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Saturday, May 28, 2022 - 02:21 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Letters To The Imperators


Who's in, who's out
(Original source: zerohedge.com)


So the U.S.-initiated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) has been officially launched - a couple of days after our last post - with the thirteen countries above having signed up... and some notable exclusions. China, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are out, despite the latter three being very much part of the Indo-Pacific and ASEAN, which has to be very far from a surprise, from how the Red vs. Blue blocs are being split.

Biden has been shoring up the Asian front with his support for Japan to be raised to the U.N. Security Council and concurrent wooing of South Korea, but by far the biggest splash made had to be from his statement that the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily were it to be invaded by China, a historic abandonment of strategic ambiguity that would apparently be walked back - but let's just say that not everyone's buying that "accident". China definitely doesn't seem to be, what with the Taiwanese foreign minister hinting at "cooperation" with NATO, the NYT previously asking if Taiwan is next, Foreign Affairs warning that a cross-straits invasion might go nuclear, that after the WSJ suggesting that the U.S. should show it can win a nuclear war. Well, as our wise PM has commented, the only way to win that game, is not to play (anywhere nearby us, at least)

The Taiwan not-so-throwaway comments have had China take their sabre-ratting up a notch or two, with new military drills just announced in the vicinity - not that they've not already upped joint exercises with Russia near Japan and South Korea. Indeed, this reunion of the two Eurasian giants feels only too natural, with Russia having exactly what China lacks (energy, food, some tech), and vice-versa (population, raw economic heft). It's looking unlikely that China can be "deterred" in the same manner as Russia, who can't afford not winning in Ukraine, as Uncle Sam appears to have realized only recently (as explained here at the beginning of March). As it is, Russia's defence minister has reiterated that they are in it to the bitter end, which given entirely-unrealistic preconditions on "reclaiming all territories" including Crimea from the Ukrainian side, might be a long time in coming*.

[*Kissinger had been angrily rebuffed for recognizing much the same and suggesting that Ukraine would need to concede some fait accomplis; interestingly, Zelensky appears to have just come around to accepting reality somewhat.]


New divides forming and solidifying...
(Source: mangakakalot.com)


Whatever the fate of Ukraine, it remains that the post-Cold War I liberal international order (LIO) has been shaken to its core, with the hottest issue now perhaps how the LIO's de-facto enforcement arm - NATO - will be contested. Both Russia and China have come out strongly against the previously-moribund alliance, who for its part has increasingly not bothered to hide its alignment against the two, even in matters seemingly far outside its original remit - such as the United Kingdom's placing Taiwan under the NATO umbrella. China's Global Security/Development Initiative doesn't seem a flash in the pan with them incessantly hawking it to "replace Cold War mentality" (and one supposes, old Cold War alliances and rules), alongside bashing supposed NATO atrocities, replacing foreign computers, and seemingly going on a war footing.

They've hardly been shy about extending their strategic reach in the Pacific while decrying NATO-like groupings, mind, with the successful-so-far Solomon Islands gambit swiftly followed by expanded outreach to numerous other island nations such as Kiribati, which has ironically had Australia and other U.S. allies now up in arms at this counter-encirclement. However, as again noted in March, this might be recognized as a fork move, in the context of the Ukraine war; after all the chest-thumping about immutable sovereignty and democracy, any military action or (exposed) subterfuge towards preventing such small states from being bought into the Red camp by their own free will, would have to look especially hypocritical.

Returning to the IPEF, this can only be taken as an overt move to build an Alliance of Democracies-friendly organization in the region (conveniently excluding China and recognized proxies), which one expects to see a lot more of in the future; in other words, the trend in this new era would be towards the abandonment/undermining of wider global organizations (e.g. the United Nations), with the various blocs concentrating more and more of their rewards within their exclusive "friend groups" (consider the unceremonial withdrawal of support for ASEAN, from last week). Get ready, then, for a proliferation of "alphabet soup" bodies (as in boxing), with various international cliques openly competing for legitimacy and influence.


Big names, but possibly worth less than as written
[N.B. For FATSO, possibly read SEATO]
(Source: mangakakalot.com)


However, one expects many such alphabet organizations to be realized to be somewhat empty - the IPEF, for example, has been recognized to not even include any plans for tariff reduction or market access, and New Zealand's appeal for the U.S. to return to the CPTPP looks pretty unlikely to happen, seeing as they sat out of it largely due to being unwilling to yield economic concessions (medals) in the first place. Considering how the CPTPP in its current form doesn't have anybody significant willing to play the role of consumer/trade deficit sucker, however, its reach remains to be seen.

What can be safely said is that "the West" appears unlikely to be able to assemble a coterie of extras on the cheap, as Cold War II begins in earnest. Pleas and propaganda towards morality are having little effect, with India for example having recognized that they were being positioned as the Anglos' crash test dummy in Asia, resulting in the Quad (technically another of those speculative alphabet orgs) all but stalling. This has had Uncle Sam try to entice India with an extra US$4 billion just last week, but one expects India to demur until these shiny medals are safely in their pocket, their own regional ambitions aside.

Much the same goes for the Americans' self-proclaimed backyard of Latin America, with heavyweights in that region signalling their intent to remain neutral in Cold War II (insert money-rubbing gesture), and going as far as to slam America for directing aid to Ukraine over themselves, and joining China/Russia in holding NATO at least partially responsible for the invasion. Seeing as how the Anglo faction has hardly been fully-aligned with continental Europeans (as demonstrated in the Aussie submarine deal debacle), and how the West has been riven by their own internal conflicts, it remains to be seen as to how generous they will be in recruiting extras...

[To be continued...]



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