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Monday, July 11, 2022 - 22:27 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Updating The Update!


Turn 11, Action Round 3 (Team Red)


One supposes it's all out in the open now
[Transcript of "NATO as systematic challenge to world peace"]
(Source: youtube.com)


There's a small kerfuffle before this action phase, as Team Blue's chief administrator of NASA abruptly accuses China of seeking to place Influence on the moon (recalling Russia's own pledge to return). Team Red would naturally deny it, even as they reveal their next card: East European Unrest. Will they spend it on the Space Race track, to avoid granting Team Blue its beneficial effects in Eastern Europe? Decisions...

Team Red plays East European Unrest for 3 Ops, resolving the Event after Ops.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Iran (0/3). It's hardly a secret that Iran's relations with Team Blue have been in free-fall, what with informal JCPOA negotiations between themselves and the U.S. having just broken down again; but frankly, it's not like Team Blue was realistically going to get Iran on their side. Iran's membership in Team Red is only solidified by their recent application to join BRICS (currently with China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa, in about that order of significance)

Geographically, Iran happens to be a major chokepoint between the Middle East and Asia, directly guarding the approach to Afghanistan and Pakistan (and thence, India). Well, it's not like Team Blue has any boots on the ground left in the former, after their disastrous withdrawal.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Argentina (1/2). What's that, Argentina has applied to join BRICS too, with China's support? Well, given their increasing trade and currency swap deal for transacting in Yuan, this has to make economic sense; Uncle Sam won't be happy, but he hasn't been delivering the goods, so...

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Saudi Arabia (2/1). What's that, are the Saudis also looking to diversify? Although Saudi Arabia has been at loggerheads with Iran for ages, the gradual U.S. retreat from the region (probably welcome, actually) in preparation for a pivot to Asia, combined with some rather frazzled thinking from the White House on oil production, has had them ready to buy some geopolitical insurance. Oh, Team Blue can probably re-exert Control if they are of a mind to, but they seem to be under pressure from all fronts currently...

...in the form of BRICS+, the burgeoning new international grouping aligned against the establishment G7/West. To be sure, the original five-nation BRICS certainly had a weight of its own even without any additional members, containing as it does some 42% of the global population, two U.N. Security Council permanents, about a third of the world's GDP (by purchasing power parity) and food production, and maybe half of the extant stockpile of nuclear warheads.

The open competition between international cliques (as predicted in May) has seen Team Red eager to recruit new friends, especially if they can be poached from the G20 (which might be considered the G7's "minor leagues"). Seen in this light, Indonesia (note, the fourth-most populous country globally) would be a pretty big catch, with feelers reportedly already put out to others such as Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. One might imagine the UAE (a major non-NATO ally, recall) would demur, but the example of Saudi Arabia might bear some consideration.

From another perspective, BRICS+ as an anti-G7 vehicle might be seen as Team Red's attempt at reframing the Cold War II narrative; rather than some idealistic battle of "democracies versus autocracies", as Biden has been trying so hard to promote, BRICS+ against G7 lends itself to another framing: that of mostly-white imperialist Colonial Rear Guards, against a multi-ethnic coalition of scrappy up-and-coming underdogs bravely resisting Western domination. Now, I'm not saying that this story is or is not particularly convincing; just that one can very well imagine smaller countries willing to believe it, if it were in their national interest (like everyone else)

Team Blue does get to play the Event to "remove 1 Team Red Influence from three countries in Eastern Europe" after the fact, as a consolation; the region's probably not quite as significant as it was in Cold War I, but every scrap of free (net) Influence helps...

-1 Team Red Influence in Finland (4/0). NATO assures the Finns (and Sweden) of protection as their accession process begins, and given that Finland are the ones with nearly all of the Nordics' border with Russia, this should mean the most to them. Team Blue de-facto Controls Finland, as their Prime Minister attends a rock festival. Might as well.

-1 Team Red Influence in Romania (2/1). Support for Team Blue's view has been relatively sparse there, which the U.S. is addressing with a troop redeployment from Germany.

-1 Team Red Influence in Bulgaria (0/1). Team Blue certainly couldn't let Team Red's successful Coup - with the PP alliance failing to form a new government - go unanswered, which has resulted in a propaganda blitz by the Bulgarian secret service, on supposed Russian interference. Additionally, a large number of Russian diplomats have been expelled, with Russia duly reciprocating... but really, why is a "constitutionally mandated vote of no confidence" so problematic?


Turn 11, Action Round 3 (Team Blue)



(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, nypost.com)


Team Blue plays Lone Gunman for 1 Ops, resolving the Event after Ops, with DEFCON at 3. Unexpected, but if they were ever to get rid of this card, now's as good a time as any.

Former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, was publicly assassinated last Friday, having formerly led the major Team Blue power from 2006 to 2007, and again from 2012 to 2020. The deed would rightly stun the global leadership (including our PM), and soon sprout conspiracy theories about the motivations of the shooter, and possible external Influence (with the initial miss recalling JFK, the aftermath RFK, and also another prominent Abe kicking it by being shot from behind, some 157 years ago). The official tale is that the shooter wanted revenge for Abe promoting the Moonies, who had supposedly bankrupted his mother through cultivating donations - but seriously, this is like basically all the major religions out there, to some extent.

The late Abe's Liberal Democratic Party has cruised to a large majority in the Upper House elections likely in part due to the sympathy vote, and while Team Blue might be loathe to admit it, he will be a big loss to their ambitions, if only in pulling strings from behind the curtain. Abe's tenure had been marked by a revival of Japan's security potential, largely in lockstep with the previous POTUS, with whom he had by all reports a warm working relationship - extending to an unprecedented trip to New York even before his formal inauguration, and then a Nobel Peace Prize nomination. Domestically, his defining contribution would probably be "Abenomics", and a continuing (mostly unsuccessful) effort to arrest his country's declining birthrate.

One man's security is another's militaristic jingoism, however, and Abe's familial connections to the Japanese Imperial Army on top of that would win him few pals in China. Despite the customary condolences being offered, the assassination appears to have been broadly welcomed on domestic social media, with clubbers moreover arranging the more-celebratory type of memorial for the departed. I suppose everyone has the right to mourn in their own way...

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Taiwan (2/1). Despite more jiao wei at the G20 conference, it seems fairly clear that Team Blue and NATO have turned their sights squarely on the Indo-Pacific - involving Taiwan, for better or worse. Attempting actual Control here is probably a red line for China, but there's no hiding Team Blue's push for Influence with Taipei.

Event resolves for Team Red, who get to peek at Team Blue's hand: Blockade, Formosan Resolution, Quagmire and Grain Sales to Soviets. Not too many Ops there, this explains why they were willing to risk Lone Gunman prematurely. Team Red gets to play their own Ops, then:

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Laos/Cambodia (0/3). There's no protection like overprotection, and China surely won't let their ASEAN blockers - and alternate outlet to the ocean - be pried loose. Deeper cooperation has been pledged, including a high-speed rail corridor possibly also including the Battleground State of Thailand, itself looking very much swayable after a recent change in leadership. The ball's in Team Blue's court here.



Two great leaders appreciating nature, in a more peaceful time
[N.B. Also united in staunch religious observance]




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