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Thursday, Aug 04, 2022 - 22:26 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Play By Play

A week and a half has passed since the last update for The Greatest Game, and here we return to Action Round 4 for both teams, where we left off on July 11. Recall that Team Red gained knowledge of Team Blue's remaining cards in hand through Lone Gunman then: Blockade, Formosan Resolution, Quagmire and Grain Sales to Soviets. With this in mind, following a brief Xi-Putin huddle, their next card is... Nuclear Subs for 2 Ops, resolving the Event after Ops.


Turn 11, Action Round 4 (Team Red)


(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, newsweek.com)


Russia has, of course, just taken delivery of a chonker of a "research" submarine that just happens to be armed with second-strike capable underwater nuclear drones, curiously as New York begins broadcasting Duck and Cover nuclear preparedness commercials out of nowhere. Teammates Iran and North Korea* have upped their nuke talk too in the past week in unison, with an emboldened Russia officially expanding their goals past Donbas, with hints at Georgia (if later walked back). Fairly ambitious, if I do say so myself.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Syria (2/3). For all the far-fetched pronouncements in the Western media, it appears that Putin is hardly as persona non grata as they are attempting to make him out to be, with Vladdy scooting back to the Middle East for a sit-down with Raisi and Erdogan, with the latter beckoning enticingly on the fence. As for concrete aid to the region, China has it under way, with Syria the object of their largesse this time. It's not nice to ignore the old proxy war just because a shinier new one has just started, no?

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Malaysia (1/2). Concurrently, China can flaunt a five-point consensus agreement with our northern neighbours, with their commitment for the BRI and GDI seemingly secured. The "Malacca Dilemma" has of course long been a thorn in the side of Chinese planners, and let's just say that money talks very persuasively, especially if applied consistently over a long time (and to the right targets). This came right on the tails of a warning by their Foreign Minister that Asian nations should not become chess pieces for big powers (sorta-acknowledging The Greatest Game), which could sound a little ironic but for the rider that "The future of our region should be in our own hands" (i.e. this pawning does not apply to Asian powers, such as us truly)

Event resolves, allowing Team Blue to Coup Battleground Countries freely for the rest of the Turn - but given the recent backlash to their Coup admissions, one understands if they were to be more circumspect. Perhaps why Team Red decided to go with the card at this moment? Of course, if they were to, say, assassinate the President of Haiti (as happened last year) or meddle in Tunisia (both with 0/0 Influence), nobody would care too much. I'm sure the Haitians and Tunisians are delightful people by and large, but that's how it is. Sorry.

[*In the case of North Korea, something's generally up when they're not threatening to explode a nuke; a few quiet years from Kim should merit a courtesy call, although the best hopes for sincere reconciliation appear to have evaporated together with the previous U.S. admin's more personal approach.]


Turn 11, Action Round 4 (Team Blue)


(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, aljazeera.com)


That had to merit a firm response by the Blues, and they go with the best card they have in hand: Grain Sales To (From) Soviets. Turkey had brokered a grain export deal between warring nations Russia and Ukraine towards the end of July, which had to come as some relief to poorer states dependant on Ukrainian wheat. Lebanon (1/0 Influence) has for one apparently just appropriated grain supplies bound for Syria, but one can hardly blame them given how their economy is currently in the gutter. Expect to see more such acts from desperate countries, if the ongoing food shortages persist.

Team Blue plays the card for its Event, and draws from an unhappy Team Red's hand... Nuclear Test Ban! It looks like they have struck the jackpot here, with four Ops! They're certainly not about to play this for the Event, having just withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty a few years back, so here goes the Influence:

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Saudi Arabia (3/1). Moving away from fossil fuels to combat climate change sounds cool and all, until gas begins to top five bucks a gallon at home. After hitting up Venezuela to little avail, Biden had seemingly realized that the Saudis remain his best bet, and had therefore returned to the Middle East to contest the region. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sure looked just a bit smug when fist-bumping POTUS and being welcomed by an embattled Macron, to me. When it comes to energy against principles, it's no contest every time. This also makes it somewhat awkward keeping a straight face at the "democracies" vs. autocracies presentation of Twilight Struggle: New Moon by Team Blue...

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Israel (4/2). You might think Israel is blue as Blue can be, but really there's only one entity they're looking out for, first and foremost. While it remains quite unlikely that they'll switch camps, Iran actually getting the bomb might trigger some existential decisions that we'd best not get to see. Better safe than sorry for Team Blue in giving some attention to their Middle Eastern mainstays, then.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in India (3/2). Likewise, there doesn't seem much realistic prospects for pulling the Indians into the Blue camp permanently for now, but having them lean the "right way" is very possible - for a price. It's been quite a profitable period for the Indians, frankly, what with discounted Russian oil, renewed Sri Lankan Influence** (with their Minor Coup-ed ex-President cooling his heels in Singapore, I suppose also with free kopi if he wants) and a foot very much in both Teams. The added Influence sees India proceed with their annual joint exercise with the U.S. near their disputed border with China, though if the payoffs stop coming...

1 Ops: +1 Influence in the United Kingdom (6/1). While the U.S.-U.K. Special Relationship has probably been as closely-aligned as any two (non-vassaled) nations have been in the modern era, and one really doesn't see the U.K. flipping - especially after Brexit - they ain't taking any chances either. BoJo's gone (for now), and while he can hardly be accused of skimping on support for Ukraine (or exploiting them to bleed the Russians, depending on which side you're listening to), his would-be Tory replacements have only cranked up the rhetoric against Team Red, with Sunak proposing to close all of China's Confucius Institutes in the U.K., swiftly matched by main rival Truss. With the U.S. also just ratifying the U.K.-sponsored push to let Sweden and Finland into NATO, one has to imagine Team Blue has Europe Scoring in hand - except they don't.

[**With Joseph Stalin arrested for protesting. You gotta admire his commitment to historically-accurate reenactment.]


Turn 11, Action Round 5 (Team Red)


(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, brics2021.gov.in)


Losing the Ops of Nuclear Test Ban will have to smart for Team Red, but they do have possession of The Russia Card (to be revealed), which affords some protection against such hand size attacks. It's Flower Power for 4 Ops, then.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Algeria (1/1). BRICS+ continues taking shape, with Algeria ("Africa's largest natural gas exporter") being the latest downtrodden victim of colonialism (so goes the neo-Soviet line) to seriously consider joining up. Africa might not be as rich as the major regions in terms of available VP, but it sure as heck is easier to Dominate if the other Team's not careful - which Team Blue arguably hasn't been.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Hungary (1/2). Team Red can't let Europe go that easily, and while they may have lost Poland, there's no shortage of alternatives. Serbia (i.e. much of the old Yugoslavia) probably remains tilted towards them, for one, and Hungary has all but leapt at the opportunity to secure gas supplies from Russia. Resources talk, bullshit walks.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Italy (1/1). Italy's always been a prime Coup/Brush War target to deny Europe Domination in vanilla Twilight Struggle, and it's not looking all that different in the expansion pack. Draghi's resignation has reignited worries about them leaving the Eurozone, if (probably) not the European Union itself, and let's just say that the Fed's profligacy*** has seen the Yuan look increasingly tempting, especially to Europe's more financially-troubled members. Winter will surely see national resolves tested, with the grey and red of Russian gas and Chinese cash dangled against the blue and yellow of the Ukrainian cause.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Pakistan (1/1). We had observed that Imran Khan's popularity at home was and remains very high (and noted the dangers of playing both sides before that in March), and Khan's party has already retaken the important province of Punjab, weeks after the not-a-Coup. Khan's demand for early elections (in which he would have to be the favourite) has been hobbled for now by accusations of foreign funding, but one just can't see him remaining on the sidelines for much longer, despite all these little tricks.

[***Apparently after attempted infiltration by China. The CCP needn't have bothered - the Fed bankers are doing a pretty damn fine job of mismanaging the U.S. dollar by themselves.]


Turn 11, Action Round 5 (Team Blue)


(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, lemonde.fr)


One would have to be blind as a bat not to have seen this coming from April, but that certainly didn't detract from how huge of a hoo-ha it caused. Team Blue plays Formosan Resolution for its Event, as U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi touched down in Taiwan (after a brief stop here) on the third of August, despite numerous "final warnings" from the mainland Chinese authorities, including semi-official (and not very credible, especially with a carrier group lurking) threats that her plane(s) could be downed.

With the latest Biden-Xi virtual kibbutz not having yielded any progress on the Taiwan question (and truthfully, nor was it expected to), Taiwanese broadcaster TVBS would break the news of Pelosi's arrival, leading to her (supposed) ride being tracked by hundreds of thousands of curious spectators, crashing the Flightradar24 website. Although American congressional delegations have routinely visited, this remained the highest-profile flouting of Beijing's thin red line in twenty-five years, what more in an already-tense geopolitical climate. There would be no direct aggression as the CCP stewed, to the dismay of WW3 cheerleaders, as China's response would be limited to stern commentaries, ambassador summonings and a more reciprocally-provocative and larger-than-usual military live-firing exercise, technically inside Taiwanese waters.

This retaliation appears within expected (and acceptable) parameters by the White House, but the recklessness of the act has had some suspect that they had not fully sanctioned the trip (all the more with Pelosi sprinkling the feminism). Playing the card for the Event isn't unreasonable in the sense that spending Ops to Control Taiwan through Influence could well tip DEFCON to 1, though the situation's still spicy enough that the President of South Korea has declined to meet Pelosi, despite being very much on the same Team. Nonetheless, the 2 Influence could have been well-received elsewhere, but I suppose Team Blue's out to send a signal.

From another perspective, Pelosi's visit - a quarter-century after Gingrich - could be interpreted as an acknowledgement that American rapprochement through trade and cultural exchanges had failed, with China determined to strike out on their own, whilst their stars are aligned/rising and concurrent with (relative) U.S. decline (notably, a topic that our Foreign Minister skilfully sidestepped, alongside a call for restraint). More seriously, however, while the odds of it all blowing up might have been correctly ascertained to be low this time, one would be expected to eventually hit snake eyes, if he insists on continually rolling the dice. But that's The Greatest Game for you: you might not be interested in The Game, but The Game is sure as heck interested in you!



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