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Sunday, Aug 09, 2015 - 22:25 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Nine-Eight-Fifty-Fifty

It's been a restful four-day weekend thus far, inclusive of a quick drive down to Raffles Marina (mostly deserted, not that I'm complaining) to take in the opening match of the EPL season. A number of observations here:
  • The Fergie's Fledglings era is well and truly over, after years of it sinking in
  • van Gaal, please dun try to tahan through the season with Rooney as lone striker, leh
  • Schweinsteiger looks, and moves, as if he's in his forties (he's just turned 31)
  • Memphis Depay seems overhyped, on current evidence. Early days yet, though...
  • Tottenham are not very good at defending (seriously, for the goal, the centreback could have just stuck to Rooney on hindsight, instead of coming across)
  • Sergio Romero looks a decent goalkeeper, at least when allowed to just lump it upfield
  • Herrera is still United's best attacking midfield pick
  • Please, no Rooney as lone striker (yes, repeat plea)

Might as well continue with the bullet points:

Tringapore cannot into unproductive vacation (Johor no count)
(Source: reddit.com)


This is not the hard part, btw

  • Nate Silver weighs in on how statistics may be more practical than calculus as a high school foundation
  • China vs. Singapore: money on the road (not a true comparism due to lack of identifiable victim in the latter - but still...)
  • Breadtalk exposed for repackaging S$1.50 cartons of Yeo's soya milk, into three S$1.80 "freshly prepared" bottles, in classic middleman fashion. Turns out they're doing the same for other drinks. They are very sorry. Outraged consumers cool down with natural spring bottled water from the tap.
  • Rodents make it in finance
  • Prairie dogs, network guys of Nature
  • Malaysian PM fires investigators, as anti-corruption agency clears the US$700 million in his account
    • as merely "donations". Police then stopped from investigating anti-corruption agency, as Mr. Magic expresses his astonishment at all the hoohah over the piddling sum - heck, it's not even a round billion - and insists that everything he did, he did it for you!


Dr. Chang's General Election Preview

Me: And we're back to Master Political Analyst Dr. Chang, hamster scholar extraordinaire.

Dr. Chang: And about time. Background, then. The new electoral map has been released a couple of weeks back, comprising 89 constituencies; this in turn suggests that the real deal will be in September, leaving the Opposition scrambling to sort out their response, as usual.

Taking a quick look, Potong Pasir has been preserved - for now - but Joo Chiat SMC, which came within a whisker of falling to the Workers' Party in 2011, has been abolished. As has Moulmein-Kallang GRC, helmed by your luckless Transport Minister. On the other hand, several constituencies have reappeared, all of which look to be interesting battlegrounds.

As we had held off on the analysis in part due to the Opposition's somewhat-united front being negotiated over then, it only makes sense to report the current state of the non-white parties:


(Source: theonlinecitizen.com)


As can be seen, there are three remaining points of contention. I address them in reverse order of significance.

First, the tussle between the Reform Party and SingFirst, for the honour of taking on the Prime Minister in Ang Mo Kio (i.e. suiciding). The only consolation I see from this is that they might not lose their deposits even in the event of a three-cornered fight, since their reputations are about on par (i.e. not much); 30-odd percent if either withdraws appears likely, with something like a 20-10 split possible if neither give way.

Now, Kenneth Jeyaretnam's online writings have at least often been fairly sensible, but I am sincerely unsure at the practical political nous of the man; his embarassing 1.2% return from the Punggol East by-elections, which Herr Ahm noted at the time that he should never have poked his nose into, could well haunt him if voters thus identify the RP as the sacrificial lamb in three-corner fights. Roy Ngerng vs. the PM would be worth the price of admission alone, however!

Me: Ah yes, the "right to stand" has been raised a by former NSP sec-gen and now independent candidate for Potong Pasir.

Dr. Chang: Actually, his very first point - on being against avoiding multi-corner fights simply to spite the ruling party - is quite relevant, because it is actually a major motivator for voting Opposition, from what I can see. Herr Ahm's classification of the parties into Premium, Middle and Spoiler tiers, and the expected outcomes, was heavily predicated upon that, and likely still hold up. I reproduce the slightly-updated framework here, for convenience:

Premium Tier: Workers' Party
Straight fight vs. incumbents: 45%+
Three-cornered vs. incumbents & Middle Tier: 25%-40%
Three-cornered vs. incumbents & Spoiler Tier: 45%+

Middle Tier: Singapore Democratic Party (Mid+), National Solidarity Party, Singapore People's Party*, SingFirst (Mid-)
Straight fight vs. incumbents: 35%-45%
Three-cornered vs. incumbents & Premium Tier: 5%-15%
Three-cornered vs. incumbents & Middle Tier: 15%-30%
Three-cornered vs. incumbents & Spoiler Tier: 30%-40%
[*Premium Tier in Potong Pasir, if it still exists]

Spoiler Tier: People's Power Party, Reform Party, Singapore Democratic Alliance, Democratic Progressive Party, Independents
Straight fight vs. incumbents: 25%-35%
Three-cornered vs. incumbents & Premium Tier: <2%
Three-cornered vs. incumbents & Middle Tier: <5%
Three-cornered vs. incumbents & Spoiler Tier: 1%-35%
[*without extenuating factors]

In particular, I have taken the liberty of buffing the SDP slightly higher up in the mid-tier, if only because they actually have a clear and consistent alternative ideology. As for the newcomers, I have provisionally placed SingFirst somewhere in between the established mid-tiers and the spoiler tier from first impressions, while the PPP - well, Party in Power happened - and DPP have some convincing to do.

Back to the independent candidate. It has to be emphasized that he definitely has the right to stand, exactly as the honourable RP and SDA chiefs had in Punggol East; the point that some are trying to get across to him is that he also has the right to lose his deposit, but it's up to him.


Beginnings Of A Dual?

Dr. Chang: On to the big divide - the Workers' Party against the National Solidarity Party, over Marine Parade GRC and MacPherson SMC. It transpires that the WP had offered to stay out of MacPherson had NSP relinquished Marine Parade, which IMHO, the NSP should have grabbed with both hands.

To be brutally honest, my take is that the NSP's star has been waning since the last election cycle, with the exodus of many of their most recognizable faces, key among them Ms. Nicole Seah herself. The sticking point with Marine Parade is that they had achieved a respectable 43% against an Emeritus Senior Minister the last time around, and as such, decamping for the WP to move in would be galling, particularly if they had cultivated the ward in the past few years.

Realistically, however, the NSP's claim on the area is not particularly deep; they had not made an appearance in the three GEs preceding 2011, and their only other showing was back in 1992 - where they garnered just 1.42%, well behind the 24.5% of Chee's SDP team. My take is that the WP has calculated that their branding is now sufficiently strong to relegate the NSP to clear spoiler status, if neither budges.

Of course, from the NSP's point of view, withdrawing too easily could be taken as a sign of weakness, but the trouble is that their cards are really not all that strong. I'd say that the sensible thing for the NSP to do would be to make a show of squabbling over it, before gracefully withdrawing and concentrating on their other three constituencies. Managing to claim rights to MacPherson would be a bonus, but not critical.

Me: On this, the SDP has earned some kudos for compromise by giving up Sembawang GRC to the NSP, though some have remarked that it was a hard sell anyway.

Dr. Chang: I'd say that the Singaporean opposition landscape is driven by two considerations - on one hand, opposition parties will want to contest as many one-on-one fights against the incumbents as possible, since there is next to no chance of doing too badly in such cases. As mentioned, in the absence of other opposition, you'd just have to show up to collect 20-plus percent of the vote depending on the location, and quite possibly over 40% by being decently presentable.

Indeed, getting such opportunities to stand is a big factor in growing, or even maintaining, a party base; why would ambitious candidates join up with you, if you can't muster such an opportunity for them?

Problem is that, there are always more prospective candidates - quality not guaranteed - than one-on-one openings available, which is where the risk of being marked as a spoiler comes in. Rack up a few 2% tallies in multi-cornered fights, and it becomes easy for other parties to call your bluff: Don't want to give way, neber mind. Prepare to lose deposit lor.

Me: There's theories that a two-party system naturally arises from first-past-the-post voting, which has only been exacerbated by the unique GRC setup, which could be why at least some are concerned at a future PAP-WP duopoly, given that the WP's policies have often been described as PAP-lite - though, personally, I could live with that for now.

Dr. Chang: The biggest question on the plate, I'd say, is whether the SDP can establish themselves as a credible third column. Their true test, then, is getting a seat - even one will do - in Parliament. Their talent pipeline is coming through, and if they can get a foothold, I'd say that demographics are in their favour.


Me: Hmm, I just realised that the incumbents haven't been getting much attention...

Dr. Chang: What do you say we leave it for next week, and stop here for canapés, yes?

[To be continued...]



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