It's certainly been an eventful second week to 2020, eh? Allow us to work through it systematically, by sorting through the immediate aftermath of Great America's strike. As the world teetered on the edge of World War III, at least amongst the badly-informed Reddit set, there was a lot of wailing, gnashing of teeth and "Death To America"-ing from Iran, i.e. nothing at all out of the ordinary. The leadership however faced an inextricable quandary - they had to retaliate in some capacity to satisfy their constituents, but they also wanted to do it in such a way that they wouldn't be scheduled to explode in the same manner as their recently-departed general. You have to understand, Iran were up against a guy that wanted to nuke a fucking hurricane. Sure, they might be true believers in Allah and all, but this realization had to give them pause.
It didn't help that the assassinated general had been their top brain for just these kinds of situations, as the Iranian leadership flailed about between multiple very bad options, at one point threatening to attack Israel and Dubai (cue Dubai: "wtf buddy, I no do shit buddy wtf?"); anyway, they rationally settled for peppering an emptied U.S. base in Iraq (sadly, nobody seems to care about them at the moment) after being very careful to inform the Iraqis to tell the Americans to please go out back for a while, and falsely claiming 80 casualties where there were actually none (to the great disappointment of the Democrats), and claiming victory (pls no hit back pls)
Over to the diplomatic end. So, Iran's foreign minister went to the United Nations to complain... sorry, tried to go to the U.N., because the U.N. is located in New York, which is in America, who unfortunately had just run out of visas for Iranian officials (recall the observation on this blog last month that "perhaps the United Nations being based in New York actually means nothing, but I doubt it"). They then went to the Europeans, but were essentially told "Bad Iran, sit down, be quiet, behave, stop hitting yourself; why are you hitting yourself?" - seriously, read the official U.K./French/German and NATO statements, that didn't even dare to mention TRUMP or America, and tell me that's not what the gist of their message was.
Overview of the U.S.-Iran "tussle"
But no, Iran weren't prepared to be pliable just yet, and the beating thereof self would continue until morale improved. The dearly-departed general's funeral would first take fifty-plus more of his own countrymen, and the news would soon come that an Ukrainian passenger airplane had just crashed near Tehran, reportedly containing another 82 Iranians, but also citizens of six other countries (mostly Canada). The initial insistence from Iran that it was due to "technical difficulties" would belatedly morph into "technically we hit the plane with a missile, so it had difficulties", as their propaganda efforts were crushed under the weight of incontrovertible video evidence (not applicable to Epstein, though), right as Rouhani tweeted about IR655. Latest updates have thousands of enraged Iranians spontaneously out on the streets demanding the Ayatollah's head due to the failed deception, cementing the GOD-EMPEROR's complete victory, though I'm unsure if the FAKE NEWS will present it as such.
This declaration of so much winning isn't just (warranted) trolling, either - consider GEOTUS's long-term objectives:
I continue to be constantly amazed, whenever the GOD-EMPEROR's achievements are objectively presented (unlike in the FAKE NEWS) - were Zhuge Liang to be reincarnated, would he even be comparable in terms of strategic genius? No, the reigning GEOTUS has already set a standard for presidents that most mortals won't be able to meet.
I mean, just try to reason clearly about the situation: honestly, why does Iran need to spam centrifuges for uranium enrichment? Scientific curiosity? Electrical power generation? It's one place where "do think think cheap oil for power plants just flows out of the ground?" can be answered with "Yes, yes it does"! Does anybody seriously believe that the mullahs turned to nuclear research because Greta Thunberg how-dared-them? Nah, the nuclear program was obviously a ransom, the JCPOA was being flouted anyhow, with France now admitting that Iran's perhaps a year from the bomb despite the agreement, which is exactly why GEOTUS wants it renegotiated before it's too late.
Of course, you wouldn't expect China to agree, given they're next in the firing line, but Europe being Europe and dithering even after attacks on their own soil is extremely disappointing, to say the least. However, consider the reality of the situation: previous traitorous efforts to bypass American sanctions on Iran by opening a financial backdoor (INSTEX) have proven largely useless (much like the current state of Europe, for that matter); the sad and bitter truth is that Europe simply can't save the existing Iran nuclear deal - if Great America wants the deal dead, it's dead (like Soleimani), because the other parties can't fulfil their side of the bargain under U.S. sanctions (now extended to any INSTEX users). While Europe are keeping a collective brave face for now, it should be remembered that BoJo had already called for a new TRUMP DEAL back last September, after strongly backing the initial strike and also now pursuing a "special relationship" with Hungary, as predicted in last week's outline of an Alliance of Greats. The world turns.
Maybe slightly disrespectful, but mostly very accurate
Some of my more prim and proper readers might be aghast here, at what appears to be outright bullying by Great America. What have Europe done to deserve this? About this, can I tell you a secret? The deep, dark hidden conspiracy behind NATO and the European Union? Let's begin with the history.
Not so long ago, there was this charming neighbourhood, which we'll call West Eurasia - plenty of pedigree, post-gentrified, you know the sort. It also happened to be a perpetual warzone that would make today's Middle East look like a kid's playground. The Holy Romans whacked the French, the French whacked the Holy Romans and themselves, the Brits whacked everyone, the Spanish and Dutch came home just to join in the whacking, numerous small states were birthed, struggled mightily, and expired, and in the middle of it all, the Swiss counted gold bars in their mountain bunkers - not a bad gig if you can get it.
Sometime in the middle of it all, one of Tommy's sons Sammy wisely moved out from this abusive environment, and settled over in the next street. He did pretty well for himself too, and when things got serious - and in this neighbourhood, serious means serious - Uncle Sam was able to wade back into the fray, crack a few heads to end the pub brawl, and retire to his own house because, frankly, why would anybody sensible want to get permanently entangled in that tribal crap? Anyway, Uncle Sam thought - quite reasonably - that he had done enough for his old mates for a bit, and after some quality alone time in which he smooched up some flapper girls and lost most of his savings in the stock market (but not to worry, he made most of it back), Uncle Sam would pop back to his old neighbourhood with pizza and beer to check up on how things were going...
WHAT THE EFF IS GOING ON HERE?!
So, it seemed that Uncle Jerry had gone on another of his berserk rages after one pilsner too many and decked Uncle Pierre as usual, that bloody Ivan had egged them on and scooted, Papa Tommy had tried to separate them but failed because he's not what he once was, and the various other usual suspects were lying around nursing conditions between broken limbs and vegetative comas. With a sigh, Uncle Sam clipped the still-squabbling Jerry and Pierre on the ears, and addressed them: "Look, Jerry, I've seen your browser history, I know you are into some sick shit, but you've gone too damn far this time. And Pierre, what have I told you about walls? You want to build a wall, you complete the job, and not leave a big stonking hole through the middle! And you lost again with a handicap?!"
Well, Pierre was still screaming about how he should be allowed to suckerpunch Jerry, but Uncle Sam was like "No, no, you two total fuck-ups, there will be no more of that while I'm here, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me". And Uncle Sam got Pierre and Jerry and gang to hand over all their guns and other sharp objects, because they clearly couldn't be trusted to behave in an adult manner. Uncle Sam then realized that he had forgotten something, said "excuse me", went the next street down, nuked the Nipponese, came back, and was like where were we again? And peace returned to the land.
So, just to sidetrack a bit, Uncle Sam then went back to the Nipponese, who were all (inspired by Zeihan's telling) "alas, we have lost, we have dishonoured our ancestors, without raw materials our empire is finished, let half of us commit seppuku and the other half become your serfs"; and Uncle Sam was all, are you lot mental or what, look, let's make a deal - all you have to do is chant "Soviet bad, Commies bad", and we will help you import all the commodities you need, and protect you from the invading U.S.S.R & Communist China into the bargain. And the Nipponese were very confused, because they had never much liked the Russians or Chinese anyway, and they had to confirm whether they had mistakenly won the war instead.
When Great America friend-friend, prosper-prosper!
So, back to the present and the secret. Now, if you ask the layman about what NATO and the European Union are about, chances are that he'll say something about countering the Soviet Union (today, Russia) and stemming Communism and the like. Now, this is not wrong, just that if push comes to shove, I'd say that even the U.S.S.R at the peak of its powers was at most a secondary motivation for maintaining NATO and the E.U.
Yes, clever reader, the primary foe, the bête noire, of NATO and its European members has always been... themselves.
Paying A Fair Price
At the heart of the European alliance crisis, then, lies a very simple contradiction. GOD-EMPEROR TRUMP thinks that, as it stands, America contributes far more to Europe through NATO than it receives. Some of the Europeans, most prominently France and Germany, don't seem to think so. Honestly, the unvarnished truth is that TRUMP is correct, as usual.
Sure, if you read the wrong brand of FAKE NEWS, you'll find crazy articles such as "Why Europe hates TRUMP more than Iran", but let's get real here: Europe have been the beneficiary of an insanely-good deal for the past three decades or so, with America doing all the heavy military lifting. And, in return for America slogging it in the Middle East (which is geographically far closer to Europe than America, note), manning frozen outposts in the Arctic, and joining in their personal vendettas in Libya (where France and Italy were on opposing sides to boot), the Europeans have been so, so ungrateful.
You may know that kind of person; Pierre drops his kids over for baby-sitting every Friday, gets used to it, then one fine day you inform him that you won't be in, and he goes all side-eyed and spreads gossip about you; Jerry, pay his bar tab most every meet-up, forget your wallet one fine day, and he will self-righteously go on about how stingy and transactional you are, and how real friends don't make friends pay... wait, what? Have all these "world leaders" adopted Aladdin's Princess Jasmine as their professional role model?
No, none of this is going to fly under GEOTUS TRUMP. Recall, TRUMP is first and foremost a businessman. Unlike your run-of-the-mill no-skin-in-game socialist or civil service bureaucrat (but I repeat myself), TRUMP has an unparalleled nose for value, he knows who's getting the better end of a deal, and when it comes to NATO, it's definitely Europe. Now, through history, empires have almost always diverted wealth from its vassals to its core - think Rome, China, the bunga mas tribute from Malaysian states to Thailand, closer to home. Great America has been perhaps unique in how much of a discount they have given, which ties into TRUMP's consistent grand strategy. Recall the slogan, "Greedy for America", from the previous election? The Donald has a great memory, and frankly, he doesn't lie. Not about such.
Oh, some countries have been quicker on the uptake than others; South Korea, for example, understood how it was to be, and basically caved in their trade negotiations in 2018. They're now haggling over an additional US$5 billion to help support American forces in Seoul, which I consider still a tremendous bargain. Same for Japan, premier Shinzo Abe gifted TRUMP golden golf clubs and then very carefully lost to the GOD-EMPEROR over eighteen holes, and got off relatively easy. Saudi Arabia are coughing up the odd billion or so extra, and TRUMP should be ashamed because he's not giving the shop away for free?! The Europeans, in contrast, seem relatively naive after basement-dwelling and having chicken tendies served to them, and their piss jars removed on the regular, since 1946.
Return Of The Shitshow
(Original source: bloomberg.com)
If any of those prim and proper readers yet remain, they might be horrified at the above assertions. But the Europeans are so cultured and civilized! Not like the warmongering Americans (which, actually, furthers the point about popular propaganda)! No, truly I tell you, perhaps these guys can get together for Eurovision contests and stuff, but consider that Europe has basically been fractured throughout its history. Take China - yes, it's fallen into chaos every century or two, but at the end, most everybody kowtows to the winning warlord and new Emperor, because they all acknowledge a shared culture. Not Europe. Without a beneficent force holding them together from outside (hint hint, Great America), there will be blood.
Just look at the French - see, I can appreciate a certain level of romance in a guy, but I still have to gasp at Macron proposing the expense of a full-fledged European army (led by yours truly, it goes without saying), when his own citizens are burning his own capital down every weekend because of not enough money. Faced with this, what does Fräulein Merkel do? Cozy up to Putin, of course (and this was going on well before the Iran situation, with Germany bent on importing gas via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from their "supposed enemy")! Can you now blame the Polish for waking up with a cold sweat at night, haunted by the ghosts of Molotov-Ribbentrop? Especially when polls have consistently affirmed that the majority of Germans aren't keen on defending NATO allies in the first place, not that they could if they wanted, while somehow, inexplicably, believing they can? Personally, there is a mad amount of delusion going on here.
Ok, fine, Germany's not gonna do shit, so Great America prepares to move their forces to Poland, and Poland very responsibly puts in a US$400 million order for American rocket launchers and tanks. Surely France and Germany would be happy at this contribution towards securing the Eastern front? Nope, "Europe is worried about Poland's plans to buy a large batch of tanks"! And wait, does this imply that Poland is not a part of Europe now (to be honest, when the FAKE NEWS says "Europe", they tend to mean "France & Germany, maaayybe Italy")?
Honestly, the way I see it, Europe has two outs:
Myself, I'd hope France & Germany see the light and save themselves a lot of pain, but I fear they have become too brainwashed by liberal propaganda to do so...
[To be continued...]
Next: A Study In Memes
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