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Sunday, Jan 24, 2016 - 20:40 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Music And Eats

Mr. Robo: Hey, Mr. Ham, the human's cakeday is arriving. Shouldn't we get something for him?

Mr. Ham: Leave it to me. I mean, what's the worst he can do, throw the book at me?


It was *so* worth it...
(Original source: redditgifts.com)



Some time later...

Me: Meh, it was kind of funny the first time around. Didn't think I'd put my new Amazon buys to good use quite so soon, though. Oh, hi, Mr. Robo.

Mr. Robo: Happy one more year, human! Uh, so, as usual, how was your week?

Me: More outgoing than the norm. Let's see... there was hanging out in Bugis at a bak kut teh place, and then Witbier Cafe, with the old high school guys on Friday. And then, there was Nightwish on their Endless Forms Most Beautiful World Tour - first time ever in Singapore - at Sentosa on Monday.


Fair Use Preview Only


It was probably also the first time I shelled out for a music-only event. Couldn't quite miss out after so many listens over the years, could I? To be honest, I recognized only Ever Dream, She Is My Sin, Weak Fantasy, Storytime, Nemo, Ghost Love Score and The Greatest Show on Earth from the set, and I could've sworn that they played Amaranth too, but maybe my listening recognition's just not all that great.

The only slight lingering - I wouldn't say regret, but... - was that the vocalist was not Tarja, and despite it being a decade already, the pull of that particular brand of opera metal remains strong. This almost seems ungrateful to Floor, who is an impressive singer - and definitely a better hair-twirler - in her own right, but still, what I'd give for more of the early Tarja-Nightwish sound.

Anyway, I was trying to figure out if the MRT would still be running by show's end, when they packed it in at 10 p.m. sharp, despite calls of "we want more" from the crowd. Problem solved. Plenty of black rock-band T-shirts in attendance, just to note, with at least one for Sonata Arctica, who as it turns out will be opening for Nightwish for the remainder of their tour... which by the way is the main revenue-earner for the shrinking music industry these days. Turns out that the late David Bowie had good foresight.

And then, on Friday, there was a nice seafood dinner treat at The Grandstand's (former Turf City) Dancing Crab:


Two left feet, but it's ok


One of my dining companions was quite perked about Belinda Lee apparently being at the corner table, and I had the impression that it wouldn't be polite to actively admit that I had no idea who that was, at least without Googling.

Saturday would be the birthday celebrations proper - D.I.Y BBQ this year - before cake. Happened to catch an episode of Empress Ki too, which I would otherwise never would have had opportunity to.

Mr. Robo: Sounds wonderful!

Me: I suppose so. Hopefully, the 2 TB portable drive will last longer than the rest. It's really unfortunate for local vendors that they're pricing it at S$37 more than Amazon; but then again maybe not, if they're getting sales from elsewhere.

*flipping through papers* Hmm, right after our comment last Sunday, Duric has come out with a largely congruent analysis of the S.League, but it's not as if it's hard to see... other than for those in charge. We can only hope that FIFA did some good in disallowing political appointments.

And speaking of that, The State's Times has suddenly exploded with articles on "refreshing the political system", which has morphed into a call to abolish presidential elections and restore a nominated presidency. Commentators were swift to point out that the esteemed dean's argument on the danger of a "rogue president" didn't even make sense, with prevailing opinion being that the incumbents' main concern is simply that their man might not win in a fair fight - which, recall, was Master Political Analyst Herr Ahm's take in 2011.

Mr. Robo: What more with Donald Trump sweeping all before him in the Hamerican version?

Me: Yeah, saw that Palin endorsement from a mile away. Well, it should be fascinating to watch what stunts might be pulled next year if the presidential elections go ahead, assuming potential contestants aren't dumb enough to go for another fatal four-way. That said, the anti-establishment tide seems to have mellowed somewhat in the past few years, but if Tan Cheng Bock does have another go, I'd say it'll be close.

Francis Seow's passing has brought additional poignancy to the matter, with former associate Chee Soon Juan coincidentally having just slammed the administration on authoritarianism and dearth of innovation in HuffPo. Interestingly, it was revealed that "innovation" has been a buzzword since at least 1991 with the National Technology Plan, through SME21, the ERC, the ESC and now the Committee on the Future Economy (CFE).

None of this is all that new, of course, and neither were the complaints that Chee should not damage Singapore's reputation in overseas publications, which I would be far more sympathetic to if we had a free press. As it is, there's probably not enough pointing of crap out. With that said, I do hope that inter-religious harmony can be preserved in light of recent happenings elsewhere; some... interesting phrasing on the official statement, however.

So, how 'bout you, Mr. Robo?

Mr. Robo: Ah, was working on last week's FiveThirtyEight riddle: imagine that there is a neurotic basketball player, whose probability to make any free throw after his second one, is exactly the overall percentage of shots that he has already made. His coach watches him hit the first and miss the second before leaving the gym, and returns to watch him make shot number 99. What should the coach expect the probability of the player to make his hundredth shot to be?

If you just want the answer and/or explanation, you can just look it up, but one observation we can quickly make is that the distribution for shots and misses has to be symmetrical.

A gripe about the "official" solution, though - it is suggested that "...it doesn't matter how many shots the coach was absent for, the right answer would remain the same", which doesn't seem true, if I understand it right. Consider if the coach never leaves, and witnesses the entire sequence of 99 shots; then, his estimate could range anywhere from 98/99 = 0.9898..., if the player made all shots but his second throw, and 2/99 = 0.02020..., if he made only his first and 99th throws.

Note that in both these - and all other possible - cases, that satisfy the observation that the 1st and 99th throws hit and the 2nd missed, the probability from witnessing all throws is by definition more accurate than that from witnessing only three!

Me: That makes sense. One interesting question then might be: given a limited budget of observations, what is the optimal strategy to utilize these available observations, to obtain the best possible probability estimate?

Mr. Robo: *scribbles* I'll keep that in mind. And, um, have you seen Mr. Ham? He's been missing since popping over to deliver cake this morning, or at least that's what he claimed.

Me: Oh, I merely insisted that he use his hamster gym membership. Even hired him a personal trainer. We won't be seeing him for a while, so why not just enjoy the music?


Élan




And in a fitness centre far, far away...

P.T. Instructor: We start with relaxing warm-up. Fifty laps.


You wait. You just wait.
[On reddit]




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