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Sunday, May 27, 2012 - 20:15 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

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All As Expected

The Hougang by-election results have been Yam-ed, and the conclusion is: Workers' Party (Mr. Png Eng Huat) 62.09%, People's Action Party (Mr. Desmond Choo... or is it?) 37.91%. Incredibly, this final margin is less than one percentage point away from Herr Ahm's wonderfully perceptive February prediction of 63%, and it is my honour to invite the distinguished analyst back for a chat. Herr Ahm, please.


Elementary my dear human


Me: I have to say that this is incredible even by your standards, Herr Ahm! Furthermore, you called everything at the start of the entire affair - the timing, the identities of the candidates, the behaviour of other interested parties, and now even the margin - not having had the benefit of reacting to all the intervening twists and turns, and by their own admission, outdoing the top human experts. How did you do it?

Herr Ahm: It is all velly simple, human. I simply speak the truth, unpopular as it may sound to some sections of the audience. In investing parlance, I stick to the fundamentals, and I stand by the succinct analysis I made back then. I mean, if you pay me enough, I'll feed you the lies you want, but that's not what you're after, and you're poor anyway.

In this case, the outcome was largely inevitable - as one local commentator observed well, Hougang Teochew lang tee kee (stubborn) one; therefore, as a uninvested outhamster, I was more interested in watching the behaviour of the clashing powers in the buildup, and what I saw... doesn't bode well for the ruling party.

The main sideshow was, of course, NCMP-gate, which kicked in about a week before the election proper. As featured here, a DPM questioned whether Mr. Png was the best man for Hougang, since they didn't put him in Parliament as an NCMP.

Before continuing, it should be noted that this accusation is completely ridiculous from so many angles - for a start, it applies no matter who the WP chose as their NCMP. Additionally, it could be as easily questioned whether Mr. Choo was in fact the best the PAP had to offer (or even within the top ten - where are all the ministers running for Hougang?)

It would probably have been best had the WP answered this pointless and non-productive question with some birdtalk of their own (as they belatedly did), but they made the tactical misstep of taking it seriously and having Mr. Png say that he was not considered for the NCMP position as he was personally against the scheme.

Then, it began to get weird. As if on cue, a squirrel (sly creatures, I tell you, not like us honest hamsters) leaked the minutes from a central executive council meeting of the WP, revealing that Mr. Png was in fact in the running for the NCMP post, and had gotten one vote. Armed with this, the gleeful establishment machinery went into overdrive, harping that the WP might not have been "honest and upright".


A rendering of what scattergun character assassination looks like
(Source: WP page on Facebook)


Mr. Png soon clarified that he was forced to participate in the election since all qualifying members had to be included in the ballot by party regulation, though he had made his intentions clear to the party leaders before the vote (which was collaborated by a former CEC member), but the question is: why were these technicalities even an issue to begin with?

Oh yes, it's because the incumbents were selling it as a local election (since it doesn't look good for them on the national front), and therefore had little new to offer other than to rebuild a wet market (which they allowed to be torn down in the first place), launch a free legal clinic (which ACLS president Subhas Anandan quickly made clear was not tied to any party - as he is well entitled to, since his people will be doing all the actual work), give away free hearing aids (funded by an unaffiliated charity) and free porridge (again funded by an unaffiliated temple... you get the idea)

To cap it off, their candidate (admittely a decent enough fellow, though helped by having outsourced the mudslinging - but he's still independent and his own man!) turned on the last-minute waterworks (it did work for his boss) and then impressively managed to channel both Obama and House Stark in one go with his "Change is coming" soundbite.

Except, as we all know, it didn't work.


You get nothing! You lose! Good day, sir!
(Source: wn.com)


It's all about the fundamentals, really.

As a detached analyst, I've got to say that this was a missed opportunity for the incumbents - time and again, Hougang has shown that it is not for sale, and they must have realised that their chances were bleak (or they need to hire better analysts, like me); It would thus have cost them nothing to show that they were sincere in breaking from gutter politics (then money politics - one step at a time), but no. As Alex Au noted, "if... cannot even change style, what hope of changing policies?"

The mainstream media, that you lambasted in the previous post, didn't fare much better either. While they did refrain from getting too cute with a flatly neutral "WP wins 62.1%" headline, a turn to the inside pages gives "Hougang speaks, but for itself", a backhanded gem which not even the wits at mr. brown's blog could come up with.

Oh, they do try to be subtle... as a sledgehammer. Take their extremely coincidental selection of photos - Mr. Png tends to get presented on a banner or alone, while Mr. Choo's image is that of a young (but no, there's no age discrimination here), energetic man of the people. And really, you would be hard-pressed to find a less flattering photo to plaster on the front page than this. Face half-shadowed? Check. Pensive, guilty looking expression? Check. Looking like a puppet while party leaders whisper across you? Check.

This is not even getting into the persistent MySpace angles:


Typical MSM photo of incumbent rally (with foreign talent!)
(Source: asiaone.com)



In context
[N.B. At least try new techniques?]
(Source: newnation.sg)



Fair side-by-side comparism with the WP? You wait long long.
(Source: singaporeelection.blogspot.com)


I mean, I could say that your mainstream media is unbiased and equal-opportunity, but my reputation is at stake here. Even the famously cautious Mr. Low couldn't help but blast them (to their credit, they did publish the criticism... after it went on live broadcast)

I will be back with my reading of the overall political situation... after you pay my speaking fees.

Me: Thank you, Herr Ahm!



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