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Thanks to my upgraded living arrangements and general circumstances, I've been able to watch more games of this World Cup than any previous one (which also necessitated some catching up on sleep). As surprises went, from our pre-tournament expectations:
The other five groups went exactly as called, which however is probably not much of an accomplishment, given that they largely followed conventional wisdom on team strength. Of course, experienced punters should know not to trust FIFA's official rankings too much, hosts being discounted (Russia 70th) for not having to play competitive qualifiers aside - case in point, our pick Spain now co-favourites with Brazil at about 4/1, despite being ranked 10th behind Belgium (3rd, 7/1), group rivals Portugal (4th, 25/1) Argentina (5th, 14/1), Switzerland (6th, 40/1) and France (7th, 8/1), among others. As in other departments of real life, there is often a large disjunction between what people say and how they act, when their own money/skin is on the line... Some quick observations, before the group summaries: Paying The Penalty It didn't take long to sense that the bar for penalties had perhaps been lowered, once Ronaldo's going to ground in the fourth minute against Spain was rewarded with one. Indeed, the 24 penalties awarded is about twice as much as that from the past five World Cups. However, the total number of goals (122) is about bang average, which somewhat discounts the narrative about (kinda inconsistently-applied) VAR forcing defenders to loosen up. That said, VAR and goalline tech has eliminated the most egregious injustices. Gap Narrowing? While Saudi Arabia's opening match whipping by Russia led me to suppose (prematurely, as it turned out) that standards in Asia remained dreadful, my impression is now that a draw - even against the biggest sides - is not entirely out of reach of almost all participants, especially if they have the discipline to play for one. Consider the eight games (16.7%) that ended with a winning margin of three goals or more:
High-ranking victims like Argentina, Mexico and Poland aside, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia managed to finish with wins, and every team managed to score at least twice besides. But perhaps more than that was the sense of unpredictability and inconsistency - taking Group A alone, the Sauds went from terrible against Russia to serviceable in a 0-1 loss to Uruguay, who went on to teach Russia a 3-0 lesson. Brazil needed two in extra time to beat mighty Costa Rica, and appear to be favourites on the back of a good but hardly convincingly-dominant win over Serbia. Argentina, so dire in their first two - and much of their third - matches, will probably be among the top four if they beat France tonight. The takeaway here is that there don't seem to be any gimmes in the last sixteen. Yes, there's talk of the top half of the bracket being much harder than the bottom UEFA+Colombia half, but frankly, if you pit the average performance of {Portugal/Argentina/Brazil/Mexico} against {Denmark/Sweden/Switzerland/Colombia}, that second set are unlikely to be inferior. We'll see. Note punters' implied odds never quite exceeding 20% for any single team, which Goldman Sachs appears to have finally modelled responsibly (recall their start-of-tournament winning probability of nearly 50% for Brazil in 2014, which inevitably leads one to question their expertise in economic modelling too) Group A - The Gimmes - Russia owning yet not owning it For all the Mo Salah hype, Russia lined up a knockout stage appearance as well as they could have here. As noted, Saudi Arabia and Egypt weren't total walkovers, but one had to fancy the (possibly roided-up) hosts against them. For his part, the Egyptian star was considering quitting the international stage after a political kerfuffle on Chechnya, which fortunately seems to have come to nothing. Uruguay advance with the distinction of nine points and being the only team to maintain a clean sheet throughout, a testament to their Godín-led defence, and Suárez has decent bite (sorry) in attack as well. To be entirely honest, on available evidence, I can see them disposing of Group B - An Iberian Affair - A Morocco supporter (he's not wrong) Spain through, Portugal through, no surprises there. Iran and Morocco however gave them a real run for their money, both of them earning a draw and a narrow one-goal loss against the two giants - and they could very well have won. The 3-3 instant classic aside, who can forget Mehdi Taremi nearly eliminating Portugal in the 94th minute, which could well have led to Ronaldo murdering his own squad (that too after he one-upped Messi, by having his penalty saved by a formerly-homeless chap)? Or Spain having to rely on Aspas in extra time, though that wasn't as critical? While Spain have been the best team on the attack thus far for my money, having refined their tiki-taka to fit their available personnel, their weakness is also glaringly obvious - in forcing their opponents back so consistently, they necessarily leave acres of space behind them with their high press, which in turn is vulnerable to a single speedy attacker with Pique not exactly known for pace (and, dare I say, Ramos also dropping off) - see the cock-up for the Boutaib goal. This wouldn't have been so bad had De Gea been as superhuman as he had been with United, but he's probably not even above average among all goalkeepers thus far in this competition (see his fluffing the very-stoppable Ronaldo shot) These vulnerabilies are at least obvious to the extent that Hierro cannot help but address them, with De Gea a natural candidate to be "rested". On the flip side, the De Gea-Pique-Ramos defensive unit remains on paper one of the best in the world, and it might yet be if they take the wake-up calls to heart. On offense, Isco has been magnificent, Diego Costa brutally effective, and Iniesta probably has the legs to be world-class for about an hour. Their supreme dedication to technical excellence has however led to all too many instances of trying to finesse the ball out of defence - I can see Russia hassling them hard for the first ten minutes, before falling back to play on the break. As for Ronaldo vs. Uruguay, the latter are gritty enough at the back to shut him down, with all signs pointing to a sorry mud-wrestling night out with plenty of falling over.
Group C - No Drama - summed up in four words France top the group with Denmark in second, true to form. Probably the most non-memorable group, exemplified by the pointless nil-all draw (the only one in the group stages) between France and Denmark on the last day. Group D - Nearly Got Messi - Fox commentator kills it Iceland's participation (over heavyweights like Italy and the Netherlands, no less) has long sparked questioning about why Singapore can't do it, since population (Iceland: just over 300 thousand) is clearly not a hard disqualifier. Short story: no monetary support, and passion that's slowly bleeding out with the fragmentation of resources (but hey, we held Japan in 2015, and Japan just beat the world champions... you do the math); it wasn't a fluke either, from how they nearly drew Croatia - who're already being played up as one of the outside faves with an on-form Modrić doing his thing. Argentina were less than ten minutes from being knocked out by Nigeria, when Rojo of all people bailed them out, to the apparent disbelief of his own mother (uproariously followed up by: Gonzalo Higuain's mother - "When we realised the ball had gone in, we did not think it was Gonzalo... and it wasn't."); if that amounted to their response to their total shitshow against Croatia, it could be a short knockout phase for the Argies. Still, they have Messi, who's the one man you'd expect to come up with a goal from nothing... but still less entertaining than "they found some blood in his cocaine system" Maradona, who can't help but bring the lulz decades after retiring.
Group E - All About Brazeeel - France & Denmark: hold our beers On paper, the Seleção have completely shaken off their humiliation from four years ago, having run away with the very-competitive CONMEBOL qualification league by ten points. However, they lack the mystique of past great Brazil sides to me - Neymar's got the obligatory questionable hairstyle down pat, but other than that, he's not a shade on the original Ronaldo, what with his rolling antics. Sure, he does get his fair share of getting chopped down, and exaggeration might even be the smart thing to do, but let's just say that he hasn't looked like carrying his team as Ronaldo or Messi have. Then again, Brazil are probably overall better than Portugal and Argentina... but not by that much - they drew the Swiss, and Costa Rica could very well have gotten a 0-0. As for the Swiss, they got rewarded with a wheel of cheese from their fans, and no, they couldn't beat Costa Rica either (and struggled with Serbia). Group F - Sweden? Top?! - South Korea Starcraft-level pro tactics Germany are out, and while there have teams that deserved to go through, but didn't, Die Mannschaft clearly didn't. A sad shadow of the machine from 2014, the writing was on the wall from their approach at the get-go. There was a sense that they never got out of second gear (Spain take note), and that just isn't enough nowadays (bar for WWII jokes). South Korea did Asian footy a world of good with their closing win (and other sacrifices), but sadly crashed out nonetheless. Neither Sweden nor Mexico have quite convinced either. The latter wowed by beating Germany, only to be badly exposed by the Swedes at the end. As for the Swedes, they've got to be bracketed together with the other European mid-tiers such as Switzerland and Denmark: solid enough, but without the look of ultimate winners. But eh, Greece once did it...
Group G - Belgium: We can kick ourselves in the face, and what are you gonna do about it? (in the background: IT'S COMING HOME LAAAADDDSSS!!!) - time for English high-level planning You know the script. England get drawn in perhaps the easiest group to qualify from, even including Group A, and after Kane edges Tunisia in the 91st minute, they spank Panama 6-1. At that, the distrustful fans - who've endured half a century of false hopes, mind - lose all restraint, sure as Charlie Brown races towards a football held by Lucy. Yes, they go on to lose to Belgium, but that was a strategic victory - and frankly, England didn't look too bad, lots of direct running and balls over the top, they might even have drawn had Rashford got his one-on-one on target, but I suppose he paid attention in the pre-match briefing. Truth be told, it's difficult to get an accurate handle on these two's true abilities, what with them playing against honestly not-very-good sides (see: Panama trying to score after an England celebration), and then a worse-than-pointless dead rubber. But lads, England are through... Group H - Poland Cannot Into - a distraught Senegal fan Poland: failed as Germany had, but outdone even in this. Japan squeak by on four points, and fewer yellow cards received compared to Senegal, with already-eliminated Poland all but settled for the face-saving consolation victory. Colombia sit between Uruguay and Portugal in the latest odds, which seems reasonable... and not exactly great news for England.
Next: Quick Ins And Outs
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