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Quick, how many ways are there to say "change"? - The State's Times front page headlines, 19 August "Major shift" - The New Paper front page headlines, 19 August "A strategic shift" - TODAY front page headlines, 19 August "弃旧立新" (Out with the old, in with the new) - Lianhe Zaobao front page headlines, 19 August "Perubahan untuk rakyat" (Change for the people) - Berita Harian front page headlines (probably), 19 August "Signs point to landmark National Day Rally" - The State's Times absolutely cannot contain its excitement, 18 August Which brings us to... - Herr Ahm, Master Political Analyst  Buzz off, I got to this pulpit first (Source: flickr.com) Many Times Bitten, Still Not Shy Me: So, we turn the time over to everyone's favourite Master Political Analyst, Herr Ahm! Herr Ahm: Thank you, human. Make that MPA and Master Financial Analyst, by the way. And unlike the talentless hack that you are, plodding your way through, I got my Ph.D. in Financial Analysis in just six months! Me: That sounds suspiciously fast. Herr Ahm: I went the creative and unconventional route, you know. And if you have any issues with that, I got four of them. Surely they can't all be wrong? And on to what I was hired for, dissecting National Day Rally 2013. As usual, I'll be on the critical (and correct) side and pull no punches, despite the personal risk, since if readers want to hear what the rah-rah cheerleader brigade has to say, there are no less than sixteen highly reputable national newspapers they can refer to (hint: "bold") Like the human, I waited for the full transcript instead of watching the rally live, both as it's faster to read it through, and to avoid having my thought processes clouded by melodrama. By the way, the venue had been shifted to ITE College Central - which was probably already the second biggest change unveiled on the night, as I shall explain. The transcript has thoughtfully added section headings, and I shall categorize the content as follows:
Immediately glaring was what was totally not mentioned:
But we'll leave that for the moment, together with the feel-good stories, and go into the three conveniently-outlined main topics. Ass, et tu?  Lai ah lai, empty your CPF! Cheap cheap! (Source: Hardwarezone Forums) Summary of housing pitch:
Take-home message: "This is how we are making HDB flats more affordable." Obvious question: How does any of the above, other than the maybe-grant, actually make HDB flats more affordable? Same Old Medicine Basically, Obamacare comes to the Lion City. In theory. It began with the observation that "if you are on MediShield, which most people are, you do not need to worry". Sounds good. But hey, it stops at 90, and doesn't cover pre-existing conditions. So don't worry, just pay more. Remember CPF Life, which started out with choices, which were soon removed, to leave you with no choice but to cough up, for zero guarantee of payout? It follows that the natural progression is to MediShield Life - also no choice, also no guarantee since there aren't even details yet; but rest assured that paying money must be good for you! It's a fact of Life! See, raising the minimum sum and withdrawal age isn't the only way to keep cash in the state/Temasek coffers. Take-home message: Paying more has been definitively settled on. The pesky specifics can be worked on later. Judgment must be reserved until the fine print appears - what are the exact premiums? What are the deductible and co-pays? What level of treatment is covered? All very, very important. And hey, didn't the divisive Opposition push for this first? [N.B. Oh, and MARUAH proposed an Ethnic Balancing Contingency System to remove the alleged need for GRCs. Good luck to them] Band Aids And finally, education. The first HUGE CHANGE announced was that Edusave contributions (of $200 to $240 a year) will be extended to all kids. Natural response: why was it ever not available to everyone to begin with? Is that something to take credit for? A less pure and trusting analyst might even see this as an early vote-getting initiative... On to Primary One admissions. The second HUGE CHANGE is to reserve forty places (about 10%) of the entering cohort for those without (alumni) connections. To begin with, this of course only impacts the most popular schools, a small minority of the total. So this means, what, a few hundred kids per year get accepted to different schools, all of which are good, mind? Cosmos-shattering, that's what! Epochal! Proving that no good deed goes unpunished, a letter writer was quick to denounce this meager ten percent allotment for those without connections as a populist measure. No bets taken on whether the writer has a five or six-year old in line, though I'm gunning for populist measure being the next incumbent supporter catchphrase of the season, taking over from xenophobia. Next up, the PSLE scoring system. A one-point difference was stated not to mean much. That's true. There's a lot of stress involved. Probably true. The groundbreaking solution? Wider bands. Now, this could mean two things. One possibility is that the actual aggregate score remains, and is used to determine selection precedence just as it is now, only that the student and his parents don't know the exact score, just an approximation. Since this has completely no effect, I understand the bands to mean that the actual aggregate score is no longer used, after it is used to determine the band [N.B. Actually, the current system is a banding system, since scores are rounded to the nearest whole number - just that there are about 200 bands]. For example, let's say Band Not Bad covers aggregate scores from 210 to 224, and Alice scored 223 while Bob scored 211. Previously, Alice would be ahead in the queue, but now they are figuratively standing exactly abreast. Just for fun, we will refer to a proposed possible banding system, for the following discussion:
With reference to a typical cut-off point table, the reasoning for the bands here being heavily top-loaded (200 is fixed as the average) is that selectivity is mostly relevant in this range - if a kid got 170, there probably isn't going to be that much competition, so there's not much point in being needlessly cruel once we're at about the 40th percentile. Essentially, the last two bands signify the allocation to Normal (Academic) or Normal (Technical), with no finer distinction. In this system, the top three Mugger bands basically are guaranteed a spot in whatever school they pick, since the highest cut-off point was 265 (for Nanyang Girls), and are there to preserve some bragging rights. The fourth band on becomes significant - and would roughly correspond to (informal) school tiers (even if unintended). Using the 2012 table, Best Of The Rest would indicate the second tier of four schools after the Big Four, Honest Hardworkers about the next ten schools, Well Balanced the next twelve or so, and so on. Sounds fun, right? But slow down, and think a bit more deeply. What effect would a banding system like this have? Will it actually reduce competition and stress? Consider the case of Charlie, Debra and Ethel. Charlie got 259, and wants to enter Dunman High (2012 cutoff: 256). Under the new system, Dunman High would likely have a cutoff of Best Of The Rest, maybe with a few places left over. Either way, Charlie gets his desired school. The sky-shifting policy had completely no effect for him. Debra (score: 253) and Ethel (score: 249) meanwhile both hope to enter Cedar Girls (2012 cutoff: 251). Under the existing system, the outcome is straightforward - Debra gets in, Ethel misses out (unless she can pull strings some other way). But what happens with bands? Under the banding system above, both Debra and Ethel would be classified - the same - as Honest Hardworkers, while Cedar Girls would probably accept all Best Of The Rest and aboves, but only some of the Honest Hardworkers. So, how do they decide between all the Debras and Ethels? Offhand, there are three broad classes of possibilities:
Let's say it goes down to balloting (though I think it unlikely to be the eventual solution) - does this reduce stress? Quite possibly not, as parents would just be more driven to ensure that their poor kid clambers into the next band, so as not to have his "future" come down to a dice roll. Second option, open criteria? Ho say liao, parents will likely be volunteering the kids to go on charity missions and piano lessons, depending on the scoresheet, on top of still mugging, since the band remains paramount. Third option, hidden criteria? Too much opaqueness (as with direct admissions) takes away from the ideal of meritocracy and a level playing field; essentially, it then reduces to luck, with extra resentment engendered by the possibility, even if only imagined, that admissions are down to connections. Take-home message: As demonstrated, this is a flimsy patch that does next to nothing in practice, and furthermore doesn't address the root cause, which is that working-class jobs here generally pay so little that having their children clamber over the chicken essence-infused bodies of their competitors is the only way out that parents can envisage. The Moral If you cry change too often and no change arrives, don't be surprised when one fine day, the village doesn't give a damn. Next: Our Hamster Conversation
Linkback by Daily SG: 21 Aug 2013 | The Singapore Daily
Linkback by Daily SG: 21 Aug 2013 | The Singapore Daily
Linkback by Daily SG: 21 Aug 2013 | The Singapore Daily
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