: Yah, like that.


A Large Problem (Or Two)

Mr. Robo: Um, Herr Ahm, might I have some time alone with the human?

Herr Ahm: Sure, suit yourself. *leaves*

Me: Is anything the matter?

Mr. Robo: Yes, it's kind of... private.

Me: I'm all ears.

Mr. Robo: Well, it's like that. I woke up this morning and discovered that there was this huge lump on my end. The end opposite to this end, which I am talking to you from. I'm concerned that it might be a tumour.

Me: Crap. Let's have a look at it. Turn over.


This enough?


Me: My goodness! It's ginormous! It's far larger than what the first Mr. Ham developed in his last days, and I thought that was frighteningly big!

Mr. Robo: You... you won't return me as a defective pet, will you?

Me: What are you talking about? Certainly not! But it does look worryingly serious.

Mr. Robo: Am... am I gonna die?

Me: Not if I can help it.

Mr. Robo: (hopefully) Oh yes, it's so fortunate that I'm in a healthcare utopia where treatment is guaranteed, and even such complex procedures as heart bypasses cost only S$8!

Me: Ehh, about that... I don't know how to break it to you; I don't think it works quite like that... wait. Does your tumour hurt at all?

Mr. Robo: Nope. But it's worse than it looks.

Me: How can that possibly be?

Mr. Robo: I have another one of these, on my other side, that is almost exactly the same size and shape. I'm doomed, surely? Just tell me the truth, I can take it.

Me: Hmm. Stand up and let me observe them more closely.

...

...

I think they are your balls, Mr. Robo.

Mr. Robo: Ah, so that's what they are!

Me: But how in the world did they get to that size?!

Mr. Robo: (thinks) Maybe it's because they nearly always get kicked by the ghost of Ms. Robo whenever she pays a visit. Heck, how can someone that incorporeal hurt that much?

Me: Maybe it's a mental whiplash thing.


Herr Ahm (2452/2500 seeds): Representing Mr. Ham once more. Everything on Fulham to beat United. Nah, just joking. I'll take Fulham (+1.5) at 2.00

FAKEBERT (2345.5/2500 seeds): Fifty seeds on Stoke City to draw Manchester City (at 3.50), and fifty on the upset win (at 5.10)



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