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Saturday, June 28, 2014 - 13:55 SGT
Posted By: Ham H. Let

Call It All

"These things happen."

- Luis Suarez,
underrated footballing philosopher,
wounded, driven, hungry soul


With the human otherwise indisposed after falling out of his chair upon hearing that Our Most Successful Investment Firm has been experimenting with Bitcoin, I, Mr. Ham H. Let, shall be taking over his blogging duties for the week. Now, for all our sakes, I sure hope this cryptocurrency thingy works out.

I'll make this quick, since there's some close monitoring of the relevant market to be done, with bidding on the Silk Road coins having just concluded. With the hashrate concentration issue having resolved itself amicably - sort of - and with a possible technical fix involving Lamport/Fawke signatures proposed, and with long-term sustainability concerns still some way away, the auction will be the key driver of prices in the near term, or so my dear employee Mr. Robo says.

On the effects, there are two main schools of thought - the first is that the coins will be sold at a discount to the current exchange price of some US$560-600, the usual outcome for bulk purchases; the second is that they will change hands at a markup, due to the difficulty of acquiring this quantity of coins on the open market, and also the fact that their sale by the U.S. Marshals Service confers a legitimacy on the coins, that could otherwise be... difficult to come by.


For large block purchases, it's either them or him
(Source: tumblr.com)


The million-dollar question then is: which of these factors will prove the stronger influence?

More pessimistic observers have suggested that the first case will prevail, with at least some of the cheap coins then dumped onto the exchanges for a quick profit. Our research division, i.e. Mr. Robo, deems this unlikely, however. His reasoning is as follows - while bids lower than market rate are attractive to buyers, the large number of interested parties, as accidentally disclosed, leads us to suspect that the winner's curse will come into effect strongly. We therefore envisage an average price for the ten lots to be between US$600-700.

Unfortunately, there is no indication that winning bids will be revealed, so Mr. Robo has kindly offered to stick his neck out with an additional prediction that the market will recover to at least US$620 by the Sunday after, the sixth of July, with his salary for the week to be docked if it does not come to pass.

What is known, in contrast, is that MediShield Life premiums will largely be doubling or tripling, as insightful commentators have warned. From the forum rumblings that the additional benefits will be swallowed by rising medical fees anyway, it does appear that the population is wising up to mainstream media slants, which seem to be getting clumsier by the day.

This has extended to a realisation that the local gambling monopoly is offering extremely poor odds as compared to international operators, an in-depth explanation of which can be obtained from a previous post, with the skimping on long odds standing out. Now, even if you get it right, as us hamsters tend to do, the reduced winnings can get annoying, all the more as underdogs have been shining thus far.

Going back to the human's December bracket, it transpires that he only got ten of the sixteen advancing teams right - Croatia, Spain, Japan, Italy, Portugal and Russia didn't live up to expectations, while Mexico, Chile, Greece, Costa Rica, the USA and Algeria go on at their expense. Offhand, home continent advantage really does seem to matter - of the ten North/South American sides, eight are still in contention, with only Ecuador and Honduras falling out. The less said about Asia's three draws and nine losses, the better.

Since the human has proven less than prescient, I'll take over from here.

R16-1: Brazil 1 Chile 0

Brazil have not exactly hit stride yet, for all the fanfare over their 4-1 mauling of the not-very-good Cameroon, while Chile have in my opinion looked sharp in their wins over Australia and defending champions Spain, before losing the dead rubber against the Netherlands. While Brazil can struggle against less-heralded fellow South American teams, they do have a stellar record against Chile, and we see them getting through bar some serious distractions cropping up.



Sorry, Tiki-Taka, we do not agree


R16-2: Colombia 2 Uruguay 0

The only fixture that was correctly called. Without Suarez, who has been banned completely for four months, it's hard to see where they can find that added bite. Colombia have breezed through their admittedly rather easy group handily, and they should be good enough against a now-toothless Uruguay.

R16-3: France 3 Nigeria 1

1998 winners France have turned it on with high-scoring wins against Switzerland and Honduras, while Nigeria have frankly looked like a typical African contestant, at risk of sounding banal - physical, hardworking, but a bit limited.

R16-4: Germany 2 Algeria 0

Hard to look past Germany for this one, especially if they rediscover the flow that saw them put four past Portugal, and dominate the Americans. Algeria did well to beat South Korea and hold Russia, but that'll probably not be enough.

R16-5: Netherlands 2 Mexico 1

The Dutch have probably been the form team of the tournament thus far, and have seldom looked troubled. Mexico have for their part held Brazil, and have a standout goalie in Ochoa; he can't be expected to do it all, though.

R16-6: Costa Rica 2 Greece 0

Who would have thought? Originally the afterthought in a group with Italy, Uruguay and England, Costa Rica beat two of them to finish top. Greece have experience with huge upsets, but there's no indication they have a repeat in them.

R16-7: Argentina 0 Switzerland 1

One could ask where Argentina would be without joint top-scorer Messi, and the answer might well be: nowhere. With Aguero out through injury, if the Swiss come up with a plan for M, they could very well scrape through.

R16-8: Belgium 1 USA 1 (USA on pens)

This one will be close. The Americans have been disparaged for not taking football seriously - soccer, indeed! - but they were respectable against the likes of Germany and Portugal. Much the same as the Belgians, then.


QF-1: Brazil 1 Colombia 2 (AET)

Another CONMEBOL opponent for Brazil. It is notable that the latest four internationals between the two have ended in draws, three of them goalless, and one just gets the feeling that this Brazil side is lacking something.

QF-2: France 2 Germany 3

Two former champions meet in an explosive encounter. Both have plenty of goals in them, but this German vintage are probably the more well-rounded. For that alone, we give this to the team in white and black.

QF-3: Netherlands 3 Costa Rica 0

The Dutch have a bit of a record for choking, but for the Costa Ricans, this will be completely uncharted territory, and the lack of experience on the big stage throughout their squad might finally get to them. Still, well done.

QF-4: Switzerland 1 USA 0 (AET)

Switzerland or the United States in the semifinals?! Few would have imagined that at the beginning, but here we are. There's certainly no script to follow, and we expect some awkwardness as both sides look to defend for a while.


SF-1: Colombia 0 Germany 2

The Germans would have the home fans on their side for this one, and one expects the ineffable quality of past experience to come in here. They just know this place, and the Colombians don't - at least, not yet.

SF-2: Netherlands 4 Switzerland 1

Same goes for the Swiss, who will secretly be amazed that they have made it thus far. Of course, they were probably never that good, and this is where their luck runs out, and likely in rather embarassing fashion.


...Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, well, mostly gentlemen. In the white corner, we have the Teutonic Terrors, the Rumblers of the Rhine, the unstoppable footballing machine, Germany! No stranger to the ending stages of international competitions, they have however stumbled at their last two Finals, WC2002 and Euro 2008. Will this finally be the turn of the longtime bridesmaids?

Facing them, in the orange corner, we have the Daring Dutchmen, the Hip Hollanders, the One True Stylists, the Netherlands! Perennial underachievers, they suffered bitter defeat from a late Iniesta goal this time last edition, but have completely exorcised those ghosts by thrashing Spain recently. Second time lucky, surely?

*ball goes up, ball goes down*

Not a classic first half, the second one should be better.

*ball goes down, ball goes up*

...this is what we call a tactical struggle, folks. Two thinking teams. Sure, it's come down to pumping long balls to Klose on one hand, and giving it to Robben and hoping that he can dribble past four defenders on his own on the other, but you must understand, there is no bigger prize, you can't expect them to start risking it now, can you?

*ball goes...*

My, extra time went by in a flash, didn't it? Bloody heck, do those guys in white ever miss spot kicks?

Germany wins on penalties.



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