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Saturday, Aug 10, 2013 - 18:35 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Long Long Weekend


Abridged Weekly Rant

In view of it being National Day week, I'll zip through it.

For a start, it looks to be the end, with our former Minister Mentor disavowing the past Stop At Two campaign having an effect on our demographic bust, and revealing that he has washed his hands of the problem. But in a testament to his battle-tested vision, the eldest statesman added that if it were up to him, he would introduce a Baby Bonus equal to two years of the average Singaporean's salary.

Now, using data from 2012, the median (likely lower than average) monthy income was S$3480, making this bonus worth S$83520 - but let's not fixate on the details, and consider it a round S$80000. Fittingly, a suggestion made here about this time last year was for an extra S$200 a month for twelve years - a mere S$28000 - which only goes to show that our founding father isn't shy about placing chips on the table.

But, he says, the point would not be to drag the birth rate up, but to demonstrate that monetary incentives won't work (much), which strangely appears to contradict the justification for just about every other policy of the administration.

Now, personally, if it were actually implemented, I think he might enjoy a pleasant surprise, but given the "at least one year" rider already slyly tacked on (which would give maybe three months for enterprising parents to bake their buns), and the prevailing "generous (one time) subsidy/rebate on high basic prices (with restrictions)" culture, without even going into how our "slew" of Baby Bonuses often winds up being worth rather less than what it says on the can, the truism that when the government gives a drumstick, it takes back a whole chicken, might well be kept in mind.

Here's what I expect on the small print if it were actually tried, just for the sake of I-told-you-so on the part of those in charge:

  • S$80000 considered as upgrade to the current package (on the off-chance that the current package is valued less than that - actually, it's already promoted as being worth well over S$83000 a child; see page 24), and not as an additional incentive
  • Heavily weighted towards matching accounts (as it is currently) - put in a dollar to get a dollar
  • Implemented as tax rebate (again, currently the case)
  • Implemented as voucher system
  • Money goes into specialized accounts, that in practice can only be drawn on by the government themselves, or GLCs (who will then raise prices, as there's nowhere else for the money to be sucked)
  • Money goes into the CPF locker (this one winner)
  • Money goes into the kid's CPF (you laugh. don't laugh)

So, repeating last year's call, and with the blessing of the most respected Singaporean politician ever this time - to relieve our baby shortage, S$80000 for each new arrival, on top of current incentives, paid upfront, in cold hard cash. Onz boh?


Soon to come: shoebox homes good for interaction
(Source: Cute Overload)


One of our old policies was however slightly justified by recent research indicating that every additional 15 I.Q. points reduces the urge for women to have kids by a quarter, which likely goes hand-in-hand with their increased earning capacity (though this still applies after correcting for education), combined with an indefatigable habitual hypergamy. Notably, this effect does not extend to men, whose little brothers were often found to be extremely persuasive when confronted with a sufficiently cute specimen (though not even widespread plastic surgery has quite fixed it for the South Koreans)

In any case, this year's NDP message was the usual packed-with-platitudes motherhood statements (e.g. "So we must reassess our position, review our direction", "We will set goals and work out plans to realise these aspirations"), which might have been welcomed in the past, but not too reassuring when the reaction to possibly deep-rooted malaises mostly seems to involve haphazardly chopping off the heads of lower-ranked fall guys, while basically nothing happens.

Well, if they're gonna change (ha), they could start with the subsidy mindset of "we're giving stuff, you're having it good, why would you complain?", the implication being that the government is a benevolent big brother, and the masses are indebted handout grubbers who should be very grateful.

Since we're being run as a business, an analogy might be in order - childcare, public transport, housing, etc being stated to be "subsidized", makes about as much sense as the management and sales wing of a firm grumbling that they are underwriting the R&D and manufacturing departments, and insisting that they should man up and pay their own way. You know, in most places, that would be called "investment".

Thing is, the schizophrenic dual-personality model being sold - an economically laissez-faire company when all's well, but a cohesive nation when things go south - can only go so far.

It all looks too much like the classic Four-Stage Strategy (made aware of from a friend's Facebook post):



In stage one we say nothing is going to happen (pre-1990s)

Stage two, we say something may be about to happen,
but we should do nothing about it (1990s to present day)

In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do
(Former MM Lee, this week)

Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now
(2016/2021 incumbent election manifesto)

[Extra: spot logical oversight in commentary]


Preseason Wrap

It's looking increasingly like United won't be making any big signings in this window, which may however be sensible enough given the crazy sums being bandied about (and not helped by lowballing Barcelona for Fabregas after Thiago had gone). Forty million pounds for Suarez? A hundred million euros for Gareth Bale, when they already have Ronaldo?! Hopefully Moyes can keep Rooney happy.

The only thing more incredible than these figures, is the fact that Tottenham and Liverpool are not snatching them and running off, but then it may be that they think they can get away with even more - and they might, frighteningly, be right.

It's not called the silly season for nothing.

Other sporting note: maximal athletic performance might be partly genetically determined. Yes, like just about everything, but the more interesting part is that the rate of improvement is likewise non-guaranteed. Bah, more protein then.


Out And About

A poster of a JC pal of mine outside the lab. Small world.

It hasn't been a very productive NDP lead-in as originally planned, with social calls making themselves felt. Wednesday night saw the return of vintage DotA at Cineleisure, with the usual *SCAPE LAN shop closed for renovations. Discovered just how badly an unfamiliar keyboard layout can affect play, and how much of a pain holding down the Alt-key to display unit health bars was.

Thursday was a family drive about the less-developed northwest (the ancestral home on the maternal side is now within an army camp), before some durian and wings at the rather unheralded Farmart.


Dog with shades and style


Hearty dinner (sponsored by my sis, thanks!) followed, before my first prolonged visit to the newly-opened Jem - which wound up to be like just about any other modern shopping centre... and still packed. Helped the economy along by picking up a S$2 chapteh at The Good Old Days. Had a go with it at home, only to find it a drag quite quickly, despite being able to keep at it for literally hours during my secondary school days. The perils of growing up.

It did feel slightly heavier and fluffier, kind of like a footbag, but that's probably just me. Worse, Mr. Fish was nowhere to be found after that, while the chapteh somehow got into the hamster domicile. Hey, I was kind of tired.


Human, this is a sign that something has gone very, very wrong


Friday, and a last meetup with our budding neuroscientist before his return to America. S$22 for a bowl of ramen is probably on the pricey side, but the Tao Kuro was worth it (as a once-in-a-long-while thing), and brought back memories besides. Must be the broth that makes it so comforting.

Passed a bunch of NDP attendees on the bus to Marina Square, where we shared a six-pack of Sapporo beer, and I nearly even finished mine. The rest of us then left csq there with his Love @ Risk drama, and the empty cans for maximal drown-your-sorrows image, to watch That Girl in Pinafore.

It was poignant and funny in about equal measure, with some well-hidden morals. Take the early bit where the boys pursued their lad-mag rental business, with their customers emerging fully satisfied from the toilets, before a bully and his hangers-on exposed it because they didn't get a cut? Stifled entrepreneurship and cutthroat rentals, that's what! Not that such an endeavour could get off the ground nowadays thanks to the Internet, but it's the whole principle of it.

Also of note were the reactions of the fathers to their sons getting girlfriends. While the doctor spoke of complications due to social class and religion, you could almost feel the hawker and florist flashing thumbs-ups and patting Junior on the back while mouthing "You go, boy!", as they handed out condoms, displaying great good parenting sense (though note too that Dr. Doctor was hardly against it either, just the specifics). Biggest tearjerker moment of the film for me. *sniff*



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