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Saturday, Mar 19, 2016 - 21:54 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Convo Over Coffee

*Herr Ahm slowly stirs his kopi-o*

Me: It all went about as anticipated, I get it?

Herr Ahm: Yup. The Don won five of the six Super Twosday states and territories, and Rubio may be quitting politics altogether after losing his own Florida by 18%. Mr. Ham was going to carry on with his GOP commentary about this political equivalent of being stomped into a fine paste, but held off because it was getting too damn sad.

Me: I suppose it's time to say nice things about Rubio - fine enough guy, family man like Bush, but just so... manufactured.

Herr Ahm: And, the TRUMP TRAIN is showing no signs of slowing - he's just broken the 50% national support barrier, with bookies long since paying out on his nomination. Not only that, he's clearly turned his eye towards the big prize, with this viral attack ad on Hillary:


No, not voice-dubbed.


Me: Yeah, it seems like Obama's getting concerned - I didn't want to point out our little imaginative scrawlings from Wednesday, but it sure looks like he understands what's up. Despite being opposed by just about all the traditional power centres of the GOP, TRUMP's popular vote share has been similar to their previous mainstream-consensus candidates. A not unrealistic scenario where TRUMP rouses the non-college-educated white vote to high but hardly unprecedented levels, would comfortably deliver the Presidency, even assuming that the minority vote does rally strongly against him.

Herr Ahm: Indeed, one issue for the Democrats is that they are already close to maxing out the black vote - 93% went for Obama in 2012, with a 66% turnout rate, a full 2% higher than whites. Basically, TRUMP's value proposition is that his target constituency actually has the greatest potential for "instant growth", given how demotivated they were before.

And, quick comment on favorability ratings, which has become a favourite refuge of #NeverTrumpers - the most straightforward counterpoint would be Bernie himself, who has consistently been crushing Hillary in national favorability polls: +11.4% against -12.3%, as of today. And yet, Bernie has equally consistently been losing badly at the ballot box. But how can this this so? It bears some thinking about, doesn't it?

You can almost see the banners of the ORANGE TRIBE gathering, and that's hardly the end of it either. If Obama boasted a "minority awakening", TRUMP's edge would be his MEME MAGIC, all the more as many of his positions are actually objectively pretty darn popular with the Reddit demographic. Add in a Troll Vanguard from 4chan, a few divisions of Reformed Sandersinistas sick of being third-degree Bern victims, and maybe even some defectors from the GOP Elite, and the Don could well ride this all the way.

Me: Frankly, the Bernie movement is getting less and less appealing by the day - it's one thing watching college students dipping their toes into advocacy, but it's degenerating into mere vandalism and outright brigading seemingly all the time now. Bernie himself is down to trying to poach superdelegates, and I'll just say that abandoning the high ground in desperation tends to turn out badly - see Rubio.

Herr Ahm: Yeah, TRUMP can get away with shooting his mouth off, because, well, that's him - or at least, his public persona. Rubio trying to respond in kind was like meeting TRUMP on his home field, and it scuttled what little chance he had left.


Copying doesn't pay... most of the time.
[Twin Theme, just 'cause]


Me: Seriously, it's amazing how much of this election season can be predicted, when you know a few pro wrestling storylines; hey, the WWE's yugest stars tend towards being some flavour of "bad guy antihero" - Stone Cold, The Rock...

Herr Ahm: *shuffles papers* There will be ample time to think about it, with the pace of primaries slowing - Arizona and Utah are up next Tuesday, and TRUMP will almost certainly sweep the former. And as for Utah, it would be hilarious if Cruz and Kasich - who, by the way, is mathematically unable to gain the nomination outright - block each other yet again in one of their few remaining favourable states, after all those machinations.

Me: Which brings us to Hillary - she's seriously exuding an... overprepped vibe. A commentator hit it on the head when he wondered if "she focus-groups what she eats for breakfast", which can come off badly against TRUMP's natural charisma. Crossing one's t's and dotting i's is good, don't get me wrong, but it's not how one connects with voters.

Also, the anti-PC backlash has been a long time in coming, and I'd wager that not a few are getting tired of tippy-toeing about trying not to offend. Crude rhetoric aside, TRUMP's record is actually - gasp - quite progressive. Does a misogynist hire a woman to oversee construction back in 1980? Does a racist fund a basketball tournament in a majority-black neighbourhood? Does a "modern-day Hitler" have Jewish grandkids and serve as Grand Marshal to the Salute to Israel parade?

Herr Ahm: *adjusting glasses* According to my foolproof analysis, it comes down to jealousy over his big dick. Okay, his supporters are probably a teeny bit racist, which likely cost him a couple of delegates in Illinois. But, big picture here...


Of Low Standing

Herr Ahm: Let's leave something on the table for next time, and return to the local scene: the judgment on the PM's defamation suit against blogger Roy Ngerng has been made, and it comes to S$150000, payable in instalments of S$100 per month for the first five years, and S$1000 per month thereafter, not including a S$30000 payment upfront.

*flipping through papers again* Anyway, the analysis on this had already been made back in June 2014, when the lawsuit was first filed; the conclusion reached then was that it would not look too good for the incumbents, if Ngerng managed to cover the damages through grassroots fundraising... which is what is happening, with over S$20000 raised in barely four days. While the rate of donations is probably somewhat slowed from back when the CPF issue was all the rage, there is nothing to suggest that he can't pull S$100 a month from his many sympathizers, for the foreseeable future.

Me: Eh, after the decision to sue was taken, this was probably about the best outcome available. The S$100 a month stipulation was a nice touch, but the point here should be that there remain some very real questions over the CPF.

Herr Ahm: Thing is, you can't really crush dissent like in the old days any longer, at least not if you aren't willing to become a North Korea-level "utopia". Sadly, many countries such as Turkey, but most importantly China, are still down for going the media-muzzling route. Xi Dada's grand plan in particular appears to be consolidating power as the second coming of Mao, in order to be able to put in place... no reforms, because Everything Is All Right and What's A Bit More Debt? Though, there might be opportunity in it for Singapore...

Me: The yuan has strengthened slightly, but then the tough bit about shorting was always the timing. The Fed delaying rate rises, as projected, as well as good ol' capital controls should buy some time, but one has to suspect there's more to come... eventually. They're certainly not skimping on the football, though, as they prepare for the future with perhaps the biggest academy in the world. However, given that all sixteen opening weekend goals in the domestic league were scored by foreigners, creativity may remain... rare.

Back home, Bernd Stange has resigned, but, uh, it's hard to get worked up - Mourinho did pop over, and he must be fancying his chances of taking over at United. Oh, and FIFA confessed that they took bribes, and can they have the money back please? That's some chutzpah right there!


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The Dragonborn Comes


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