Powered by glolg
Display Preferences Most Recent Entries Chatterbox Blog Links Site Statistics Category Tags About Me, Myself and Gilbert XML RSS Feed
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 - 02:28 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

The Game That Is To Be


Discarding the TraceForever token is an offence carrying a jail term of up to two years, citizen. Why not just keep it with you for life?
(Sources: mangakakalot.com x2, gov.sg)


That's it, folks. The Pandemic Game is officially over, so confirms Lord Fauci of Science, which we are suspecting is being driven by terrible Season 3 ratings, with the domestic audience now probably far more captivated by leaked news and purported trailers of historical horror hits Great Depression 2: Black Everyday, Subprime: Inflated and Oh My God It Just Keeps Going Down. And, with this, the FDA seems to have reframed COVID-19 as just a "common respiratory virus like the flu", and oh by the way did you know that one of the vaccines we approved may cause deadly blood clots (official announcement promptly fact-checked as misleading by Titter)? The FDA does seem to be holding fast on annual boo$ter$ (with Pfizer poking them in the back), but with the WHO saying that there's no good evidence that a fourth dose is beneficial, many countries (e.g. Denmark, England and us truly) appear to be offering it only to particularly at-risk groups. A fourth dose not being necessary and the self-assessment of personal risk being paramount seems to be the new stance of the US health establishment now too - and not just because they're a bit skint, one hopes. The science has spoken, after all.

With this, I suppose declaring the four-vaccine-samples-to-"win" prophecy (also inspired by Liar Game, last December, justified in more detail in February) to be mostly accurate should be fair enough. And as for the post last October that began the use of the Liar Game storyline to explain real-world happenings relating to the mind-bogglingly idiotic pandemic response and the underlying formation of opposing blocs in a contest of (geo)political skullduggery, well... my dear readers can be their own judge of how plausible it is, from recent developments.

Still, those explanations were largely merely fitting current and past events to the manga; the natural progression, then, would be to attempt to use it to predict future happenings. As it happens, the following arc of Liar Game does appear to match reality peculiarly closely in all probability, if maybe with a few minor divergences - but eh, a few minor details shouldn't get in the way of a good screen adaptation.


Will you pick the correct gang?
Alliance of Democracies/NATO, or Shanghai Pact/GSI?
(Source: mangakakalot.com)


Last June, it was warned here that "regrettably, the millions of excess dead from the coronavirus will probably be regarded as an appendix to what will very probably be recognized as Cold War II", and one sees little reason to walk that statement back right now. In the Liar Game telling, the Pandemic Game was merely the qualifiers for the Fourth Round - which one unavoidably can identify with the Fourth Turning of the Strauss-Howe generational theory. In it, this fourth era of a recurring saecula - as expounded on by the authors in 1997 - is a time of Crisis. A Winter of Death and Disinformation, some might say.

Our main character Kanzaki Nao, then, would represent the (below-)average participant in the Liar Game. Buffeted by an unending tide of very FAKE NEWS in the mainstream media (i.e. the game organizers), and social manipulation by her "friends" (i.e. competitors mostly), this dumbfuck kind-hearted heroine would have been mercilessly chewed up and discarded by the times, had she not gotten more-rational and hard-assed players (mostly Shinichi Akiyama) on her side. Unlike Nao, who tends to believe (and be repeatedly tricked/fooled by) any and all "trusted sources" (i.e. The NYT, WaPo, CNN, MSNPC, the FDA/NIH/Dr. Fauci, etc., you know the type) unreservedly, Akiyama refuses to take events at face value and applies critical thinking, which might as well be a superpower in this setting. Of course, Akiyama is not above some plotting and maneuvering of his own, if usually for the greater good... or is it?

We will return to the coronavirus response in the future, but suffice to say that the Pandemic Game - both in the manga and in real-life - ended in a stalemate for both blocs. While Nao/Akiyama stumbled through it by guilt-tripping allies (Butch/Slick in the Liar Game, and Germany/Switzerland etc. in reality) into sanctioning/withdrawing themselves after fudging the virus tests/trials and getting exposed, Yokoya's group survived handily too, warchest intact and eager for the next round, with it all starting on a (Solomon) island. As alluded to in the previous post, in any game, "the rules" tend to be of especial importance - and it is no different in the Liar Game.


Come on, we have played it before, from 1947 to 1991!
(Source: mangakakalot.com)


The ornately-masked Liar Game dealer, Alsab, cuts to the chase: the game is "Musical Chairs". Nao, bemused, requests for a clarification - is it that... rather simple game where fewer chairs than players are set out, the music plays, and players have to fight for a chair when the music stops, or be eliminated? Alsab confirms that it is indeed essentially so, with a few twists. Firstly, instead of music, the signal will be relayed via the players' TraceForever app/tokens. Secondly, after the signal is given, the players will have to touch a totem pole at the central forum, to be eligible to claim a chair. Thirdly, the chairs have spyware sensors, so only one player can claim each chair by covering all three sensors when seated.

Alsab then reminds that "the rules" prohibit overt violence (as in Ukraine), but it turns out that there are quite a few loopholes relating to... physical action, with some soon demonstrated. But before that, each player is provided with a box full of medals, which might be quite literally translated as a country's currency/natural resources, in the geopolitical analogy. Alsab informs the players that these medals can be exchanged for swag (i.e. [unipolar] superpower status, and the right to largely set "the rules", as with America and the United Nations in New York previously)... but this applies only to the winner's medals, which might then also be viewed as the new "global reserve currency" (i.e. the U.S. petrodollar, in the current era). The losers' medals are rendered worthless, as so often happens with the currencies of nation-states that lose such a challenge.

Nao's pal Fukunaga ("trans" before it was cool), and a decent player herself (mind your pronouns) if not quite Akiyama/Yokoya tier, recognizes "Musical Chairs"/Cold War II for what it is almost immediately - not a brute-force athletic (military) competition, but a multifaceted game of strategy. The mappings of the other elements of "Musical Chairs" to geopolitics are in fact later dissected in detail by the game organizers: the medals represent influence (and resources), as stated, while the chairs themselves represent territory (which Russia is currently trying to gain), while the players (and extras) represent a nation's population (also motivating the Ukraine war)


The globohomo puppet-masters helpfully spell it out
(Source: mangakakalot.com)


Clearly, having more of each of these elements is generally ideal, if with imbalances possibly causing problems. For example, having many chairs (land) but few players (citizens) makes it hard to defend the chairs/land; many players (citizens) gives the nation international heft - whether militarily, culturally or diplomatically - but is costly to upkeep (have to find enough chairs/food/iPods to support them all) and raises the risk of defection/betrayal (since the final prize has to be split more thinly). Finally, the medals (i.e. U.S. greenbacks, Chinese yuan, natural gas, vaccines, Ariana Grande, etc.) represent resources that can be used to bribe persuade "allies" to join one's nation/alliance/bloc/group/gang/whatever. Obviously, no nation has infinite resources, as the imminent failure of the Fed's hopeful money-printing reminds, so these rewards will have to be carefully distributed lest a nation face default and disgrace.

After Fukunaga explains all this to Nao, our resident AOC angel's first instinct is to implement Universal Basic Income and Modern Monetary Theory distribute all her medals to everyone, at which Fukunaga - who has her head screwed on right at least - forcefully impresses on her bunny-eared friend, that this is a sure road to ruin. Akiyama then continues by proposing that his group exchange their medals, which is reflected in real-life by America "gently suggesting" that all his friends use his "medals" (i.e. the U.S. dollar)... or else (Akagi, probably another FAKE NEWS devotee, finally realises what is happening at this point, leading Fukunaga to give one of the best lines of the arc). As the Cold War II decoupling continues, this will probably be further mirrored by distinct trade blocs forming.

This initial organization done, Akiyama's next step is to try and grab his nation/bloc one more member, which one supposes is his optimal "bloc size" as calculated; refer recent moves by America/China to enlist partners for their alliances/not-alliance groups. Fukunaga, self-interested as usual, is against expansion (consider current intra-NATO dissent, or the European Union's attitude towards Turkey as a member), but Akiyama has identified his man - Baldy. And if America (and perhaps China, in some cases) really wants you on his side, you bet Uncle Sam's getting what he wants, even if a freedom operation/colour revolution has to "accidentally" happen to encourage it (see: current regime changes in Pakistan/Sri Lanka, Iraq etc.)


Akiyama making a Major non-NATO ally offer you can't refuse
[N.B. Credit to the gahment, they seem to have managed to have Uncle Sam make up a synonym (re: "Major Security Cooperation Partner") just for us!]
(Source: mangakakalot.com)


Well, it has to be said that not all international relationships are fully consensual, and the first few rounds proceed, with relatively little drama given that there are still plenty of chairs (arable land?). The players gather to vote at the central forum (i.e. the United Nations/NATO/GSI? etc.) at regular intervals, which allows players to pass resolutions benefiting themselves. In the Liar Game case, this is limited to eliminating chairs that are not owned by their gang, while in real life, this can extend to issues such as "this sea is free for navigation by all (or not)". Of course, the various blocs/great powers understand when they're being targeted (e.g. the recent United Nations votes on the Ukraine situation), and the voting outcome then allows them to calibrate their diplomacy/strategy as required.

At this point, Yokoya is in a bit of a pinch, with his group being a little short on numbers (my intelligent reader might figure out which countries he best represents, in this analogy). Given this, Yokoya's response is to search for a - if not ally, then at least friend of some convenience - and he identifies a more spiritually-inclined player who might just be influential with his own grouping (ahem, India and the Third World, to an extent), for mutual diplomatic defence. This is hardly to say that they fully trust each other, however, with Yokoya and Harimoto working out an acceptable system of interaction involving protecting each others' chairs without exposing too much.

Akiyama soon realises that he might have overestimated his bloc's power somewhat, as he gets screwed over in open voting (as happens sometimes in certain United Nations organizations), but the smart fella soon realizes what has happened - a buddying-up that they thought unlikely. After some musing as to why everybody wouldn't love to support the "good guys" (in real life: but we only invaded liberated those countries with unanimous strong okay, some international consensus!), Nao comes up with the obvious solution - to get some of the unaligned players (countries) on their side, by offering medals (i.e. benefits such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which definitely imposes domestic costs)


Trade makes the world go round
(Source: mangakakalot.com)


Here, one of the special rules of this "Musical Chairs" variant might be emphasized - the same player may not sit in the same chair over consecutive rounds. The obvious parallel, then, would be to trade and globalization: almost no country nowadays has the ability to (comfortably) produce all they need by themselves (recall the face mask shortage), although some are closer to self-sufficiency than others (e.g. North Korea, if by greatly reducing "wants"), or have a much greater capacity for achieving such, if they so desire (e.g. America, China, Russia)

For other (smaller and less fortunate) players, however, there is little prospect of going it alone successfully. Although the most-profitable victory in "Musical Chairs" would be to keep all of one's own medals and rotate between two chairs to the very end, it is in practice impossible to execute, not the least because such a player would almost surely not be able to win any of the diplomatic elections (which would then eventually come to, hey that rich hoarder over there looks like he could use some freedom!). As such, whether they are wont to admit it or not, nearly all players would retain an association with some other players or blocs - while attempting (not always successfully, especially if the big guys strongly insist) to retain some nominal independence and "neutrality" - officially, at least.

Singapore has without a doubt been fretting over the impending end of globohomo for a while now, which would put us firmly in the ranks of the dispossessed bit-parters in the Liar Game recounting - i.e. the extras/"unaligned"/Gaya. It should be be noted that for some of these (political, not necessarily economical) "Third Worlders", their neutrality may not have been fully by choice - it was simply that the bigger powers were not even interested in a nominal partnership with them, seeing as they could just seize what they wanted by force or deceit anyway (and don't count on such acts being reported in the FAKE NEWS), and good luck reporting it to some higher authority. However, it's not like they have no cards to play...


We small fish have to stick together
(Source: mangakakalot.com)


The "Musical Chairs" game soon sees the formation of the Gaya Alliance, in which the previously largely-useless Gaya (who are already losers in the sense of having been eliminated from the game proper) band together into a unified voting bloc, and in this way are able to even extort medals from all active blocs. This is frankly not well-reflected in reality - as explained in March, U.N. General Assembly votes are mostly toothless - but I suppose there remains some value in being able to hoist the "nonideological, neutral and independent" flag by forming such honeytraps groups such as the Forum of Small States (in New York, no less). Back to the Liar Game, a player called Shima was credited with assembling the Gaya Alliance, but it would very soon be revealed that the mastermind behind that group was actually Akiyama. Maybe that was all too bloody obvious?

It turns out that Akiyama had recruited proxy-Singa Shima after the latter had "fallen from heaven straight to hell", as LKY might well have bewailed, as he wept when Singapore got expelled from Malaysia (i.e. lost their extra chair) in 1965, with the Brits also due to pull out their support. This, I hasten to add, is simply a total coincidence, and in any case the parallel between medals in Liar Game and support in realpolitik, is particularly weak. As America has just demonstrated, they are more than willing and able to refuse to honour their medals (i.e. dollars earned by other players/nations), when it suits them. Further, Shima's fate in the Liar Game is not a particularly prosperous one, and one which I hope we do not retread.

Returning to Yokoya, he then gambles on not having to buy votes despite his reduced means, since he figured that other players would support him to an extent nonetheless ("balancing" in political science parlance), to prevent the other blocs from winning outright (which would then allow the winning bloc to bully the now really-useless Gaya/third-worlders/unaligned). And indeed, this is what we are observing with Russia, with arguably a majority of the global population represented by players/countries not actively condemning their invasion.

We then leave with a riddle - considering all this, what are the more-plausible next developments, in the current developing geopolitical situation? Till next time...



comments (0) - email - share - print - direct link
trackbacks (0) - trackback url


Next: To The Ground!


Related Posts:
A Game Of Half-Truths
Just Justice
Requiem For A Frame
Take A Seat Long Read
One Score And Six
Back to top

Copyright © 2006-2026 GLYS. All Rights Reserved.