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Sunday, Oct 27, 2013 - 01:11 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Whiter Than White


Preliminaries

Errata: For last week's post, The half-year net increase in foreign workers for the period between Dec 2012 and Jun 2013 should be 28500, not 23500 as originally stated in the table, due to a transcription error. The projection of 57000 for the year remains.

Ulp, didn't realise that the IPPT window has been reduced to nine months. Well, the longer run will probably be in my favour, if they scale the pace down in concert. HIIT?

At times, it's probably best to discard an old draft and just begin anew, in the same way that at some point, legacy code should simply be junked and rewritten from scratch. Wrapping up academics for the time being, a professor's explanation for why he (gasp!) quit tenure has gotten an airing, and in summary he dislikes how the system is set up to reward incremental work and getting leaders in the sub-sub-field to remember you, rather than breaking new ground. Incidentally, he also appreciates cynical students.

Also discovered Dr. Donoho's guide on how to be cited (at least in applied math) - there's of course working in popular fields, but other than that he suggests to:
  1. Develop a method for data of a kind that is getting popular
  2. Implement the method, and provide the software gratis (was figured out previously actually)
  3. Create datasets, and provide them gratis
  4. Leave room for improvement

Of course, giving away code is probably pointless if the software simply doesn't work (or is too similar to existing implementations). The last point is interesting, though. Why would a (near-)perfect method not be popular? Well, first off, it's likely to be overly specialized to the particular domain. Even if it were not, what would other researchers rather do? Explain why their contribution doesn't quite measure up, or excitedly present how some new twist improves the results?

This paradoxically also often favours simpler methods in being cited - if the method is straightforward enough, other groups would have confidence that they did reimplement it correctly for comparism purposes, whereas one could understand why they would be reluctant to even try, if pages and pages of formulae are involved in the masterpiece.

It turns out that the empty bus turning up was probably a "half-way trip". Fair effort, I guess.

And how is Singapore not winning more martial arts tournaments? The grassroots are certainly going strong. Technical notes from the video: This is why weight is significant (as mentioned), and why high kicks should be sparingly used, and combination high kicks not at all - kickboxing followers will note that a majority of kicks are to the opponent's thigh or calf, to accumulate damage at much reduced risk. Then again, the younger fella was probably peacocking, so flashy moves might have been appropriate.

Finally, I don't play League of Legends, but do they know how to market their characters!


"So much better, so much fun/
Let's start from scratch and, blow up the sun!"
Does break the mould (not a problem in Iran)



Line In The Sand

[Errata 23rd November 2013: Mr. Robo spotted a gross error in understanding in this section. The average household income per member is actually over all members, and not working members. Moreover, aggregate household income statistics without employer CPF are available. The analysis therefore becomes more favourable, but the basic point stands]

On reflection, perhaps I've been too harsh on The State's Times - for some of their features, they're merely relaying the official line, such as Wednesday's explanation on why Singapore doesn't have an official poverty line. According to the esteemed relevant Minister, it is because drawing a line "would not fully reflect the severity and complexity of issues faced by the poor, and may also lead to those above the line missing out on assistance." (word for word)

On re-reflection, however, both these assertions are kind of strange. No one claims, for example, that the Pink Ribbon Project completely represents the challenges faced by breast cancer sufferers, but nobody uses that as a reason not to have a campaign to raise awareness!

On the second point of a possible "cliff effect", where needy families would suddenly be ineligible for benefits once their income crosses the threshold, this is simply down to a lack of imagination. If the ministry were so inclined, it would not be hard at all to come out with a negative income tax system with no dropoff at all - e.g. each adult gets S$500 if he or she has no income, with the benefit reduced by 25 cents for each additional dollar earned up to S$2000, after which normal positive income tax starts to apply.

One could argue that there is then an incentive to game the system by underdeclaring income, but this would likely be even more pronounced with a fixed yes/no cliff, so it shouldn't be an issue. Methinks the true reason is far simpler. Exhibit A: Page 42 of the report on Key Household Income Trends 2012 by the Department of Statistics:

Percentile10th20th30th
Average IncomeS$1518S$2985S$4290

In perspective: Firstly, these figures are only for employed households - 9.2% of households here have completely no working income, and therefore it would probably be more accurate to have the S$1518/month as being closer to the average of the 20th percentile of all households, rather than the 10th. Secondly, the wages include "see no touch" employee CPF contributions, which immediately lops off at least another 40% (for each dollar over S$500) for low-wage workers, once they pass the woefully low sum of S$500/month. Thirdly, while the figures are the averages per household, the report admits that low-income households also tend to have fewer working members, thus more instability.

This adds up to a triple whammy. Even if we generously ignore half of the unemployed households, what this still means is that the bottom 20% of households (including 5% from unemployed households) have a total monthly gross income of S$2985 or less, which becomes about S$2200, nett of CPF. Reminder: this is the upper limit of the entire monthly household income for 20% of families, leaning to the optimistic side!

Part of the reason why the topic even came up in the envelope-pushing columns of The State's Times was due to perennial hard-nosed competitors Hong Kong adopting a household poverty line of HK$11550/month, which translates to S$1830/month (S$2440 for four members, which is nearer the average household size here), following the so-far slightly-benign adventure of the minimum wage that hasn't killed their competitiveness despite our government's expert opinions. For all The State's Times' slant, with pro-open-floodgates commentary appearing regularly and nary a mention of contrary attitudes, the root causes remain unfixed.

Bearing in mind that our per-capita GDP is marginally higher than Hong Kong's, if we follow their (scaled for household size) S$2440 per month per household standard, even after giving all possible benefit of doubt, it is near-certain that at least 20% of local households would fall below the poverty line - and quite rightly, I would add. To crosscheck whether this figure is fair, we might consider bare-minimum expenses:

Housing: S$215/month for a two-room flat on a 20-year loan. Alright, can pay by CPF (and exhaust one's retirement funds in the process), so we won't consider it as an expense on net income.

Transport: S$72/month for each individual, consisting of two medium-distance bus rides of S$1.50 a day each way, six days a week, either to work or school.

Food: S$180/month for each individual, at S$2 per meal per day, all economy rice, one veg one meat. Anything less would probably be unhealthy over the long term.

Handphone: S$15/month for the absolutely cheapest plan.

Utilities: S$100/month for electricity, water and gas.

Which comes to a total of about S$1200/month on unavoidable expenses for a four-member household of two working adults and two dependants, each adult earning S$1650/month, or S$1100/month take-home after CPF, for S$2200/month in total.

On the surface, this does leave a surplus... but consider all the miscellaneous items we have ignored - the household has zero insurance; replacement of basic furniture, electronics (e.g. cheap television set, fans), clothes, toiletries, etc are not factored in at all; nor nickel-and-dime additions like conservancy charges, school fees, tv subscriptions, etc - and this is after settling for a bare subsistence lifestyle, before considering more grandparents, a second kid, or heaven forbid, medical bills! Yes, S$2200 monthly income per household sure looks like poverty to me, or pretty dang close.

Problem is, if we did actually set that as the official poverty line, this headline would be splashed in foreign media (with full justification):

At Least 20% Of Singaporeans In Poverty,
Barely Making Ends Meet

Cannot what! Like that the incumbent party no face leh! Singapore don't have poor people under our illustrious world-class leadership one! Chao chao their flat also worth S$200000 okay! How can like that say? Why got 750000 needy residents suddenly pop out of nowhere? At most they need to jump through hoops for temporary case-by-case welfare only lah.

And that's the real reason why we don't have an official poverty line.


Humph

The Co-op's become a top spot for picking up new titles, as Neil Humphreys' Match Fixer caught my eye while I was searching for an exercise book. Since it cost like seventeen bucks, I picked it up from the library on the way home.

Those who read the local tabloids will be well-acquainted with Humphreys (and learn more about his native Dagenham than any non-Britisher has a right to). As with any humourist, he does go a bit far out on the limb at times, but the guy's always up for some self-depreciation to balance it out.

They do say that jesters are often the only ones permitted to hint that the emperor is naked, and I'll let his writing speak for itself.

Thought process of a loanshark out to "fix" a player:

"...didn't even have to bribe them anymore. He had to in the early days; his boss always insisted on it as they were mostly Singaporeans then. But today's security guards were Indian or Bangladeshi guys earning $600 a month. They never wanted any aggravation. They never wanted to be interviewed by the authorities. They just wanted to keep their 'green cards'."

Protagonist Chris Osborne, down-on-his-luck former West Ham trainee and Dagenham lad, on finding a new club:

"I've been rejected by England, most of Europe, Australia, and now you're telling me that Japan, Thailand and Malaysia don't want to know either. We've already scraped the bottom of the barrel. There can't be any league left in the world."

Following that, upon hearing about the S-League:

"Singapore? Are you having a laugh, Dad? ...Why the hell would I want to go and play in China?"

Joke's a bit tired, I know. Amusingly, Osborne's dad kept track of him on Football Manager (which is, actually, a good idea)

Old bird editor advising new reporter:

"Don't be ridiculous. This is Singapore football. Nothing is corrupt in Singapore... You see, Singapore is all about its image. Singapore is polished, clean, and where possible, green. Did you read your Singapore Tourism Board brochure like a good foreign talent when we hired you? ...that's the image Singapore presents to the world. It won't tell you about the hookers or the transvestites around Geylang and Desker Road, but they're there. It won't tell you about the Bangladeshi illegal immigrants..."

On the average Singaporean football reader (as also noted in Soccernomics):

"...the average football reader doesn't give a shit (about football). He cares about winning or losing, whichever pays out more. That's sports in Singapore. That's life in Singapore. Betting funds the Singapore Pools."

Local footballer recalling an exhibition game against Manchester United, not at all fondly:

"Danny never forgot the crappy exhibition match he played a couple of years ago at Kallang. He was part of a Singapore Selection taking on Manchester United at the National Stadium. Inevitably, the match was a joke. The United boys refused to tackle in a meaningless pre-season marketing exercise, and the Singapore Selection boys couldn't tackle... Sir Alex Ferguson played most of his kids and the older pros changed positions for no other reason than they knew they could. When their reserve goalkeeper was allowed to play at full-back and the naïve crowd actually applauded the move, Danny lost it."

New reporter experiences hard truths:

"The average Singaporean thought the S-League was fixed... the cynical thinking made no sense to Billy. He had backpacked around poor European countries with hardly any recorded case of football corruption and here he was in one of the richest, safest, cleanest countries, and its only professional sports league was known locally as the 'Kelong League'."

On S-League sponsorship (maybe exaggerated, mostly because in reality most of the MPs are probably oblivious about whether their constituency even has an S-League club):

"National service. You see this? This is our fundraiser that's going to be held next week. We have one every year, and every year all our local MPs and ministers toast another S-League season and wish us all the best for another year... But the truth is, all the big guys have been asked to back an S-League club. It's a national project so they must do their national service..."

Scattered notes on the league's popularity:

"Raffles Rangers were the reigning S-League champions and Singapore Cup holders, and their training session had an audience of one. Himself. (Player after a big game) A title decider and we got fewer fans than a League Two game. (After Osborne arrived) Raffles' Rangers' attendances have jumped by almost 2000 just because of him... we averaged around 1500 to 2000, now we're getting well over 4000(!)"

[N.B. The proposed SEA League might mercifully put it out of its misery, and perhaps allow some of the old semi-pro passion to be recaptured]

Which is why bookies love it:

"You're lucky no one watches S-League. No one gives a shit. That's why S-League always pays so well. Other leagues too troublesome, too many fans, too many cameras, players paid too much money. But S-League always so easy. Players paid like shit."

Changing tack a bit, a local Caucasian-only-but-not-SPG's thoughts on a former boyfriend:

"...He was the only one who made her fantasise about their future together. She wanted it all - the engagement, the down payment on a five-room apartment, the wedding at the Marina Mandarin Hotel, the baby, the maid, everything. He was Chinese, but he was a Raffles Institution old boy, English-educated, overseas arts degree graduate and a fan of alternative British comedy. He didn't speak a word of Chinese and constantly bitched about how the Singapore Government was alienating his generation with their Speak Mandarin campaigns. He listened to the right music, bought the right theatre tickets at the Esplanade and had copies of all the recent Booker Prize winners on his shelf. He was irreverent, edgy and highly critical of the Singapore Government. He was a young, upper middle-class Chinese Singaporean cliché."


More alternative British comedy


We might note at this point that Humphries weaves fact with fiction (or at least, improvisation) liberally; while he includes many real-life West Ham United personnel, such as Carlos Tevez (whom was said to have "it" at the highest levels, unlike Osborne), no actual S-League clubs are named, with Raffles Rangers and Orchard FC invented for the book. Funnier still are the (unnamed) ministers - the Minister for Home Improvement and Minister for Sports (Land and Water), which for all its ridiculousness, does still beat the position of Minister Without Portfolio, on hindsight.

Anyway, we get a look into the ministers' inner thoughts:

"The Minister for Sports (Land and Water) nodded. His old friend was right. He usually was. That's why he won all the school debates at Raffles Institution when they were kids. That's why he was Minister for Home Improvement and being fast-tracked. What sort of bloody portfolio was the Minister for Sports (Land and Water)? It was a few trips to the latest reservoir to watch some kayaking, the biennial junket to some godforsaken place for the Southeast Asian Games and the occasional trek to China to convince a few Chinese table tennis players on the fringes to swap flags at the next Olympics. Thanks to the foreign talent programme, the Minister for Sports (Land and Water) spent more time shaking foreign hands than Singaporean hands.

Foreign talent is the future. Foreign talent will preserve Singapore's future. If it were not for foreign talent, Singaporeans would still be selling homemade wooden animals from rickety old stalls. If it were not for foreign talent, the island would slowly choke - death by economic asphyxiation. There was no alternative. Foreign talent would be Singapore's salvation. It was the clarion call of the Cabinet."

But wait, there's more!

"The Minister had sat through every tedious Cabinet meeting about declining birth rates and the ageing population. He had also heard the faint thud of distant alarm bells during the confidential meetings about GDP and unemployment projections for the next couple of years. There was no room left for belts to be tightened - to borrow one of the Cabinet's favourite phrases - and some voters were going to be suffocated. But the economy depended on increased foreign labour, both skilled and unskilled, for its survival.

He had also read the most controversial paper of all. If Singaporeans were not willing to have enough babies to cover the shortfall, then too bad, foreigners could inflate the numbers. What happened then if foreigners outweighed Singaporeans? The impact upon the social fabric might be devastating. Not to mention the potential for political upheaval... Everyone in the Cabinet knew the reality, but no one in the Cabinet had a solution and that irritated the Minister...

...Did you see that TIME magazine article? The ang mos are staying, but no one is having any babies - local, foreign, no one. If I don't improve these birth rates, I might have to buy them myself from India."

Keep in mind that the book was written in 2009 by a guy who can't even keep his underpants on, by his own admission. Food for thought.


Song For The Occasion





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