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Saturday, Feb 06, 2010 - 15:33 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

The Numbers Game

"When I was a child, I used to pray to God for a bicycle.
But then I realized that God doesn't work in that way -
so I stole a bike and prayed for forgiveness!"

- Emo Phillips


1.7

Plenty happened the previous week - to begin with, I backed up my entire Gmail account, all 1.7GB of it (attachments included) in EML format, to disk with the handy Gmail Backup. This is just in case some disgruntled Chinese hacker cabal manages to do a number on the Google server farms, see. On the more academic side of things, I thought it appropriate to attend a speech processing seminar, only to discover, after half an hour of sitting in an empty room, that it had shifted next door. Grr.

The module itself is proceeding well enough at least, and I've finally put my print quota to good use by dashing out a few hundred pages of recommended readings (not yet touched). Several pet questions like the Monty Hall problem and the Pirates Voting problem resurfaced, and I embarrassingly got caught out by the seemingly simple probabilistic problem of the eventual distribution of babies in a society where parents would have kids until they had a girl (it's half)

One of the more exciting applications of speech recognition so far would probably be the detection of the language spoken, without necessarily detecting the content of the speech; This might be useful in whittling away a few precious seconds in automated telephone services, if universally adopted.

Other than that, I rediscovered "Weird Al" Yankovic, and realised that he might well be a speech recognition system gone bad. Very bad.


2

Attended two birthday dinners, one for zy at Aerin's (revisited my taste for bangers & mash from England) at the Raffles Marketplace, which boasted a lively fountain - I hadn't realised that if water is squirted to the right height, the droplets that travel the highest actually fall faster and smash back into the droplets that didn't go quite as high. The other was for my paternal grandfather, the usual Chinese affair at Chin Lee. Neither did much for my grand nutritional plan (nor did having the nose bridge of my goggles break in the middle of the eleventh lap, but that's another story).


A cat at a Bedok bus-stop has a good idea of its ideal diet


What happened before each of these dinners is also well worth a mention. At City Hall MRT, I was approached by a man who introduced himself as an ex-convict, and who bore some documents as proof. He then asked if I might buy some bric-brac from him for S$10, S$5 of which would go to the company that supplied the goods, and S$5 commission for himself. Even when I declined, he remained extremely polite, which made me rather more well-disposed towards his cause.

It would have been better, of course, had he managed to secure a full-time job, but in a tight employment market (hopefully picking up), it would be no surprise if opportunities were scarce. While there are initiatives such as the Yellow Ribbon project, one can still understand why companies might stuff their resumes at the bottom of the pile, especially for low-skilled positions with many applicants.

Indeed, there has already been some hoo-hah about some companies appearing to prefer foreign workers, to the extent of posting ads in neighbouring countries for vacancies in Singapore. This tension has been present for some time, and the government has finally responded with "a big shift", with measures such as slowly increasing the levy on foreign workers, cutting subsidies for Permanent Residents, and raising their school fees, in a valiant attempt to show that citizenship actually brings better benefits than permanent residency, which was doubted in some quarters.

Optimistically, this represents an effort to weed out the uncommitted. Realistically, it appears a token effort that will not have an appreciable impact on the status quo. Cynically, it means that election season must be near.

Another observation about donations is that economics majors are rather less likely to donate than students who studied other things, and more damningly, a single economics module has this effect (see research paper). Partially self-selected, perhaps?

Incident number two involved a survey taker at Boon Lay. Seeing that it was short enough, my internal dice clattered and I agreed to fill it in (it was supposedly on SMRT and transport), age, occupation and all. The funny part came later, when I happened to come across what might have been a supervisor asking the survey taker, "Are you sure he's a student?" I couldn't resist walking over and saying, yes, it's true.

After that, I had to get away from a credit card promoter who asked for a few minutes of my time, even when I told him I had one already. In the future, I figure it's not worth it to be nice and try and lead such conversations to a graceful end - one try, then walk away already. They should be used to it, and if not, they better be. Sales is mostly a numbers game anyway; Throw enough lines, and some will get a bite.

Cursory reading reveals that this is the case elsewhere (Thomas Edison's 1000 ways not to make a lightbulb, Colonel Sanders' 1009 rejections before selling his chicken recipe blah blah [ergo, inventing a lightbulb is simpler than cooking?]), but maybe the most amusing application is in dating and romance.

Firstly, it must be said that I believe it is almost never the case that a person can't find a significant other; The real issue is finding a good enough (or in more politically-correct terms, a compatible enough - possibly just a 0.00034% chance, as computed by an economics PhD candidate) one. Oh, there are individual preferences, of course, but for a large proportion of people, my guess is that their mate-suitability ranking functions are quite similar; As a very crude experiment purely on the visual aspect, I tried my hand at the Hot or Not website, and affirmed that my scores were quite close to the public's, even if I think they give nines and tens too freely.

It may be that a young, bubbly, pretty, well-proportioned and kind lady is overlooked for a more... dowdy one (Princess Diana and HRH Camilla Parker Bowles is a possible example, although the latter may not be without her own charms), but in general, the former will have far more options, should she wish to explore them (cue "not in your class" remarks of nosy friends, who infuriatingly do sometimes know better - 旁观者清, so they say)

The observation then is that getting the right partner is logically just a matter of meeting enough people, i.e. playing the numbers game. Indeed, Googling self-proclaimed gurus in this area reveals the line of thinking that, since there are always more fish in the ocean/trees in the forest/hamsters in the pet shop, one should be picky in accepting a prospect, and quick to cut him or her off once interest dips, even if slightly, or disrespect is shown.

Prime examples of this are The Rules by Ellen Fein (for gals - "don't call him and rarely return his calls", "always end the date first"), and The System by Thomas Hodges aka Doc Love (for guys - "be a Challenge!", "wait a week to call"). Clearly, there is a slight problem in that if all girls were strictly Rules girls and all guys were System guys, the human race would become extinct in short order*. Also, in both cases, the objective appears to be to find somebody who loves one more than one loves him/her back, at least at the beginning, thus placing oneself in the position of power in the relationship.

Understandable, but I don't buy it myself.

[* N.B. This obviously does not happen in real life. Budding economists and dating coaches might want to read up on the theory of evolutionarily stable strategies to gain an insight into the possible macro effects of human behaviour]


16


A different colour each month


Slightly more reading (sixteen books on loan receipts under the same borrower name, to be precise) brings a free carrier bag, courtesy of the National Library Board. Folds into a tinier baggy for even more compact storage.


31

Three-one is the order of the day for United fans, as the plucky Red Devils convincingly demolished two of their fiercest rivals by that margin. The much-maligned Nani was instrumental in both matches, even if he somehow didn't get on the scoresheet and do his patented somersault celebration; If he keeps this up, Madrid could well come knocking with a Ronaldo + £30M swap deal after the World Cup. A revitalized Rooney scored in both, freed from the shackles of supporting said Ronaldo, but it has to be said that Arsenal's defending on counterattacks was abysmal. Four guys tracked back around Rooney, and not one thought to actually stick to him.

The ugly shower of coins at Bellamy during the first match shouldn't be swept under the carpet, serving as a reminder that there is always an idiot minority at every club (in this instance, beach balls would have been more appropriate). Tellingly, there sometimes seems to be an idiot majority at most footballing administrative bodies - FIFA, UEFA and the FA have had their share of questionable rulings, but the Confederation of African Football takes the cake by banning Togo from the next two editions of the African Cup of Nations, for pulling out of the competition after two members of their contingent were murdered by terrorists.

One thing FIFA does especially competently is negotiating television rights for their events; With just months to go, neither FIFA nor SingTel/StarHub are budging, with FIFA demanding a figure variously reported to be from S$40M to S$100M, which some have suspected is due in part to SingTel's outlandish S$400M winning bid for the EPL rights. SingTel and FIFA may have a point there, as I just forked out half of the fee for viewing the 2010/11 season on mioTV, but it remains frustrating that FIFA pegs their prices to perceived ability to pay.

$1434/$1800 in virtual punting thanks to United, and I see no reason not to ride their form:

$50 on United (-2.5) vs. Portsmouth (at 2.05)
$50 on Liverpool to draw Everton (3.25)


102

And a Baidu link to my artist uncle, who is now on the web. Should really ask him to tutor me someday.






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