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Sunday, Mar 04, 2012 - 21:25 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Some Sims

Got persuaded to fork out piecemeal for a pair of bowling shoes (saving a buck on every trip hence), a wrist support (darn wrist still breaking at release) and a bag to keep it all in, raising expenditures to over two hundred bucks; at the rate it was going, I was afraid that I would end up purchasing shares in the bowling centre, but I suppose there's nothing left to buy - well, except maybe a spare ball...


Can do double duty as gauntlets in a pinch


Mr. Ham very nicely chipped in too:


Just take this puffball and stop squeezing me between throws. Please.


My scores aren't anything to crow about yet, with everything still horribly inconsistent, but the personal best on the new ball has at least gone up to 158:


Four open frames will do that


Curious about how strike and spare percentages would affect the score, I got Mr. Robo on the job, and he simulated a hundred thousand full games at each combination of percentages to generate the following table (note that the figures were mostly stabilized by ten thousand games):




[N.B. Assumptions taken: If a strike is not obtained on the first throw of the frame, the number of pins left is distributed exponentially, i.e. 50% chance for one pin left, 25% for two and so on; if a spare is not obtained, the number of pins left is distributed evenly among all possible combinations] I have further divided the scores into five main categories:

  • Below 160 (Grey): Not very good, leisure/amateur bowlers (the table is probably increasingly less accurate towards the top left, since the assumptions are less likely to hold)
  • 160 to below 180 (Blue): Fairly decent amateurs who generally don't leave many open frames (i.e. have pins remaining after two throws)
  • 180 to below 200 (Green): Serious amateurs
  • 200 to below 240 (Orange): Really serious amateurs and semi-pros, to top professionals at the higher end of the range
  • 240 and above (Red): This average score is not known to have been sustained over the long term, at least under challenging professional conditions (e.g. different types of lanes, lots of games at a go, etc)

which allows some conclusions to be drawn:

  • It is very hard to get very good scores without being able to strike semi-reliably (the maximum score without a strike is 190, achieved by nine-sparing each frame, with another nine on the final throw)
  • The corollary is being able to strike a lot drastically reduces dependance on being able to spare - being able to consistently strike 80% of the time would stand a bowler in good stead of winning just about any tournament, even if he can't spare at all!
  • For most bowlers, however, being able to spare makes a potentially huge difference. A respectable 50% strike ratio would produce scores of about 170 with poor sparing, which probably wouldn't be enough in most competitions. A 90% spare rate would lift the score by over 40 pinfalls, though, which makes a world of difference


Mr. Robo then took on the challenge of simulating the Fiery Warpath in Mousehunt, in particular attempting to answer the question of whether it is worth it to switch charms once a mouse of a different type is caught (thus starting a streak for that type)

Information about the mechanics were obtained from tehhowch's MH Toolbox, and also from Horntracker for my default setup (Enraged Rhinobot/Spellbook Base/Gouda). Catch rates for each mouse were calculated from my own records, which turned out slightly poorer than Horntracker would suggest (probably due to lazy mistakes in setup on my part)

It is further assumed that an unlimited amount of basic Warpath Warrior/Scout/Archer Charms are available, but no Cavalry/Mage ones (which cost about 6000 gold each currently, far too much for my taste); while putting Commander Charms on after long streaks would probably speed the process considerably, this too was ignored as they are also in limited supply in practice.

As it turns out, Mr. Robo found that it made practically no difference whether one sticks with a charm type to clear entire categories of a mouse at a go (so that they won't respawn with uncaught Caravan mice), or opportunistically swaps the charm to match a new streak. Neither, in fact, does the order in which they are cleared (warrior/archer/scout) matter much.

A thousand simulated runs for each combination gives an average completion time of 1063 trap checks for all four waves without charm swapping, and 1056 trap checks with, about nine days given non-stop horn sounding, which can probably be sped up considerably through wise use of Commander charms first of all, and expensive Cavalry/Mage charms next. Otherwise, however, it seems that there's no need to think too much about it.


Mr. Ham (2302/2300 seeds): 100 seeds on Fulham to beat Wolves (at 1.50), should be easy takings!

FAKEBERT (2118.5/2300 seeds): 100 seeds on Manchester United to beat Tottenham (at 2.27), they do have a great record at White Hart Lane.



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