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Thursday, May 31, 2007 - 03:07 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

莫愁

The new blogskin is proving every bit as tedious to paint as I expected, although I have indeed gotten quicker; It is just that the final product keeps falling just short of my own expectations, but what can one expect from an amateur?

Well, as my Staff Sergeant in the Signals Platoon said about rifle shooting, "You have to be happy when you shoot, otherwise you'll miss" And indeed, I seem to paint better when I'm happy, which is usually in the first hour or two. Now, how do I paint a crowd of people without spending half the holidays...

In other news, the NUS team (for which I was supposed to help out with, but did next to nothing in the end) wiped the floor with the other competing universities in the ORTS Game 2 that I'm supposed to work on for UROP. Which came as a bit of a surprise, since before the competition our graduate student team leader had estimated our chances as "we won't win, but we won't be last either". How wrong he was - 315 wins out of 320 games played.

This is a bit of a problem for me, since I'll need to come out with something quite a bit better within a year, given that the other unis will doubtless have learnt from this year's entries. Interesting times ahead.



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Sunday, May 27, 2007 - 02:35 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

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CAP bAGM

Welcome to the bi-annual General Meeting of G.L.Y.S CAP Pte Ltd (GCPL), an institution that is well-positioned in the NUS grades industry. GCPL has mostly flown under the radar due to a solid but unspectacular start two-and-a-half years ago, but after a few academic periods (AP) of treading water has begun to garner higher yields, and the long-term outlook is challenging but bright.


We experienced a slight setback in the B.Comp (Com Sci) sector in the fifth AP, which was traced mostly to relatively poor performance in the A.I. Division, which had better returns projected; Progress in the mature Physics Division was difficult as expected, though the touted Problem Solving in Computing and 3D Game Programming Divisions combined to allow GCPL to satisfy its minimum revenue targets.


Overall, GCPL has bucked the normal trend of industry firms by steadily improving over time. This was a direct consequence of the revival of the Economics Division, albeit in the non-competitive B.A (Economics) sector, to the extent that it outdid the B.Comp sector this AP.

While not yet among the true elite of the grades industry, GCPL is poised to improve further after internal audits revealed key inefficiencies that have impeded the workforce this AP. For the next AP, GCPL will focus on additional product QC, aiming for a 95% Tutorial Attempt Rate, as retrograde analysis within the A.I. Division indicates that the Tutorials market is a significant predictor of eventual performance, even if it is tedious to cater to.

GCPL is also considering divesting some of its DotA assets, as these have been conclusively rated as "low-yield distractions" by insiders; This will face stiff opposition from the Morale Union, mainly on sentimental grounds, but negotiations are proceeding satisfactorily as the three-day work week experiment has been well-received.

To conclude, the management of GCPL maintains that GCPL is still on track to achieve FCH2009 Certification in three more APs, if current trends continue, failing which the lesser USCH2009 Certification would be sought before the planned IPO.



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Friday, May 25, 2007 - 02:51 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

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A Man, A Pen, A Tablet

First off, there's no palindrome in this.

So I dusted off (literally) the Wacom tablet and sat down to do some serious painting, as I figured I needed experience for a planned new blog skin, as well as my webgame. Let's see what I wanted:

1. Pseudo-professional quality, i.e. good enough that casual visitors won't puke all over their screen.
2. Speed, since I can't really afford sitting down for days for every single little piece.

On the quality side, I scoured the Internet for good CG painting tutorials. Had to find an artist whose style I admired, to begin with - some were just not up my alley. One headache later, I stumbled upon the excellent work of one Mattias Snygg, who more importantly had bothered to throw together some tutorials for the uninitiated (i.e. me). Randis Albion's another inspiration to work towards, though I doubt I'll even begin to approach that level anytime soon; His astounding (but sadly not too informative) video demonstration really took my breath away.

After some gaping, I figured that I had to start somewhere, and loaded my copy of Corel Painter Essentials and hacked away, following Snygg's advice. Soon enough I was rudely reminded that the cut-price Painter Essentials had exactly five levels of undo only, and had to more or less restart. I also learnt that the sloping surface of a graphics tablet is not the best place to place its pressure pen.

My first attempt at tablet painting took me... five hours? Hopefully I'll speed up a lot as I continue. Not sure about the bewildering array of brushes available, so I used the Blender Brush for almost everything.


Step 1 | Step 2 | Step 3 | Step 4 | Step 5 | Step 6
The Learning Of The Wise

Stopped here, although a lot more improvement is of course possible. Contrast also tweaked abit

I know, I know, it's a bunch of mistakes, my virgin effort okay? Quit ROFL already. I dread the time when I've to do hair...



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Monday, May 21, 2007 - 21:54 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Bet Or No Bet

The first season of my personal $100 Challenge has concluded, with not-too-stellar results:


Weak finish

172.5072.50
2120.80193.30
355.00248.30
461.10309.40
5159.50468.90
6112.50581.40
7135.60717.00
8120.00837.00
9129.50966.50
1074.001040.50
110.001040.50
1266.001106.50
1386.251192.75
14176.101368.85
1530.001398.85
16166.001564.85
1736.601601.45
180.001601.45
19146.501747.95
2041.701789.65
210.001789.65
2234.001823.65
230.001823.65
2466.001889.65
25117.602007.25
260.002007.25
2752.002059.25
280.002059.25

It began decently enough, with a profit being shown between the seventh and tenth weeks, and held firm until approximately the halfway mark, from which it all went pear-shaped. Though no real-life bank accounts were harmed in this study, the question of why a net loss was incurred, and how to rectify this issue, remains.

A few seconds of thought by a team of one provided some possibilities:

1. Temporal Freedom of "Investment"

The strict rules of the $100 Challenge force a constant sum to be wagered each week, regardless of whether the punter would actually be happy with the matchups on offer. In reality, when faced with a hodgepodge of unsavory bets, wise punters should keep their wallets firmly in their pocket, and not blow it on some Wigan vs Sheffield United roll of the dice. This has some parallels with the stock market, where it likely is easier to cash in on clear bull or bear markets than in times of uncertainty.

Revisions for Season Two: Taken to the extreme, there is nothing to stop someone from accumulating his betting capital until the final week, and then blow it on an all-or-nothing bet - which wouldn't make for much interesting reading. Therefore, a compromise system is adopted - for the next season, there will be an inflow of $100 each week, as with now, but I can opt to use any sum from $0 to $200 (drawing upon past reserves, if available).

2. Heart over Head

There have been a few too many unprofessional "Man Utd (-1.5) pwnage" and consolatory "reverse bets" in this edition of the Challenge. Sentiment really shouldn't come into it, and too often I've used it as an excuse.

Revisions for Season Two: I considered putting a hard cap on how much I could wager on United or their immediate rivals, but that would be an artificial handicap, considering that those are some of the teams about which I know the most. Therefore, no action other than a reminder not to fall into the same trap again.

3. House Wins

Or more bluntly, "Suckage at Betting". Actually, there isn't a need to be too worked up at this, since the odds guarantee that only the bookmakers laugh their way to the bank eventually. However, the laws of probability also ensure that there will be some big winners, and on the flipside, some bigger losers; This holds even when the game in question is of pure chance, which football punting arguably is not.

I recall an episode in the Kingdom of Loathing when a player claimed to have a winning strategy for the Meat-Making Game, which is simply a coin-flipping game, and he did in fact have the record to back it up. However, he claimed that it was due to a "secret system". Barring a highly-improbable defect in the industrial-quality random-number generator that the game uses, it would be a coincidence, no more or less, and with sufficient participants even outrageous outcomes become extremely likely.

Consider flipping ten coins, and getting heads on all of them; Granted that statistically a coin comes up in the same orientation slightly more often (~51%), the chances of getting ten heads out of ten is approximately 1 in 210, or ~0.1%.

With ten people trying, the chance that one (or more) of them gets ten heads is already about 1% (1-0.99910). With a hundred people, the chance is about 10%, with a thousand people about 63%, and with ten thousand people a virtual certainty (99.995%). Someone will hit the jackpot, and may have any number of theories on why he did; Without sounding too dismissive, the major reason would be the favour of She of Green Eyes - Lady Luck.

Revisions for Season Two: Take over Singapore Pools. No seriously, it's part and parcel of this industry, so just suck it up.

But are the bookmakers always infallible? Generally, no - in theory, any old punter can make a guaranteed profit from the big bad betting houses. This is a consequence of there being multiple bookmakers, who often have slightly different odds on sporting events, and has its roots in economics. Wikipedia (as usual) has a short overview of arbitrage betting.

Responsibly enough, Wikipedia warns of the very real risks of default, and in practice pretty large sums have to be wagered to bring about a respectable return. Using the 2% quoted as "typical", an initial outlay of $5000 is needed to take in $100. Doubtless there will be more "invisible" cuts in the form of fees and taxes, so the final gains could be even lower. Caveat bettor!



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Monday, May 21, 2007 - 01:12 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

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No Butts About It


Giggs' irrepressible bottom meets a very movable Cech

The Boys in Blue got their consolation prize, but only due to the legendary Giggs' powerful posterior being overlooked by the referee. Drogba's deft touch settled it later on, and Chelski had enough moments of their own to, in Alvin's words, cause "ball shrinkage", but this was really the moment that lost it for United. I have yet to figure out why their defensive line stands off opposition attackers even with a numerical advantage, too. Do they have that much confidence in van der Sar to pick up those not-so-long shots?

Granted, Giggs should have done much better and simply poked it into the net, but even after fluffing his first chance he followed through and sent the ball (albeit together with the goalkeeper) over the goalline. True, it could have been construed as a foul, though from my knowledge football players are allowed some physical leeway, especially when the ball is there to be won; Strength has always been a part of the game, when not applied indiscriminately (case in point: Rooney), like in other sports (case in point: Big Shaq buttgrinding his way to slam dunks). But, and here's the kicker - a foul was never given! And if no whistle goes and the ball crosses the goalline, what is it other than a goal?


You tell me why

Nevertheless, it has still been a magnificent season for Man Utd. If you had asked most fans before the season if they would take a Premiership title, a Champions League semi-final and a FA Cup final, they would likely have grabbed it with both hands. If Scholes keeps his form - and he's the first player I would choose to land a pass in a garbage bin from fifty metres if my life depended on it - then there are only a few pieces of the jigsaw remaining to make another formidable United side.

One of those pieces is probably on his way to Old Trafford even as I type: Owen Hargreaves, defensive midfielder extraordinaire. He won't come cheap - no one comes cheap to United - yet even eighteen million pounds would be a bargain if he repeats his World Cup performances. In the longer term, someone will be needed to step into Giggs and Scholes' boots, but for next season the biggest priority after Hargreaves must be a mobile and lethal finisher. van Nistelrooy was without peer at poaching goals in the box, but wasn't exactly the hardest worker outside it, and ended up looking out of sorts in United's quicksilver attack. Rooney and Smith are scrappers, but don't exactly snap up chances. Rooney in particular has the infuriating habit of making wundergoals look easy, but messing up the sitters.

For now, United can be content with the trophy that everyone really wants :)


This victory will doubtless attract more glory hunters to the flag, but actually that's okay; Many fans started out by hitching onto a successful team's bandwagon, including myself. Hands up, those of you who know an Oxford United supporter. It's when a person keeps switching to the latest "in-team" that they lose my respect. Rather pointless to do that, right? When a person never loses, likely he is playing the wrong game. And we shouldn't take ourselves too seriously, either. Take it from one of the greatest goalies ever to grace the game:




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Friday, May 18, 2007 - 04:11 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

- -
Whassup

It's been two weeks since my final paper, and only one blog posting. How disappointing. Partly, it has been due to the data entry thingy, but mainly it just has been me not getting into the mood to blog. It has been said, "If one has talent and energy, one can be a king". I do not know if I have any talent worth the name, but it is certain that I could do with more energy and enthusiasm.

Indeed I had more when I was younger - when I was ten or eleven, I had the patience to write my own (sadly lost) gamebooks, covering hundreds of exercise book pages. But now I can hardly find it within myself to bring my long-delayed webgame to completion. How many years has passed since I planned it? Six? Seven? The days pass more quickly than I remember, and so many of those hours have simply been frittered away, even in those critical examination periods; Somewhere along the way I have lost the will to excel above all others, being content to understand the overarching ideas but not delve into the details, nor really practice to ace the papers - if I feel i have a decent chance of making an A, that was sufficient.

In truth, I have no right to make myself so small. I am not big enough. Where then can I recover that killer edge? Not when my heart remains weighed down, surely, though those be chains of my own making, a sweet sorrow borne both helplessly and willingly. No night has passed where I remained unaware of it, and my only answer thus far has been blind tenacity - if I am nothing, at least I can be stubborn, and each kind of stubborness has its own champions; If I tire when I run, I will have to walk, and indeed in that area I leave much to be desired - but when I walk I do not stop. It could be a road without an end, but only those who can be afraid may be called brave. Courage, man! Either that, or a cowardly dog.

But enough of this unhappy stuff. The stint at the LAN shop office was pretty enjoyable, even if the attempt at earning extra bucks never came to pass:


Folded due to insufficient customers


Top Left: Inside view of the LAN shop workplace
Top Right: My very own mini-cubicle
Bottom Left: One of the games offered
Bottom Right: Bowling and hydration in one

This period also spawned a masterpiece of contemporary art:


Unnamed (Slavedriver No. 1) by Wenhoo

No doubt it will someday fetch a pretty price, given modern tastes; In my estimation, it is comparable to Mark Rothko's celebrated White Center (Yellow, Pink & Lavender), which Rockefeller recently sold for over US$72 million:


Modest indication of future value

My stomach didn't lose out either - twm drove us to Niqqi's the Cheese Prata Shop one of those days, where I tried my first Milo Dinosaur (which appeared thick enough, contrary to this source - but I'll have to sample others to be sure). To round off a job well done, smk the boss treated us to Canadian 2 For 1 pizza on the last day - Hawaiian Classic, Tandoori Chicken, Teriyaki Chicken and BBQ Chicken. Been quite some time since I last ate pizza. Delicious.



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Thursday, May 10, 2007 - 23:54 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

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Zzz Zzz Zzz

Haven't had a decent night's sleep since my final paper came and went on May 3 - got back the ol' data entry job starting May 4, and since then I've been hitting the sack at 2 or 3 a.m. and waking at 8+. Not a recipe for freshness. Worse, the deadline for the ORTS AI competition is June 1, so that's probably the whole month shot. Yay me.

Gotta sleep ASAP, but here's a new fave song of mine, after I heard it being played during work: La Isla Bonita by Madonna. Twenty years old, but good as gold. As with all my new fancies, I'll have it on loop for quite a while :P

...And when the samba played
The sun would set so high
Ring through my ears and sting my eyes
Your Spanish lullaby...

And not forgetting,

Glory, glory Manchester United! 16 times EPL champions!



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Tuesday, May 01, 2007 - 23:34 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Floating Bridge Go Fist

One floating (Singaporean) bridge multi-player game done, after I got bored waiting for my last paper. Beware of me when I'm bored.


Mangamangamanga

Got some manga to help me pass the long hours of waiting to start studying microeconomics, and finished two series - Fist of the North Star and Hikaru No Go. I got reminded of FOTNS from an article in the news about Raoh's funeral, though he was gone in the manga for a long time now. As befitting a classic, the manga was quite touching at some points, though moderately violent.

As for Hikaru No Go, there wasn't exactly a lot of Go explained in it, which was slightly disappointing. Go's mystique stems partly from the fact that computers can't play it much better than rank beginners, whilst other games like chess and checkers have been more or less conquered. It does appear so - I downloaded GNU Go, supposedly one of the stronger programs out there, and soundly kicked its ass (though with a nine-stone advantage). Future research project?



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