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Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024 - 01:34 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Annual Leave

Catching up on some life milestones...



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Thursday, Aug 08, 2024 - 23:16 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

One More Thing Off That List



Haven't picked up a softball/baseball bat since those CCA introductory sessions back in high school, but I can see how it can be fun. Note that the pitching machine is on maybe 70km/h (approximately 45mph) here, or easy mode. At about 112km/h (70mph) one can clearly hear the (admittedly dimpled practice ball) whoosh by (since the hit rate on those was probably less than one in five... for now), which puts the 100mph+ fastballs at the professional level in context. Should probably pack a pair of batting gloves for next time!



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Tuesday, July 30, 2024 - 23:32 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

An Oddly Specific Denial


It was just a joke, man...
[N.B. Seems like the shooter researched JFK's assassination.]
(Source: gizmodo.com)


About concurrent with the FBI director not even being certain of whether the once and future POTUS had, in fact, been struck by a bullet (before figuring it out later), TRUMP has demonstrated his commitment to efficiency by promising the electorate that they won't have to vote ever again, if (when) he gets elected. What a time-saver, in keeping with the Roman timeline!


"It could never happen!"
[N.B. I mean, what are you gonna do, Et tu Brute Biden him?
Not that it hasn't just been tried already, mind...]




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Wednesday, July 24, 2024 - 22:21 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

State Of Synth

Coming alongside national guidelines on the generation of synthetic data, some possible applications:


By Kuaishou's Kling AI, worthy Sora competitor


Oh, and recall when "control of the rules" was discussed before Turn 12, Action Round 1 back in September 2022? BRICS is now being proposed* as an alternative rule maker in global governance - so, Blue Rulebook or Red Rulebook?

[*Note explicit use of Twilight Struggle terms, "Control and Influence"; also, such concepts have been capitalized in previous posts for emphasis, just in case it was missed.]



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Thursday, July 18, 2024 - 23:29 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

A Van For My Pen

History - and the promised interesting times - continues its relentless march, and given that everybody has probably seen that iconic photograph (already on T-shirts and tattoos within hours), this post will largely address the (conspiracy) theory that the attempted assassination was staged. Mind, this is hardly a fringe hypothesis, from how the obvious parallel with Chen Shui-bian's twenty years ago was immediately raised on local forums, with the former Taiwanese president chipping in.

As a chap who's been through the whole conscription and rifle training shebang (and who's programmed an SAF range simulation back in 2011, for those interested) on much the same AR15 variant used (and actually paid for a refresher in Vegas a few months back), I daresay nobody's going to be particularly confident of hitting what amounts to maybe a quarter-inch target, from some 150 yards, Wild West legends included. Accuracy under optimal conditions appears to be closer to two inches at that distance, which largely rules out intentionally clipping an ear; a mere eighth of an inch to the right, and it could have been very different.


An inch as good as a mile
[N.B. Video simulation also available]
(Source: instagram.com)


Discounting the more-outlandish assertions of our former WWE Hall of Famer GEOTUS blading himself as a second sharpshooter did the deed before finishing off the MKULTRA-ed patsy (shades of JFK here), one can almost attribute the outcome to divine providence, were there no other unfortunate victims (and lingering partisanship). Echoing Teddy Roosevelt, our Glorious Bull Merchant himself would duly attend an upbeat Republican National Convention the next day as scheduled, ear demurely bandaged, and announce J.D. Vance as his running mate.

While rooting for Gabbard myself, Vance does make plenty of sense as a link to the Midwest and Middle America, before going into the savings involved* in retaining 80% of previous campaign signs (note the former VP and once-Republican leaders such as Bush, Romney, Cheney and Ryan all not attending, as TRUMP completes the realignment and rebirth of the GOP), and how it showcases GEOTUS's uncanny ability to convert non-believers, with Biden nearly going MAGA in the aftermath. As it is, TRUMP has already managed to get Taiwan to increase their defence budget as POTUS goes down with Covid instead - perhaps a sign from the Lord Almighty then?


[*Also recalling the one red paperclip stunt, in which a blogger started by trading the eponymous paperclip for a pen in Vancouver, before working his way up to a truck (close enough?). The final trade from a film role to a farmhouse does seem a little abrupt, in the vein of apple-polishing jokes.]



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Sunday, July 07, 2024 - 23:34 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Path To 47

Our new Prime Minister has kickstarted his tenure with declarations that Singaporeans should be able to define their own success, and exhorted local youths to "focus on mega trends rather than try to predict the next big thing". On the latter, I confess to not being sure as to what was the difference between a "mega trend" and the "next big thing", but fortunately the article would provide something of an explanation - "next big thing" equals "next big growth industry" (implied to be something that's not currently big, but could be), while "mega trend" refers to something that will shape the world (for the foreseeable future; i.e. something that's already big, and should continue being big)

About this, one could almost sense the raw and unclosed wounds from our government's past non-successes at picking the next big thing, with IT and biotech being past focuses that have not quite paid off, leaving money laundering finance and lately fintech to prop up the economy. The first question would then be, is artificial intelligence indeed a "mega trend", or will it be another case of "next hyped big thing soon going bad" (and I say this as someone with a career in it), as the Internet was circa 2000? The second question - or more an observation - would be that in general, the largest gains come from being first to the party (i.e. correctly picking the next big thing), rather than (literally) being a trend-follower; but perhaps the gahment has realised that they don't have good foresight, in which case I applaud them recognizing their limitations.

But seriously, this is not a knock on the government, not at all - given that there may be very interesting times ahead, it's entirely rational to cut them some slack, as compared to when we were merrily cruising along in a unipolar world - which brings us to The Second Greatest Game on Earth:


The loved ones are out in force, as hinted last week
[N.B. There's a ready replacement able to drive in multiple ways anyway]
(Source: x.com)


Age gets the best of us, even someone as ground-breaking as the first black lady President of the United States, which has seen an outpouring of love from both private citizens and the corporate media, with the likes of The Atlantic, The Economist and the Washington Post all but begging Biden to withdraw and/or resign, after yet more incoherent interviews. The growing farce has raised some long-overdue soul-searching amongst observers, the most incisive of which was perhaps that either the FAKE NEWS mainstream media knew of POTUS's obvious mental decline and said nothing (or outright denied it), which kinda makes them corrupt liars; or that they genuinely didn't realise it, which means that they are entirely deluded. The original commentator reckons the second possibility the more likely, which unfortunately is a far more damning reflection on the state of American intellectual discourse.

Anyhow, the latest indication is that Biden is refusing to drop out against pressure from the Democratic party establishment, and in other, happier, circumstances, one might well applaud his gumption. However, with polls all but uniformly showing his support collapsing all over, with TRUMP now holding a near four percent advantage on average in the top battleground states - and this from polling that has consistently underestimated his support by about four percent in 2020 - one understands if Team Blue Democrats are panicking a little. I honestly don't think the usual censorship and gaslighting is going to salvage this one, and all that bellyaching about how democracy is done if TRUMP gets (re-)elected might just ring a bit hollow, when WaPo's own poll is reporting that voters are trusting TRUMP more than Biden on protecting democracy in the United States:


Well this is awkward
[N.B. Despite Biden's protestations, Harris has overtaken him in the betting stakes, and is now at 5/1 to Biden's 7/1 to win the election; TRUMP is at 8/13, implying a win probability of some 62%, likely an underestimate.]
(Source: washingtonpost.com)


While there's scant indication that he needs the help right now, the Team Red GOP Vice-Presidential selection has suddenly taken on additional significance, and I am proud to report that my early-2020 endorsement of Tulsi Gabbard has been vindicated several times over, with the ultra-cool former Democrat stating that she would be honoured to join GEOTUS on the Republican ticket, which however was frankly always the obvious route for her, after (not inaccurately) denouncing the Dems as "an elitist cabal of warmongers" two years ago. One can hardly imagine a better specimen of rational and dutiful American womanhood to become the first - or is that second? - female POTUS in due course!



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Sunday, June 30, 2024 - 22:48 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Character Studies

The fallout continues with Malaysia and Thailand's sudden recent interest in joining Team Red's BRICS+, which has been described as "unexpected" - and this with Southeast Asian Team Red mainstays Myanmar and Laos having already registered their interest last year. Considering this, our Foreign Minister's (concerned-seeming) statement that "there is no substitute for ASEAN" on Wednesday, might then be understood based on our "alphabet soup" bodies analysis from May 2022, then referring to America/Team Blue's IPEF.

As Dr. Balakrishnan undoubtedly recognizes, this is a sign of "various blocs concentrating more and more of their rewards within their exclusive 'friend groups'*" and undermining of (more-neutral) organizations (i.e. ASEAN, in this case), as we projected two years ago. Well, the in-depth commentary on the consequences - and perhaps some additional juicy tidbits - will have to wait until the event gets its airing in Twilight Struggle: New Moon, but suffice to say that it's all been going as expected, including our prediction of there being "plenty more utter FAKE NEWS bullshit" about the Pandemic Game, back from January. It shouldn't need to be said, but the revelations on the U.S. military backstabbing their erstwhile Filipino allies on coronavirus vaccines might well have contributed to ASEAN nations doing an about-turn on the Blues...

On a personal note, one of my dates had recently commented on my not smiling much, to which I have got to say that if a guy expects half of what I'm projecting - which is generally on sound basis - he wouldn't be grinning much either. I mean, if it would make you feel better, I could pretend to be surprised; but I must warn you that I'm not a very good actor.


How it's going
(Original source: theonion.com**)


Anyway, the U.S. Presidential election season has finally been heating up once more, and I had resolved to watch at least part of the first debate on Thursday. Well, I have to admit to not using YouTube much these days, and was embarassingly unable to find a livestream. Instead, I settled on watching two fine elderly gentlemen discuss their golf handicaps, which on hindsight was a much-needed departure from doomscrolling politics. Given that the New York Times pled for President Biden to drop out in their op-ed the next day, however, I'm guessing it didn't go too well for him.

On perusing the recording of the debate, I was reminded of my granddad's decline in the lead-up to his overturning his van, and really there's a time for every man - if he lives long enough - that his loved ones should really pat him on the back, and take away his car keys. However, the dilemma for Team Blue Democrats in the American Minigame is that they don't have a ready replacement - Harris is not exactly an inspiring candidate, as analyzed in March 2020 (alongside correctly projecting her being picked as VP), but there may be creative solutions available. Considering that the next POTUS may well be the one to have to give the "long twilight struggle" speech for this generation, some baseline level of energy is called for.

[*Note OpenAI blocking China in the meantime. Anyway, I heartily propose that the organizers just simulate the remaining debates with A.I. language and voice models - it's definitely more entertaining, and probably no less informative.]

[**The Babylon Bee has probably overhauled them, though.]



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