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Sunday, July 03, 2022 - 13:54 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Game Status Update II


They're even adopting Twilight Struggle terminology now...
(Source: globaltimes.cn)


Back to business, I suppose, and to follow up on the previous The Greatest Game update, about a month and a half ago - the involvement of bloc-specific "alphabet soup" cliques appears happening as projected, with the NATO/Shanghai Pact conflict expanding into a G7 vs. BRICS matchup (the twain notably sharing no members between them) too. But, before that, we might translate the developments into Twilight Struggle terms:


Turn 11, Action Round 1 (Team Red)


Nicaragua to Team Red


Team Red plays NATO for 4 Ops, resolving the Event after Ops.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Nicaragua (1/2), gaining Control for Team Red; Russia stations troops in Nicaragua, raising shades of the Cuban Missile Crisis and frontrunning a nascent Coup by Team Blue. This also maintains a foothold in Central America, enabling potential future Influence spreads to Cuba (watch out for overtures by Team Blue), Honduras and Costa Rica.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Brazil (1/1), further weakening Team Blue's hold on South America, who are already disgruntled with U.S. hypocrisy on democracy/development in the region.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in India (2/2), balancing Team Blue's attempt to draw India into their orbit through the Quad and IPEF, by re-emphasizing Team Red's Indian connections via the Shanghai Pact and BRICS etc. One suspects India would be happy enough to remain courted by both blocs, as they start paying for Russian coal with Chinese yuan.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in South Africa (1/2), pressing Team Red's current Domination advantage in Africa.

NATO event resolves for Team Blue, with the declining alliance reactivated and given new purpose. NATO officially declares China a challenge/enemy for the first time, to expected protest* from Team Red. Foreign Policy becomes the latest major pundit to declare a new Global Cold War era.

[*China Daily has further identified the choice of Madrid as host, as a sign of further NATO expansionism from what happened after the last time the Spanish capital held the Summit in 1997 (having already complained about Singa-proxy-hosting** the Shangri-La Dialogue in the interests of Team Blue, as explained here in May. Nothing much resulted from the Dialogue, but good kopi & mineral water was indeed to be had.)]

[**And to be honest, we have our fair share of Putin/Xi authoritarian-lovers here. But what could one expect, given the acceptance of arrests for holding up a smiley face?]


Turn 11, Action Round 1 (Team Blue)

Team Blue plays NORAD for 3 Ops; Canada pledges US$40 billion over 20 years to upgrade the continental defence system, but it remains to be seen how much of that will come through. Team Blue needs the Influence badly for now.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Turkey (3/2), yielding concessions on Kurdish terrorist groups towards the lifting of their veto on Finland and Sweden's request to join NATO.

2 Ops: +1 Influence in Sweden (3/0), +1 Influence in Finland (4/1). Both historically-neutral Nordic states are now close to falling under Team Blue's Control, as the Anglos make their push to Dominate Europe, despite economic disaster looming over the continentals. There has then been an effort by the Anglos to smooth matters over with their vacillating European allies, with Australia settling with the French over their aborted submarine deal, with things getting all too real.


Turn 11, Action Round 2 (Team Red)


That's +3 on the "military operations other than war" track
(Source: euractiv.com)


Team Red plays Socialist Governments for its Ops.

Coup! (3 Ops): -2 Team Blue Influence in Bulgaria (0/2), after Team Red rolls a 5; Pro-American Bulgarian government collapses, after losing a no-confidence vote. Coup, what Coup? What's good for Pakistan is good for Bulgaria, so they say - we did point out that Eastern Europe's always exciting. DEFCON degrades back to 3 (alternative ruleset in play here). Russia warns the Anglos that London is first up on their nuclear hit-list, with Warsaw now also mentioned alongside Berlin and Paris (as foreshadowed); Don't see Madrid/Rome/Athens coming under threat just yet...


Turn 11, Action Round 2 (Team Blue)

Team Blue plays Marshall Plan for 4 Ops; the Event allowing one Team Blue Influence in up to seven non-Team Red Controlled Western European states had to be very tempting, but alas, Europe is not where Cold War II will be won or lost. Instead, it will be the G7 to raise US$600 billion to compete directly with China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), which should be well worth 4 Influence, to the right client-states. Despite Team Blue indeed "coughing up some medals" (to much unspoken pain; well, we did warn that it won't be cheap), however, there do remain doubts about whether they will be able to actually execute these infrastructure plans, from how the BRI had been largely motivated by excess and abundant Chinese labour - a specific advantage that doesn't apply to advanced G7 nations.

Moreover, this move should embolden developing countries to try and play both sides to an even greater extent, with the Alliance of Democracies now having shown a willingness to spread the moolah to preserve the failing Liberal World Order; but eh, 4 Ops now is 4 Ops now:

2 Ops: +2 Influence in Poland (5/0). Permanent U.S. military base established in Poland. If Team Blue is going to save what remains of Ukraine, they're going to have to send a lot more help through Eastern Europe - and fast. It might not be enough.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Australia (5/1). Similarly for the Pacific, overprotection is the name of the game. Team Blue has just proposed a "Partners in the Blue Pacific" (PBP) pact consisting of the Aussies, U.S., U.K., N.Z., Japan and some say France, to counter Beijing in the region.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Kenya (1/1). Team Blue figures they might as well play something into Africa, and who better than proxy-Singa to do the scutwork? This was what the Forum of Small States (FOSS) had been ordered to be formed for anyhow, with our PM expectedly name-dropping it during his Rwandan visit***, in which a Singapore-Africa Partnership Package under the Singapore Cooperation Programme (SCP) was announced.

[***Interestingly, right on the heels of the U.K. signing an agreement with Rwanda, to deport their illegal immigrants to the African country. The modern "Space Race"?]


Pretty by the book for these couple of months; hope it stays that way, for fewer... unfortunate misunderstandings. Nice to see Dr. Mahathir keep up with his prizewinning trolling at his age, nonetheless, with his latest suggestion that Singapore and the Riau Islands should be returned to Johor, simply a work of art. That's what keeps him up and (sorta) sharp, I reckon.



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Next: Updating The Update!


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