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Sunday, Aug 04, 2013 - 21:30 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Being Contrarian


The Ubiquitous Solution

This gem from the front page of TODAY on Monday:

"US prof's solution to hospital bed crunch:
Peg prices to inflation"


I sure hope he was misquoted, because this sounds curiously like advocating price gouging for foodstuffs to fix a famine. Now, technically speaking, he is of course correct - if you raise the price enough, some patients will simply not be able to afford to stay, and get thrown out, leading to the demand curve for beds meeting the supply curve for beds. Ta-da!

But wait. Back to the first few weeks of Economics 101. Doesn't the demand curve already meet the supply curve in actuality? Considering the short term for simplicity, the supply of beds is fixed (a horizontal straight line), while the demand is strongly inelastic, which is the key point - I would gather that very few want to be in a hospital ward and take up a bed, just because it's cheap. Rather, they take up a bed because they need a bed.

So what happens if the price is fixed to inflation (i.e. raised)? Again with reference to Economics 101, the demand (curve) does not shift, because price is, well, not a non-price determinant - all that happens is that the patients have to fork out more. Then again, it could work in statistical terms if people give up even applying for a bed, as with the unemployment rate. Of course, given that this is the standard approach here - too many cars? COE, ERP, road tax! Too many people? Rent just goes up! - it's hardly a surprise that they're only too happy to hammer yet another sector with their preferred blunt implement.

It gets better every week, with the State's Times kindly informing its readers that six in ten of them have good jobs and don't really need a university degree (not having one is suddenly the in-thing, apparently). At the same time and blessedly free of irony, the Defence Minister began to sound the drums, warning against Distortions, Rumours, Untruths, Misinformation and Smears from the great uncharted online.

Encouraged, the AGC joined in on the bass by continuing with their best efforts to make an example of a cartoonist for having the gall to insinuate that some of their an organization that might be carelessly mistaken for them's actions were not completely free of bias, because why would you charge a starving man for swiping a sandwich, even as the rest of the developed world chortles their collective asses off.

Beginning with the latest survey, which at least covered 501 respondents this time, one eagle-eyed commenter quickly noted that while the headline states "Singaporeans", the accompanying pie chart in fact promises only "residents". Would that qualify as a distortion, untruth or plain old misinformation? This leaves aside the small detail that the headline could more honestly be "More residents expect worse job prospects in the future", from their own data.

Going on, what about CPF Life being quantitatively demonstrated to be problematic, and not even guaranteed? Which category does that come under? Or how the MDA is spouting off about innovative and value-added services, when the genius move of setting up two firms under the same parent company to bid against each other ended with Singapore somehow footing over 13% of the entire global TV rights bill for the Barclays Premier League?

See, the thing is that it cuts both ways - try clever presentation too much, and who can blame people for beginning to haul about large grains of salt? As things stand, I expect the truth to be solidly in the middle, but given how significant the first-mover advantage can be, I don't expect our national mouthpieces to let up anytime soon.


Gogogo Is Back

Me: Well, the latest site feedback is in, and it seems that at least one of our readers skips over all the hamster bits.

Mr. Ham: What? How can this be? We are the main draw of this blog, after all! How churlish! Oh, and I got a letter from the old fellow we met the other day. He's a little down, after being coerced into an apology by a big fish here.

Me: The nice elderly gentleman? That's a bit low.

Mr. Ham: Still, I would hire the fellow in a heartbeat. That wonderful skill! That ability to switch moods in an instant, that mastery of oratorical tone! He's a natural! We could go places! The world will be our oyster, or at least the bits that are slightly less adept at critical thinking!

Me: Um, don't get carried away. We had enough trouble the last time you tried it. How about I tell you about my Saturday instead?

Mr. Ham: Fine, carry on.


So, in order to commemorate our Dartmouth-going-NYU scholar returning, we gathered for basketball just like old times, where I rediscovered just how quickly I wilt under the sun. In my few active minutes, I managed to rack up one elbow to the face and one overstretched tricep, so I figured it best to sit about outside the court for a while, at which a stray football found the back of my head.

It's nice to get it all over with at a stroke.

But the more memorable part came later. We had retired to a cafe bar at Holland V for the night, and the house musicians were winding up their third set south of one a.m. with a high-energy number. Now, those who frequent this blog will know that I quite appreciate such pieces in general. It's simply that I don't usually demonstrate it by nodding along, which was what most of the other patrons were getting into, not helped by my bunkering down into my usual not-getting-a-chance-after-waiting-for-over-a-decade-to-heck-with-this-world mood.

In any case, I happened to be seated smack in front of the stage (which is not advisable for those who appreciate acoustics), the base of which by then had been thronged by rather enthusiastic headbangers. Now, of course, in such situations it is only natural to follow suit, if only to blend in; but there was one tiny problem, which was that I didn't actually feel like nodding in time, and moreover knew exactly why I did what I could have done, had I done it.

So, I figured, your sound's great, but f**k following suit for the sake of following suit, and sat stock-still, as is my habit. I didn't mean for it to be conspicuous - I thought the lighting dim enough - but I suppose it had to be, on hindsight.

It ended with the lead singer apparently taking my photo and asking for a handshake, which was kind of awkward, but then I suppose that doesn't happen everyday, so it's cool.

Problem is, it meant that I still can't shake the sense of sheer unwillingness over the matter. But, hey, life is long. Someday.






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