Powered by glolg
Display Preferences Most Recent Entries Chatterbox Blog Links Site Statistics Category Tags About Me, Myself and Gilbert XML RSS Feed
Saturday, July 12, 2014 - 22:59 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

It's A Mug's Game


New Paper redemptions - Netherlands 10, Spain 8
[N.B. I'm probably not trying hard enough to win, though]


Anyone who's living anywhere remotely near civilization has probably heard of our pre-tournament pick Germany's 7-1 mauling of a barely-conscious Brazil in the semifinals, certainly waking the world up to the realisation that they were indeed rather good all along. Now, a German win was not completely out of left field, given how obvious it was to anyone who bothered to review the matches that this Brazil side were seriously deficient, having traded their mythical samba for a sorry slugger's mentality.

Note that Brazilian football was never exactly dainty - it was just that, when previous iterations of the Seleção got a bit dirty, they were easy to forgive since they mixed it up with sheer magic, and because they were more often than not also on the receiving end; sadly, one gets the impression that this 2014 version does it simply because they don't have any other ideas, which was why we favoured Colombia and the Netherlands (had they met) to get the better of them.

Of course, they were not helped by the much-mourned Neymar getting injured in the quarter-finals, though from how they completely forgot to defend (which, to be fair, is at least in keeping with the Brazilian style), it was Thiago Silva who was missed more. Honestly, though, the scoreline was more indicative of mental capitulation than anything - far worse teams have held far better teams for far longer, and a closer look confirms that for most of the goals, sheer basic incompetence played a huge role; the men in yellow mostly picked the worst places to stroll to, leaving the Germans free potshots without executing much more than basic passes.


After about 4-0, they could have just called it off


Had this been played somewhere else, in a game of lesser consequence, one would have to at least conjecture that something queer was going on, but given the circumstances, one can only conclude that not even He - or Tim Howard - could do anything to aid the hapless Brazilian team (but then again, given that the current Pope and his predecessor happen to hail from the finalists, may just be a desire not to undermine his underlings), and one can easily believe that the Germans actually held back for the second half.

The home fans were quick to turn on their team, and the innocuously-named Fred (who got some undeserved extra stick, but then again...) in particular, but the bare fact of the matter is that they were simply not good enough; indeed, a fourth-place finish would probably be slightly flattering (recall, the rather superior 2006 and 2010 vintages went out in the quarters). Let's face it, for a nation weaned on legends like Garrincha, Pelé, Zico, Romário, Rivaldo, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Roberto Carlos and far too many others to name, having to depend on the likes of Fred, Hulk and Jo is many steps down. But then again, one can't quite blame this lamentable bunch for being merely decent strikers, right?


If they had him, they might have had a fighting chance
[N.B. Note ultra-effective no-nonsense hip shifting]
[N.N.B. Ok, everybody looks good in compilations, but it's telling that Ronaldo actually scores after, or more usually without, the tricks]


Still, this was of little consolation to the fans, and it was difficult to watch kids and the elderly united in grief - but then again, the old guy had seen his share of glory (same as Scolari, who remains a former World Cup winner, unlike his critics who are coming out of the woodwork) and recovered quickly enough, and as for the young lad, well, he probabaly won't suffer through a massacre like that again in his lifetime. Also, Neymar (mostly) escaped being tarred with this brush, and if they build around him with fresh talent and rediscover the joga bonito of old, they should come good.

One of his Singaporean counterparts stands in good stead of being rather happier, in contrast, with the latest fail from the government being a campaign featuring him having his savings appropriated by his father, for a punt on... Germany. Now, even if the producers knew nuts about football, they could have at least noted that Germany were originally quoted at 5-1 or thereabouts, so this eventuality was far from unlikely; as many independent commentators have remarked, why couldn't they have picked a side that has a certain history and popularity, so as not to make the bet unrealistic, yet are plainly not going to win it - like, say, England (sorry)?

Moreover, as The Tonight Show quipped - how much savings can an eight year-old have? S$17.25?

This does go to show that unless you're a furry hamster, football prediction is a tricky business. To comfort the National Council on Problem Gambling, we can note that such kings of number-crunching as Nate Silver (who had Brazil with a 45.2% chance to win it all at the beginning, which was kind of understandable, but then had them at 65% to beat the Germans after a string of utter dross, which was not) and Goldman Sachs (who got into the spirit with a 67-page report that also had the hosts prevailing, though they did get the Brazil-Germany semifinals and Argentina as finalists right) have not exactly succeeded either with their ultimate picks.

That said, Silver and Sachs have been flexible enough to adjust their expectations after the Mineirazo and the hard-to-watch nil-all grind between the Argentines and the Dutch (which, Mr. Ham would argue, came a game early), with Silver now giving Germany a 63% chance in the finals, with the bankers agreeing. Also, if one had bet using Silver's model over all games, one would have done quite well, showing that statistics does work overall - however, simple wisdom of crowds appears to have that beat, with (self-selected) Guardian readers and wholesale mining by Microsoft and Baidu perfect in the knockout stages thus far.

Sure, these calls are not a shade on the famous S$15000 betting slip for Any Other Score floating about local forums, which in turn pales to the incredible wager on the exact 7-1 scoreline and Khedira to score... if it's genuine, of course.

*scratching noises*


But You Haven't Seen The Real Mugs


Oops, you were here?


Me: Mr. Fish, what are you doing with my ticket?

Mr. Fish: Is this yours? Mr. Ham told me to bring it to him.

Mr. Ham: Well, I thought it was mine. There was no indication that it was yours, other than being pinned to your corkboard, and with your name written on its back, but like, what does that prove nowadays?

Me: *pockets ticket* Well, now you know. It was just a tiny flutter to back up past analysis materially, and in any case, we shouldn't count our chickens too soon, even if your hamster friends are with us on this. For all that's been said by Robben and others, Argentina are still a top side who have literally busted an ass to get here, and one suspects there may be a hint of bitterness against recent conquerors going on (Mexico, for one, haven't forgotten). All things considered though, if any team has a system for Messi and company, it's Germany.

Mr. Ham: So, if nothing too unexpected happens, such as United actually buying a midfielder, Fellaini suddenly losing five inches in height, or Singapore playing in the final stages of the World Cup, we're in for a treat, right, human?

Me: I wouldn't be overly confident - remember last year's proposed joint ASEAN bid for the 2030 edition? Of course, they can't let all ten members in as co-hosts, but if they reserve one spot, then it's not inconceivable that we could win some regional tournament to get in. Of course, there would perhaps be double-digit scorelines and other "special" records set in the group stages, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity! I'm even warming to Qatar, that is if they do get their futuristic stadia up. But realistically, I'd settle for free broadcasts.

Mr. Ham: Say, since we're all here, we might as well go over some of the outstanding predictions. On Bitcoin prices, they have indeed shot up to as high as US$665 a couple of days after the auction close, before settling about US$630, safely above Mr. Robo's guarantee of US$620. He therefore gets to keep his salary. Well done, Mr. Robo, though you could have set a higher mark, you know.

Mr. Robo: *mutters* Easy for you to say, it's not your wages that are at stake.

Me: That price movement was kind of obvious, given that both the pent-up anticipatory demand and the likely over-market winning bid - even if not disclosed, which was the case from Tim Draper of Six Californias fame - were consistent in predicating a run-up, which the pros over at Citi seem to have neglected; in short, the stars aligned. It seems that H.L. Ham made a small packet off the swing trade, so congratulations. Mr. Robo, why are you looking shamefaced?

Mr. Ham: *puffing on cigar* Oh, he didn't take profit above US$660, like I did. Granted, it's still a US$50 gain from pre-auction levels, but not quite the best deal.

Mr. Robo: *blurts out* I don't get it! How does he do it? I painstakingly trained numerous backtested models, while as far as I can tell, Mr. Ham has done nothing but play solitaire!

Me: Mr. Robo, it's not all down to logic. Experience and the "it-factor" can't be discounted. But why don't you just ask Mr. Ham about how he made his decision? You could then incorporate it into your future models.

Mr. Ham: Erm, you really want to know?

Mr. Robo: Yes!

Mr. Ham: Well, my butt hurt, so I sold. Hey, what were you expecting? Math? Whoa, easy on the prospectus!


To preserve Mr. Robo's spotless reputation,
we give an artistic impression of what he looked like
(Source: imgur.com)


Me: Heh heh. Don't take it too hard, Mr. Robo - I'm sure Mr. Ham has plenty of faceplants that he's not telling you about. Just to round it off, some are finally coming around to Bitcoin as store of value, Litecoin and other alts are falling away as explained a couple of months back, and Newegg among others have hopped on - and are shipping here anytime now. Just breathe easy, I'll have my Raspberry Pi bot email you if the price swings 2.5% in either direction, which happens less often than you might expect. No need to watch it incessantly.

There has been some scaremongering about how Bitcoin could be used to fund terrorist groups like ISIS, but one has to remember that cryptocurrency is actually more transparent than cash, which they've captured a load of anyway, some of which they apparently spent on expensive watches, which is looking like a must for big shots no matter the country.


And They Are Before Us

Mr. Ham: Ok, moving on from gambling and speculation to proper investment, Our Most Successful Investment Firm has reported yet another stellar year, with their portfolio value increasing by 3.7%! Of course, if you continue reading, which good citizens are not supposed to, you'll realise that this increase was largely down to the government handing them another S$5 billion, and that they basically earned a big fat zero - i.e. lost money in real terms, which would have been fair enough in a recession, but disappointing given that U.S. stock markets have been absolutely booming this past year.

Here, it might be a bit rude to point out that I humbly submitted that Chinese banks might not be the best possible pick some two years ago, all the more as Goldman Sachs and their ilk were anxious to palm them off, and lo and behold, they have found that the shadow banking monster is bigger than thought, ho ho ho.

Me: Well, they could be slowly divesting...

Mr. Ham: *sighs* Human, their new tagline after making 0% is "our journey has just begun", and they're doubling down because long term, or in other words, don't expect results anytime soon. I wouldn't be too optimistic if I were you, without even getting into how I expect the yuan to devalue to fix their own domestic issues. It may just be me, but I think the fate of a little red dot thousands of miles away won't be the main concern of the Communist Party of China, so what if we've been dutifully plonking our funds with them?

Mr. Robo: But I've been reading that an NUS study has them outperforming the market...

Mr. Ham: *shrugs* That's a given as long as you lot have state assets to transfer over to them at discount prices, so they can thereafter "realise" a nice profit. Of course, much of the nice goodies have already been pawned off, so they'll probably have to start learning how to, you know, invest.

Which brings us to another realisation a few days ago - the GIC suddenly found out that they manage CPF money! Well, dang, who wouldja thunk it? It turns out that the GIC's cash didn't magically drop out of thin air! Ahahaha! No problem, folks, now we've finally figured out what actually happens to that S$250 billion, and quietly edited our website. Uh, so now we've established that it's safe and that the CPF works well, we're all good to go, right? Splendid. Debate over.

The high point of that particular discussion came when your Opposition leader questioned as to why the CPF money could not be transparently managed as a separate fund, without getting mixed into the general pool and coming under the curtain of national security interests. In response, the relevant DPM asserted that a separate CPF investment fund would not be able to enjoy the same returns as the GIC (huh?!)

As far as I can tell, the DPM (and Finance Minister!) is mostly talking out of his other end here, as his colleagues have been making a habit of. Then again, given that the alternative would be an admission that the CPF started out at least partly as a source of cheap funding that the government got used to, and simply never bothered to improve upon over the decades because eh, no riots, one can understand the position he is in.

His boss has meanwhile been engaged in demanding satisfaction from an offending blogger - whom, as we have seen, has in fact raised some good points. A summary judgment, if it comes to pass, would probably not be a bad end to the mess, though, reducing as it does the costs involved; let the blogger raise the few hundred thousands required, the plaintiff gets his dignity restored and eats the bad press with a fat wallet, and life goes on.

As to gauging the true level of support, well, the results of local surveys seem to depend a lot on who's doing them. Say, look at the time, we're going to have to stop if we're going to be watching the matches, so the China situation will have to wait till next time.



comments (0) - email - share - print - direct link
trackbacks (0) - trackback url


Next: This Wide World


Related Posts:
Riding The Current
Think Thunk
The Week After
Groundwork
What It Is (Part Two)
Back to top

Copyright © 2006-2025 GLYS. All Rights Reserved.