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Sunday, Mar 27, 2022 - 02:48 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Tongues Of Conflict (Part III)


They *stole* our gimmick, dagnabbit!
(Source: thesportster.com)


As the first month of the Ukraine crisis rolls around, it's looking like there won't be a clean conclusion anytime soon. Meanwhile, the not-so-subtle pro-China bias of our Mandarin media might perhaps have contributed to one of our Senior Ministers inviting the editor-in-chief of the Chinese Media Group at SPH to lim kopi (informally, it goes without saying), not that I would expect such leanings to vanish, with Zaobao for example just broadcasting the Russian Foreign Ministry's warning that Beijing is America's next target. Then again, China seems to have unfailingly sung the same tune on American and NATO provocation as well as their solid relationship with Russia - in both English and their original Mandarin statements - so I am frankly unsure about where all the Anglo media's (read: FAKE NEWS) earlier declarations of China supposedly having a dilemma and rethinking their support, were coming from.

It's been much the same with India, a proud and ancient nation with a strong self-image, who seem to be feeling shortchanged about the risk-benefit calculus of Quad membership, alongside Western hypocrisy in interpreting their abstentions. And really, if you're about a sixth of the world population, why would you easily accept a de facto subordinate role? This has gotten as far as former colonial masters Great Britain (now America's errand boy) having their delegation BTFO-ed and told not to return by Delhi, with India instead welcoming... China's foreign minister. Then again, with the Anglos now supposedly open with their aim of extending the conflict to bleed Russia, and the new POTUS being only too willing to have Europe pay the price of sanctioning Russian gas, it's not hard to comprehend why so many countries are currently hesitant to commit to either side/bloc, with Germany and Switzerland trying to wriggle out of their commitments already (ahem ahem)

Biden has just acknowledged a New World Order for one (as raised in this blog in January), and if that's too much Illuminati-type conspiracy thinking for your fancy, "end of post-Cold War era/new era" as admitted by our Foreign Minister, might do it too. In his defence, Biden did recognize the danger of imminent food shortages, the burden of which will fall on the poor, as always - reminding also of the limitations of sanctions on fungible goods. However, his puttering about the region honestly does not seem to be inspiring much confidence even on Reddit, and it may be telling that news on his planned visit to Singapore attracted but two dismissive (if heavily downdooted) comments, and nothing positive. Back in Europe, Macron's been slapping down BoJo's advancement of Zelensky's request for 1% of NATO's planes/tanks, which seems a pretty transparent attempt to stir the Continental pot, by Perfidious Albion; if this is the West winning, it'll be a sight when and if they lose.



[English translation; also a hit in China, reciprocated.
The choice of this song for Putin's Antifa rally is probably not incidental, what with the singer formerly placed second in Eurovision, and the tune itself from Battle for Sevastopol, a joint Russian-Ukrainian effort about the Red Army battling Nazis in World War II. It might also be noted that China's Battle at Lake Changjin flicks are the second and top-grossing films of 2021 and 2022 (thus far) respectively, a sign of the West's decline in soft power. Вот так.]


Sure, the Alliance of Democracies set can silently censor inconvenient views on YouTube and Facebook and Google etc., I suppose, and the Gold Roast coffee at our ministries and police stations may be fragrant, but let's just say that in my experience, a lot of uncles and aunties are going straight to the source (i.e. CCTV) anyway, with cultural movers 4chan filtering into EDMW to boot. Still, with America claiming that they "do not want a [new] Cold War" while raising AUKUS and the Quad - without going into other "allied action" initiatives - one can hardly blame China too much in their mirroring the pragmatics (i.e. two can play at the same game), in not reconciling action to words. One rather expects China to redouble on buying influence/pals (as currently being executed with the Solomon Islands, and which they can definitely afford) in the wake of this invasion, given how particularly duplicitous it would then look were Uncle Sam to try and coup/colour revolution their way out of it per usual - at least until the gloves truly come off.

But how will Cold War II officially begin? The acknowledgements just keep coming in, from Korea to Greece, India to Europe, with the WSJ already bracing for Russia and China together, and the BBC sweating on the Atlantic flank. However, if one were to expect Biden and Xi to meet in Monaco or Bern (or hey, Singapore), have a photo-op and handshake and exchange of folios before the confetti's released and 999 red balloons come tumbling down from the ceiling... he'd be waiting for a long time. For this, we might look back to the original Cold War I, which seems to have never been actually declared by either party. The etymology - in its currently-recognized sense - has been traced to an Orwell essay in 1945, with Kennan's X Article/Long Telegram the next year oft recognized as setting the parameters, and Truman's declaration of what would become known as his doctrine in March 1947 said to be another possible beginning... from the Western end, at least.

But these are all definitions very much in retrospect, of course. Assuredly it could be "sharper and shorter", more likely also lasting, almost certainly not quite the same as the previous edition (but few quibble about such minutiae for the World Wars); however, as with other vulgarities, it shouldn't be hard to recognize when one sees it. A Wall Street Journal commentator has, for one, rung the opening bell with former VP Mike Pence's October 2018 speech denouncing the CCP approach; it remains to be seen if this opinion will stand the test of time. In this, then, we fall back on empirics. What say Google Trends?


Did I hook it up to the wrong device?!
(Source: trends.google.com)


Well, this is... inexplicibly periodic. Sure, China has (not totally non-suspiciously) put out a "Cold War 2" movie in 2016 (interestingly with 寒戰 as the Mandarin title, instead of 冷戰, the standard translation for the geopolitical event), but one still struggles to account for the strange pattern on display here. The printed word might be more forthright, then:


Return To Normality
(Source: books.google.com)
[N.B. Surprisingly, "Kyiv" doesn't seem all that favoured over "Kiev" generally, although our media has gotten on that bandwagon. The country-level breakdowns might be illuminating, for interested readers.]


Here, we have references to a future Cold War hitting a low about 2005, it seems, which some analysts have recognized as about when globalization peaked. Supposedly, cross-border financial flows maxed out around 2007 - right before the big crash - which would put about 2005 as when the American-led International Liberal Order was at a high, just over a decade into being undisputed global hegemon after Cold War I, and with the warm glow of Operation Petroleum Freedom and Subprime Mortgage Riches still ripe for the basking. It's been a straight line up since then, though, and the gears sure seem to be turning the other way for globohomo, which has to be a concern for us truly. Wish us luck, then.



They say the lyrics are better in the original...




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Next: Blasts From The Past


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In For A ₽enny, In For The ₽ound
Wuhan Clan Interruption
Tongues Of Conflict (Part I)
World Of Vaccines
How Cold This War (Prelude)
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