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Sunday, Mar 20, 2022 - 01:12 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Tongues Of Conflict (Part I)

The War of Words (and Information/Propaganda) almost appears to be taking precedence over actual on-the-ground happenings over in Ukraine, despite the very roughly ten thousand dead thus far; objectively, the Western mainstream rendition seems fairly delusional (as increasingly being recognized on local forums), with most indications being that this is simply a slow war of attrition - with an air of inevitability - as good professional analysts would have marked it out to be. Seriously, was Kyiv - a fairly-fortified city of near three million - ever going to be taken in a week, by any extant military force?! Mosul (in Iraq), about a quarter the size, took nine months with coalition support against rag-tag ISIL militants, and they were brown people, so ten or twenty thousand of them could be "collateral damaged" with barely a "Save Mosul" hashtag. Not that I can blame the Ukrainians for trying to rally support (or for the chaps in bodybags to take a deserved breather)

Assuredly, two (or more) wrongs don't make a right, but the difference in perceived Western reaction between this and, say, "Iraq or Afghanistan" (as bemoaned in the French media) has opened the door to (not entirely unfounded) accusations of Europe only getting concerned due to the long-prepared proxy war hitting too close to home, by Team Red. Indeed, the local Mandarin Channel 8 media has been parroting China's (i.e. Russia's) line on Ukrainian aggression against the Donbass region as valid casus belli, and it's pretty interesting really how discordant viewpoints can get in a nominally-homogeneous population, merely from the (language of the) media they depend on; perhaps I should resume a 联合早报 subscription.

As it stands, Singapore is now on Russia's shitlist (unlike the rest of ASEAN, notably) for joining in on (largely symbolic) sanctions, but let's just say that I suspect what our leadership is far more concerned about, is the (increasingly-likely looking) unravelling of our "special" relationship with both America and China, as explained back in 2019. Bilahari Kausikan has again emphasized that the only side we're taking is our own (together with a cold-eyed expectation of eventual Russian victory in Ukraine), but really our diplomatic herding with the Western bloc on this should be down to which side our bread's buttered. It should be said that while having a mostly pro-West English media and pro-China Mandarin media was an easy way to placate both sides before, having an ideologically-split citizenry (think White House TikTok influencers against the Wumao gang) could get dicey if the twain officially divorce - which the government's fervently hoping against hope on.


Who can stop the battle?
(Source: 4pcdn.org)


On China, for all the old (not easily translatable) saw on crisis/opportunity, my reading is that they have been executing an exceedingly simple - and yet no less effective for it - stratagem: act blur. I'm not sure if it's in Sun Tzu, but this tactic is probably common knowledge amongst our conscripts (oft followed by "...[and] live longer"). Recall, the mainstream media had been all about them edging away from Russia and not being allies (technically entirely true), before belatedly realizing that this is at best a polite way of demurring without explicitly saying no (quite prevalent in Asian culture), and more likely just so much doublespeak, as they continue to send aid and fan their billion-strong ground support for Putin and Russia (extending to an EPL ban), whilst projecting neutrality.

And frankly - why shouldn't they? All China really has to do is to pay lip service to peace and respect and restraint and all the usual diplomat-speak in official statements, while just doing whatever they want to anyway. It's actually quite hilarious at how Chinese ministers, up to and including the President, have consistently reiterated that they do not want another Cold War, while accumulating "special friends" and "strategic partners" (but not "allies" or "blocs"!), in a manner perhaps best described as 此地无战冷二届; it's not like the West's (economic) elite (sellouts) are at all eager to take China on too, as Xi understands only too well, as belatedly realized by the NYT. With America beset by a POTUS of broadly-acknowledged unprecedented weakness, unpopularity and bad judgment (who's pointedly getting snubbed for Xi in brokering a solution, in stark contrast to his predecessor), it's not like the U.S. has any real leverage to induce China to choose sides, anyhow.

The Ukrainians - being far more intimately involved - have recognized what's happening, from how Chinese nationals have regrettably become targets in Kyiv (with India interestingly probably having played the third party more convincingly). And honestly, the level of sanctions being threatened by America and pals will definitely be double-edged swords, unlike the relatively-restrained tariffs proposed by their last POTUS. It'll sure feel great for the first few weeks, until possibly US$10/gallon gas (compounded by an asinine refusal to start pumping while still consuming) and US$20 basic burgers (not an exaggeration by much, all the more with Russia and Ukraine being key exporters of food) hit. Case in point, McDonald's supposed pullout appears reversed after Russia signalled a willingness to just disregard their trademark (actually long done with "DonMak").

As for a China boycott, it might be remembered that divesting oneself of the bulk of one's manufacturing has consequences (re: face masks), and if push comes to shove, I'm honestly uncertain about whether the populace of (an increasingly woke, decadent and badly indebted) Team Blue or Team Red will be able to sustain more pain (and wait, isn't this the very decoupling that globalists swore was impossible?). Sure the U.S. could try to force a Russian financial default by freezing their funds (to which Russia has countered with payment in rubles), but this doesn't do much to build faith in the fading (petro)dollar system either. From how much of an autarky Russia is (86% internal trade), this seems like it will just drive Russia to China for payment networks and the few essentials they can't produce by themselves...

[To be continued...]



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Next: Tongues Of Conflict (Part II)


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