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Thursday, May 21, 2015 - 21:36 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Midweek Madness

Me: ...And here's the daily dose of anti-free speech rhetoric from The State's Times, which now mostly consists of pointing out supposed double standards in France, which however turns out to mostly hinge on Holocaust denial being illegal. Another writer then chimed in to blame free speech for actual physical attacks on Hindu temples and priests, which doesn't make any sense to me since any reasonable conception of free speech surely does not extend to physical harm - but then, it was only last month that The State's Times forum connected free speech to free rape, so it looks like progress overall.

By the way, are you done, Mr. Ham?

Mr. Ham: Relax, mon. The signal takes time to propagate - wanna join me in a game of agar.io? It'll be fun, I won't swallow your blob up. Probably.

Me: That brings back some memories. Hmm, his... car's still cruising along, and it appears that he's switched off his handphone while driving like the law-abiding little hamster he is, and you say Mr. Mallard's not picking his phone up either, so I suppose there's not much we can do. You say you've sent one of your boys after him?

Mr. Ham: Yeah, one of my best. No worries.

Me: I guess so. *continues browsing* Romney vs. Holyfield, Phil Jones being Phil Jones, Electronic Arts claims another victim... Hm, looks like others have also come to recognize the faux Frenchiness of our condo developments - I mean, twenty-seven of them of the form "D'Something"?! It's almost as if the name's taking precedence over build quality here!

Mr. Ham: No shit. *paws through tablet* Can't even trust rice to be real, nowadays; like, degrees I can understand, but fake plastic rice?! Is there even a profit margin in that?


Some wondered why I like chao fan so.
Well, now they know.
(Source: shanghaiist.com)


Me: Yeah, some sharp-minded commentators have found issue with the Ministry of Manpower's latest clever idea to allow past salary and experience to count towards a work pass for applicants with certificates from degree mills, when it might seem obvious that those willing to turn in questionable qualifications might, you know, also submit a questionable record of their employment history, all the more given that such information would be even harder to check up on!

Tangentially related to this, on the recently awarded bus operator contract which was noted to primarily incentivize cost-slashing given that revenues would be near-completely fixed - a The State's Times forum contributor could be a little optimistic in expecting that accepting a higher bid would allow any extra cash to go to the lower-level staff, instead of, say, the bus operator's top-level executives and shareholders. Well, we'll soon see.

Which brings us to the ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis, where the Ministry of Home Affairs' statement that Singapore could not take any of them in due to being "a small country with limited land", was immediately pounced on by numerous observers as being plainly nonsense, given the incumbents' indefatigable selling of their grand plan to pack another 1.5 million souls in, within the coming decade or so.

This is not to say that others don't know that it's just political-speak for "well, we do want people, but people with money, they have no money, so they die their business", but one could imagine that some of the refugees might be grateful for the opportunity to take over some of the menial jobs that we seem not to be able to fill, but yeah.

Mr. Ham: Oh, us hamsters know all about that sort of thing. Like that time I got recruited for a lab experiment, which offered a choice between grabbing goodies and saving the other participant. Bunch of cheats, they were - they didn't compensate me properly for dumping additional subjects into the water! Nothing against that in the rules!


Was that wrong? Should I not have done that?



Kra Me A River

Me: ...Anyway. It looks like we could be in for it, after the "China-Thailand Kra Infrastructure Investment & Development Co. Ltd." was reported to have signed an agreement to finally hack a canal across the Isthmus of Kra, a project centuries in the making, and which would cause our port to be bypassed altogether for shipments between Europe and the Far East.

Given the number of times that such plans have come to nothing, it was perhaps wise not to get overly worked up, and Thai and Chinese government officials have indeed denied involvement; however, the advice to "believe nothing until it has been officially denied" appears to be worth some consideration here, since the proclamations appear to have neatly sidestepped the possibility of private development, and, well, the signing parties sure look like just that.

Mr. Ham: Going through the pros and cons - the shortening of probably the major East-West shipping route could cut up to three days of sailing time, though some have noted that the savings may be rather less if a lock system is involved. This basic convenience has been recognized for hundreds of years, and remains unchanged, as is the impact to the then far-less utilized ports down the peninsular, which explains the persistent rumours that Singaporean and Malaysian interests have always been actively lobbying against it.

Me: From my understanding, not a few commentators are consoling themselves on three fronts. One, the canal will not be built; Two, even if built, it will not succeed; Three, even if it succeeds, Singapore will not be affected.


Frankly doesn't look all that hard
(Source: iims.org.uk)


Mr. Ham: *puffs on cigar* One at a time. On the not building part, some of the objections have been merely financial and technological. That is, the project would be too complicated and expensive. In my opinion, these arguments are weak. While the US$28 billion needed might seem incredible to most, one should remember that this is a China that has just committed much more than that to an alternative world bank wannabe, and whose individual tycoons can afford to lose half that sum on the stock market in an hour.

Now, don't take this as an endorsement of the Chinese economic system - their central bank is literally forcing financial institutions to continue extending loans to local governments, despite their better judgment, which would seem a good hint at how much bad debt and mutual-backscratching-malinvestment there exists under the surface, without touching the ongoing equity bubble. As one fellow so colourfully put it, all signs are that they're going to "keep f**king the 'construction to inflate productivity measures' chicken, until they only have a single feather left".

The thing is that, under all remotely-plausible ways in which the China Story could play out as, from taking over as a new global hegemon to Another Very Respectful Revolution, US$28 billion is the merest drop in a bucket. Some proper investigative journalism from a fairly reputable source on EDMW further has it that some US$6 billion worth of the necessary heavy machinery is already on its way to Thailand. As for manpower, it would be the least of their issues.

Me: Yep, I can see how the cost wouldn't be a problem.

Mr. Ham: On the Thai side, it's hard to see how they could lose out in the long term, if the project goes through. While some have suggested that the canal would symbolically cut the Patani region off from the rest of the country, and thus encourage the existing separatist movement, one imagines this reasoning to be a bit of a stretch. The lack of facilities and relevant expertise is to me a more realistic obstacle, though far from insurmountable either especially given that operating costs in the region would likely be far lower.


I'm sorry, but you're just not... big enough for me
(Source: portaldalogistica.com.br)


Me: Also, it looks like the canal could be made to accomodate some of the largest current tankers, which are unable to operate in the Straits of Malacca due to insufficient depth.

Mr. Ham: As many have pointed out, this was never quite about the commercial considerations, in any case. With the ongoing US pivot towards Asia, which includes the shady Trans-Pacific Partnership, one could imagine China being quite interested in forestalling a straightforward blockage of their oil tankers in the Straits, all the more as even Singapore appears to be on the verge of acquiring its own aircraft carrier.

Finally, as to the local impact. It has been stated that if the canal somehow comes to pass, it would still be no great shakes, since the local port accounts for "only 7%" of the GDP. Well, not much point being too pessimistic, I suppose, all the more as you lot should have a decade to prepare.

Me: Makes sense. Any updates on Mr. Robo?

Mr. Ham: *peers at screen* Not really, but he's moving pretty quickly. Little fella can sure drive, I got to say...



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