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Friday, Sep 23, 2022 - 01:21 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

The Rules Start Getting Broken

You got your rules and your religion
All designed to keep you safe
But when rules start getting broken
You start questioning your faith

- Voices, Jim Johnston



Oh, it's on, isn't it?
(Source: gvsu.edu)


There are only too many perspectives from which the abruptly-accelerating march of history can be dissected, but for this Action Round, our keyword will be: "rules".

As the first batch of Russian protestors eager volunteers gets shipped to the Ukrainian front, their annexation referendums look set to be completed by the middle of next week; despite threats from the Ukrainian government that voting could bring jail terms of up to twelve years, I gather that there should be little doubt as to what the results will be. As popularly misattributed to a famous Georgian, it's not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes. Wouldn't put it past the Ruskies to purposely show up with bags of "mail-in ballots" at 4 a.m., which would be some power troll move.

Biden has again just repeated the official refrain that the U.S. is "not seeking a Cold War", but with even his main propaganda outlets going "This Might Not Be a Cold War, but It Feels Like One" (in the NYT) and "Welcome to the Cold War without the communism" (CNN) - and the European Council on Foreign Relations getting down to business already - this appears pure bandying semantics (without going into all the White House moonwalking of POTUS statements nowadays anyway), Well, as explained in March, one likely won't ever get an official proclamation of Cold War II - if there were a requirement, Cold War I would never have existed, but who denies that now?

In his denial of a New Cold War, the Team Blue captain is joined by Team Red leaders China, who have also consistently rejected the term - while accusing the U.S. of doublespeak (major irony alert), according to their Foreign Minister in his meeting with "old China hand" Henry Kissinger*, a few days ago. A shared motivation for not being seen as the one to (re)start the Cold War is, of course, to not be seen as the instigator (or: 先撩者賤,打死無怨); Russia were not skilled enough to avoid that trap in the Ukraine war, but as Pelosi's blunder in Taiwan demonstrates, Team Blue are hardly immune to such perceptions.

China does have another very good reason to avoid open Cold War if possible, however - their window of strength is opening, which means that in an "above-board" and mostly-peaceful contest for Influence, they have a certain confidence of prevailing. It should be noted that the endgame in Twilight Struggle: New Moon is asymmetrical for the teams: while Team Blue has to defend de-facto U.S. unipolarity and global world order, Team Red merely has to dissolve said order into multipolarity (and carve out suitable recognized spheres of influence, for their big players), to account it a win.


Look at us, we New World Order now!
(Source: nikkei.com)


As predicted in May, the undermining of Old World Order institutions such as the United Nations is being expedited under (barely) plausible deniability, with the SCO, BRICS+ and GSI/GDI all busily expanding. If it continues at this rate, it's hardly unthinkable that Team Blue-dominated currently-preminent institutions of the current "rules-based international order" such as the U.N., World Bank, IMF etc. get hollowed out and rendered impotent, as states silently migrate to equivalent Team Red outfits that offer better deals. Or, 反客为主.

Frankly, the common Team Blue accusation of China being against a rules-based order was never well-founded, to those with any acquaintance of the history of Chinese civilization. If anything, China has feared chaos - and loved order - over almost any other threat (唯恐天下[大]乱), and one can't plausibly accuse them of not having enough rules either (re: Chinese legalism/Confucianism). No, China's issue with the current rules-based order was always and only this: who's the boss? Or, in greater detail:

  • Who writes the rules? Control of the relevant international organizations (e.g. the U.N.) affords great latitude to Influence what rules get entered into the rulebook. Despite surface appearances of "democracy of nations", there's no real hiding that being able to pack committees, install your people in the right places etc. can sway the wording of a lot of rules, including if they even get put up for consideration in the first place

  • Who interprets the rules? Most rules are only written once, and as such Control of their interpretation is perhaps even more important than their initial drafting. An example from local politics that I never get tired of recounting, is from a 1997 election that had prominent persons from the incumbent party park themselves inside polling stations, despite laws against loitering within 200 metres of said station. Extend this to the Nine-Dash Line and Iraq etc., and there we have it

  • Who enforces the rules? And, at the top of the pyramid, it returns to sheer blunt force, and the ability/willingness to wield it. We are currently witnessing it with Russia as Team Red's enforcer, but Team America's unashamed support of the Hague Invasion Act if the International Criminal Court (wait, aren't they part of the rules-based order??) dares indict any of their guys, remains the greatest illustration of the point

Well, many countries look set to be confronted by different - and possibly contradictory - sets of "rules" and "orders" in the near future; better double-check the colour of those rulebooks, then.

[*Kissinger having recently admitted that to the best of his knowledge, the U.S. administration has no concept of how their bust-up with Russia and China is going to end or what it is leading to - unlike the last admin's solid boxing-in stance and masterful diplomacy in the Middle East - which should rightly scare the hell of anyone with any knowledge of realgeopolitik. Whatever one thinks of his manipulations, Kissinger has repeatedly proven his effectiveness and insight on foreign policy (as acknowledged by LKY himself), and if QEII's passing didn't end the previous era, Kissinger's surely will.]


Turn 12, Action Round 1 (Team Blue)


(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, scmp.com)


Team Blue returns to the fray, but it's not immediately clear if they appreciate the enormity of the challenge that faces them. Team Red's sending of Kremlin Flu to space in the previous Action Phase has given them the rare opportunity to set the pace at least, and they play De-Stalinization for 3 Ops, resolving the Event after Ops. The concrete U.S. response to Russia's doubling-down may well set the tone for the new era, but a big problem is that the populace really doesn't care that much about Cold War II just yet, especially when it comes to foreign deployments. Heck, barely a third can even find Ukraine on a map as it stands, though it could be worse. One imagines a Texan patriot yee-hawing to enlist with his six-shooters upon learning that Georgia had been invaded ("let's get those Commies!"), only to learn that it was the European Georgia ("sounds like not my problem, g'day sir.")

1 Ops: +1 Influence in the Philippines (3/2). The Pacific is where the action is nowadays, and the U.S. has gotten new President Marcos Jr. to ring the bell at the NYSE, alongside a reaffirmation of their mutual alliance. Probably as good as Team Blue is going to get for now.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Jordan (2/0). With their general withdrawal from the Middle East leaving a vacuum that Team Red is already salivating over - from how Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar have already applied to join the Shanghai Pact - it's imperative for Team Blue to try and hold some airbases friends in the region. An outsized US$10 billion commitment to Jordan might just do the trick, as they assert Control.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Taiwan (3/1). Team Blue looks like they're done hiding their intentions with a US$1.1 billion arms deal announced at the beginning of the month, with yet another vow from POTUS to defend the island militarily if need be. Blockade/"quarantine" scenarios are surely being closely studied by both the U.S. and China, as the clock ticks down...

Event resolves for Team Red, who get to move up to four Influence, as Putin/Xi look set to adopt the mantle of the Khrushchev/Mao tag-team, in this retro return to The Greatest Game. While this does not add any net Influence to the board, let's just say that "war is won by positioning".

1 Ops: +1 Influence in France (3/2) from Germany (now 6/0). France-Germany remains the main play axis of the European polity, and it's simply true that the Gauls have never been that huge fans of the Yanks, who they (not entirely wrongly) regard as having usurped their place as the kingpins of Europe, deep down. China has obtained French opposition to a New Cold War, as Team Red shuffles their priorities on the continent.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in South Korea (3/2) from Japan (now 5/1). Likewise, there's generally room to exploit historical grudges on the eastern front, and getting both these squabblers on the same Team is no easy task. With the U.S. remaining largely intransigent on trade, it's difficult to blame the Koreans from looking the other way, once in a while.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in India (3/3) from Syria (now 3/2). While much has been made in the Team Blue propaganda of India holding military drills with the U.S. on their Chinese border, somewhat less has been made of their joining Russia and China in the Vostok-2022 exercises. It's not looking like Team Blue are going to get India on their side here, as India get to act as they have consistently declared: nonalignment.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Hungary (1/3) from Turkey (now 3/2). Team Red lays further claim to Hungary as their foothold in the E.U., with Orban praising Russia amidst a funding cut from the Union. Meanwhile, Erdogan continues doing what he does best, in demanding Putin return Crimea to the Ukraine. That should be worth an aid package or two, right?



All you judges you are guilty/All the bosses I will fire/
All you bankers will have losses/Politicians are all liars





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