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Sunday, Jan 20, 2013 - 00:59 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

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Ba Dum Dum

The 2D1N Soju Bang buffet of slow-moving Korean MTVs in which no tables were harmed was followed by a kickabout at Stadio@Fairway on Friday night at short notice, meaning that my discounted neon-pink-and-navy-blue boots could finally be unveiled. Hey, they're handy in poor lighting.

I took some time to rediscover what little touch I possessed, and was content with trying to eliminate obvious holes on the defensive end, while providing another body at the other end and on corners, ending with a second-degree assist and two near-assists.

Should really try to pick up how to dribble someday, but with how little I'm playing, it always seemed better to stick to passing - thing about dribbling is that it's inherently a higher-risk, higher-reward choice, which I've never quite come to terms with. No way to correct that but playing more and being willing to fail.

Came across a reference to some local research on personality types, and while it was not publicly available, the journal administrator got back within minutes after an email request. Now that's what I call responsiveness. There appears to be slightly more introvert-types locally as compared to the USA, with some other minor peculiarities.

And it seems that Lance Armstrong has finally admitted to doping, and well, I'm not that surprised given that he defeated numerous known dopers. This does raise the uncomfortable spectre of how prevalent it is in other sports, and a New Yorker journalist has ventured that "virtually all the men and women in every event shorter than four hundred metres are doped". Please, not Bolt too...

[Bonus: spot possible false dichotomy in research conclusion]


PE-BE Day Draws Closer

Herr Ahm: I'll make this quick. The SDP eventually saw the light and withdrew, leaving the RP and SDA to carry the baby.

Me: The pullout was largely hailed online, but Dr. Chee going as far as to assert that it "won't hurt (their) credibility" might be asking for too much.

Herr Ahm: Yup, you just can't behave in a completely stupid manner and expect to wave your hands and be rid of the image. It was probably a crap idea for any of the SDP or RP to contest in the first place, which should be evident from the most basic analysis, but at least the SDP did the right thing, ignored the sunk costs and cut their losses. As they say, 识时务者为俊杰.

As to whether it was all some cunning plan to lure the incumbents out or other opposition parties in - given how much less silly they could have made themselves look while remaining convincing, I subscribe to Sir Bernard Ingham here: "Many journalists have fallen for the conspiracy theory of government. I do assure you that they would produce more accurate work if they adhered to the cock-up theory."

I can be a little more sympathetic about the SDA, as it's actually their home base, but when you're paying for teenaged volunteers to wave your flags, leaving insufficient funds to even hold a rally, it might be a sign to pack it in. The incumbents can actually afford their nasi lemak freebies, you know, even without it being on the taxpayer dime. If I may say so, they have also been slightly suspiciously publicly helpful - one never sees so many accidents happen around Opposition leaders with cameras in attendance!

Speaking of the incumbents, they have wasted no time in dangling carrots as usual, with Rivervale Plaza elevated to being the most important shopping centre in the country, with no less than the Prime Minister himself pledging an interest in its renovation. Just order the Army Engineers out already.

Me: As it turns out, you predicted the WP's candidate correctly.

Herr Ahm: *shrugs* Hey, I'm the Master Political Analyst, not some human wannabe. She has as good a chance as any.

And the RP. Ah, the RP. I have turned it over and over in my head, and I still have not the faintest clue what they are doing. The man himself stated that his goal is to see "the right to democracy win", and then follows up by saying that he is "very confident that in a free and fair one-on-one fight, the PAP would lose".

Well, this being a guy with a double first from Cambridge, I frankly didn't expect him to call a press conference with practically no warning to declare his candidacy, and run on a platform of "No broken promises" (what happened to West Coast GRC?) while committing to a chain of nurseries (managed by the NTUC, no less!). But I expected him to have enough sense not to run at all, so...

Given the historical performance of candidates claiming widespread support where all evidence points to the contrary, whilst offering to donate part of the salary (10% this time), I can't see him going very far, to say the least.


He has, if nothing, won in one respect
(Original source: TODAY)


Me: Cutting to the chase, any updated predictions?

Herr Ahm: I'll confidently venture that the RP and SDA won't get beyond single digits, put together. In fact, I would put both of them at 3±2%. After that, I would have the incumbents retain with 49±3%, while the WP improves to 45±3%, if only by virtue of having shown themselves to be the only contesting opposition party not to be some flavour of idiot this time round.


Please, Don't Do This At Home

Some time ago, "knows when to shut up" was proposed as a desirable trait to have in a partner. While admittedly slightly blunt, an example may serve to showcase its importance:

Ideal scenario:

P: Have you decided what to do with your spare funds yet?

Me: I have placed it in a competitive interest-bearing checking account. It is done.

P: Good.

(Bliss)


Hell on Earth scenario (only slightly embellished, if that):

P: Have you decided what to do with your spare funds yet?

Me: I have placed it in a competitive interest-bearing checking account. It is done.

P: What about the excess? Take it out so that the deposit is a nice round number.

Me: Huh? (Inner thought: Does this matter? And it's my money, not yours)

P: Just take it out.

Me: Okay, fine.

...

P: Are you sure it's safe, since it's not incorporated locally? Why not put it in UOB or OCBC like I've always done?

Me: It's mostly covered by MAS deposit insurance, exactly like our local banks.

P: Is this insurance safe?

Me: Yes... (Inner thought: If not, the government has collapsed and I'll probably have bigger worries than that)

P: Sure? I know more about this than you, I've talked to the people over at UOB and OCBC, you know. I have experience in fixed deposits. I also remember reading in the papers that some banks collapsed a few years ago.

Me: ... (Inner thought: It appears my degree in economics was for naught)

P: And where's the passbook? You can't trust banks if they don't give you a passbook.

Me: It's all accessible online now.

*P calls up relatives to discuss the perils and pitfalls of banks without passbooks, and concludes she is now an expert in the matter of passbooks and their relation to bank solvency*

P: You sure it's safe?

Me: Yes...

P: Why don't you throw it in fixed deposits, like me? What's wrong with fixed deposits? They're safe. Do it for me.

Me: The interest from the checking account is nearly equivalent to that of the best fixed deposit returns that I could find, and the flexibility to withdraw and take advantage of any good investment opportunities more than makes up for it in my opinion.

P: Investments? What do you know about investments? You'll lose all your money!

Me: ... (Inner thought: Thanks for the vote of confidence)

P: You sure you don't want a fixed deposit? There are branches in the neighbourhood market. It's so convenient.

Me: ...

P: And where's the excess I told you to take out?

Me: The cheque clearing process will take a few days, as is standard.

P: Why are you so incompetent? Why can't the bank do that? Are you sure the money's safe? Maybe they've lost it already? Oh, why didn't you just put it in a fixed deposit? That's safe! What do you have against UOB and OCBC?

Me: ... (Inner thought: Man, if you want that so badly, I'll just draw it from the savings account, happy?)

P: You sure this bank can cash the cheque? Where would they get the money from anyway? You sure they can do it?

Me: ... (Inner thought: Why is this happening to me?)

P: And why do you have only this flimsy sheet of paper to show for it? Will the bank eat your money?

Me: ... (Inner thought: I would suppose that you only get a similar flimsy sheet of paper as record of your fixed deposits too)

P: And what happens if the Internet gets a virus? Will all the money be gone then?

Me: It doesn't work like that. (Inner thought: Just kill me now)

P: Also, why isn't there a comma to mark the thousands on the receipt? My statements always have a comma.

*After bedtime*

P: Come on, just put it in a fixed deposit, I know more about this banking thing than you, especially in the area of fixed deposits. Don't regret it next time.

...

And you sure the PIN number they supplied you for the ATM card is accurate?

Me: ... (Inner thought: Must... not... give... in...)

P: Okay, never mind, I'm not going to care about this any longer. It's your business.

*The next day*

P: Are you very sure it's safe? Have you considered fixed deposits?


Let's just say that girls who can't speak are inexplicably getting increasingly attractive by the day.

From the looks of it, some banks are running multiple systems in parallel, with the representative having to switch between a modern web-based interface and a DOS-like one that might well be running COBOL on the backend for all I know. Better that than Java, I suppose.

She also introduced the TM Nest Egg scheme, which sounds possibly promising for those who have excess liquidity - (figures approximate) for a S$1.05k contribution each month for five years, the policy will return about S$81k after ten years (at 5.25% investment return, which the company has always met so far) on the S$61k put in.

This comes out to a return of about 4% per annum on similarly-structured fixed deposits, without mentioning the insurance coverage, which I suppose should be a decent medium-term deal for risk-averse individuals in today's climate, especially if they don't expect interest rates to go up. There is, of course, a non-zero chance that the company won't meet its investment return targets, so it also comes down to how much one believes in track records.

Local property developers and prices have been hit by the government's latest round of cooling measures. I would have taken credit for calling a correction, but that would be sort of unfair given the open-endedness of the prediction. I could never understand the advice by some netizens to buy "since the long-term trend will be up" (but not in size), when it seems so likely that we're on the cusp of a short-term one.

Or, in other words, yes, you could make a profit by holding long enough, but why not buy in nearer a local minimum? With reference to history, a buyer might not have lost out if he had dived in at the 1996 peak, but how much better would it have been had he gone in around the 1999 trough?

That said, while the builder in me gets excited at the planned doubling of our rail network, the subtext is that the "growth by pumping people in" strategy will remain essentially unchanged (so much for conversations). A quick estimate suggests that if this is to happen, the makeup of "Singaporeans" may be very different in as short as a few decades. Well, if they have made their resolution, let there at least be some token effort at arresting the native birth dearth. We will see soon.


I could look at this all day
(Source: dukenostalgia.com)



Heartwarmers (Badly Needed)

Kittens, ducks, bunny love and pet ambition. Outsourcing to watch them is, however, not recommended.


300k

The all-time pageview count has exceeded 300000 somewhat earlier than projected, boosted by a record 3230 hits on the fifteenth; yes, I know it's chicken feed in the wider blogosphere, and Mr. Ham beat that in three days by pretending to be a shapely female with a penchant for revealing attire just to cement the point, but still not too bad for a focusless personal sounding board. Cheers!



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