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Tuesday, Aug 09, 2022 - 22:24 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Turning In A Widening Gyre

The first Turn of Twilight Struggle: New Moon is about to come to a conclusion - but first, a public service announcement from the game organizers their United Nations lackeys:


And ignore all the past theories that actually came true
(Original sources: unesco.org, mangakakalot.com)


That settled, it's not been a great month for the Globohomo Old World Order establishment, with yet rising recognition that the Cold War Game is back in town - and possibly just entered into the oceanic arena, and the Indo-Pacific region in particular. With the opening innings close to over, armchair generals are questioning the wisdom of Pelosi's blatantly intentional (and entirely avoidable) provocation over Taiwan, which has had the Chinese Foreign Ministry fuming at Team Blue (literally) "playing the Taiwan card" (i.e. Formosan Resolution, as covered last week), and their state media calling it their Cuban Missile Crisis (a hint that DEFCON is now at 2?)

The immediate response from China has been a near-total suspension of dialogue with Team Blue leaders the U.S.A., with the Pentagon unable to put calls through to their PLA counterparts, which is probably understating the desired level of escalation from domestic nationalists - and with a population of some 1.4 billion, there's a lot of them to placate. This play has in turn surely driven China only closer to Russia, with a gas pipeline from Siberia to Shanghai - that will mitigate their energy vulnerabilities by sea - well under way. Not that Russia's having too many issues selling their oil, it seems - they just have to launder it through the Saudis first.

The collision course between Team Red and Team Blue has been nervously acknowledged by our leaders for our latest National Day, but to be honest one figures their hands are tied to a large extent. The dim prospects for Globohomo have only been underscored by how its greatest proponent - America - has been unable to get their own house in order, with the FBI raiding fair and fabled Hamalot on what's looking like trumped-up charges, as opposed to investigating associates of those actually in office, despite actual photographic evidence (but, that may be changing). As it is, despite some pretty flagrant banning/manipulation of betting odds (N.B. compare medians/averages to outliers in rankings), DeDonald remains far and away the GOP's frontrunner for 2024 - and the obvious ticket with DeSantis as V.P. is looking a locked-on winner.

That D&D tag-team victory will certainly spark a ton of anguished screeching in the hallowed halls of D.C., but first, they've to get through this Turn, in The Greatest Game!


Turn 11, Action Round 6 (Team Red)


(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, voanews.com)


The U.S. Secretary of State has belatedly made a foray into Africa - with BRICS mainstay South Africa a particular target - in what the Voice of America* and CNBC amongst other Team Blue media outlets have described as "echoes of the Cold War", and "vying with Russia for Influence" (2 to 4 Ops, in this case). The mask seems to be slipping, folks. Oh wait, this is Team Red's Action Round, and they certainly aren't about to let this pass, if they are able to. That's The Voice of America diverted to the Space Race, then, as China rolls a 2. Remember, low rolls are desirable for this track, and this gives Team Red 2 VP for Earth Satellite success (with their commercial CERES-1 vehicle just placing three into orbit), for a -1 VP lead overall.

PRC mouthpiece Global Times has taunted that the U.S. has poor chances of turning Africa against them and Russia, and on this statement, I would have to largely concur with their analysis. It is broadly true that Africa has been grossly neglected by the colonizing slavers self-styled "enlightened defenders of democracy", and whatever one thinks of the local dictators, most of them have to be canny enough to distinguish between actual, concrete roads and bridges on the ground - if with strings attached - as opposed to righteous lectures delivered from on high (also with strings attached anyway). No additional Influence gained by Blinken here, as the Africans (correctly) await actual goodies instead of yet more speeches - and payment on delivery only.

[*A bit of history on the VOA; it is the oldest U.S.A.-funded international broadcaster (since 1942), and was responsible for good ol' radio propaganda to Soviet client states, through Cold War I. The infusion of woke messaging and general decline in credibility of the American mainstream media is seriously affecting their effectiveness in the new edition, however, and it remains to be seen if Team Blue will correct course.]


Turn 11, Action Round 6 (Team Blue)


Ohnonono, who could have imagined this would happen?
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, scmp.com)


Pelosi's scooted from Taiwan after declaring that China's real reason for being mad at her is because she's a woman (and no, I suppose they can't date her), leaving behind a conflagration the likes of which have not been seen across the Straits for decades. The cessation of dialogue and other cooperation aside, China has deployed what has been widely recognized as a full-on Blockade of their rebel island province (so they say), with their massive military drills now extended past the original Sunday deadline. Taiwan's complaining that the drills appear to simulate an attack on their main island, which is the point.

Here, it might be noted that Blockade takes place during Team Blue's Action Round, which is thematically sound, given that one would be hard-pressed to deny that it was their action that provided the catalyst for the development. Team Blue's play of Blockade for Ops was their go-to move, given that the alternative was Quagmire extending into the next Turn, and they duly (happily) discard Quagmire to the Event (with the befuddled West German delegation wondering what this has to do with them). Best hope they not draw it back next, eh.

As it stands, some have cast this play as yet another milestone for the New Cold War, and given how the U.S.A. is having their carrier strike group stick around - and perhaps even make a transit - it almost feels like Team Blue are trying to instigate a full-blown war (as forecast by the Wall Street Journal), to which it should be noted that nukes were very much on the table, during a similar situation in 1958. The strategic calculus isn't all that complicated: China likely has the wherewithal to enforce a de-facto Blockade of Taiwan indefinitely - if perhaps not an amphibious assault - barring external interference. The U.S. of A likewise certainly can try to bust such a Blockade if it comes to that (the Formosan Sealift?), but then aircraft carriers do make very large targets for hypersonic missiles. Can enough Dongfeng-17s sink a Nimitz-class carrier? Personally, I'd rather not find out, but the U.S.A. seems to be cranking up the temperature to thaw out the frozen Cold War...

On the bright side, China does have quite a lot of less-destructive means of engagement, the most accessible probably being simple trade sanctions, with specific measures such as sand export bans able to directly target their construction and semiconductor industries. Keeping up the (technically legal) military exercises would also make shipping insurance for voyages to Taiwan a lot more expensive - or even unavailable - and make it somewhat trickier for outside parties to get themselves involved. Let's see.

1 Ops: Team Blue attempts Realignment in South Africa (1/2), probably since 1 Influence isn't much to play with anyhow. They are at a slight disadvantage, with Team Red having a +1 modifier from their initial Influence lead, with Angola (0/1) and Botswana (3/1) split between the Teams - but one senses that Team Blue is happy enough to just shake things up here. Team Blue rolls a 5, but Team Red rolls a 4, and it's a wash. The Influence situation in South Africa remains unchanged, Blinken gets their Foreign Minister to make some vague motherhood statements on resolving the Ukraine conflict through diplomacy, and a photoshoot with a jeans designer.


End of Turn 11, Cleanup Phase

With that, Turn 11 comes to a close, with Team Red in the lead by 1 VP thanks to their Tech/Space Race headstart, with the Required Military Operations satisfied for both due to Bulgaria (3 Ops) for Team Red, and Pakistan (4 Ops, grandfathered in) for Team Blue. Formosan Resolution is however deemed to have dropped DEFCON to 2, which means that it should be raised back to 3 only at the beginning of the next Turn. The Russia Card, a new feature of the New Moon expansion, remains unrevealed. This may be a good time to catch a breather, before the Teams put down their Headlines for Turn 12...



It's all about The Game and how you play it/
All about Control and if you can take it!




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