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Sunday, Feb 05, 2023 - 01:08 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

The First Of The Balloons

It's happening, folks! U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has cancelled his visit to Beijing due to a (Team Red) assumed-spy balloon drifting over their nuclear missile silos, with similar ones supposedly also spotted flying across Japan and India at least. We're not sure if there are indeed 99 or more of these menacing Strategic High-altitude Inflatable Threats floating about, but the Chinese side has reassured their American counterparts that they are merely meteorological research drones (and your air defence sucks), so perhaps something might have been lost in mistranslation in between. The Americans have laid off trying to shoot said balloon down - for now at least - and it might be noted that eager gun-slinging was how nuclear apocalypse began, in 99 Luftballons.

Balloons do have a storied history in Cold War I, it goes without saying, but it's not quite the turn for their card to make an appearance yet. We have got several months of The Greatest Game action to catch up on since the last relevant entry in mid-October, after all, and things have to happen in their proper order. Rewinding to October 2022, we apprehend the five-yearly congress, of the ruling party of the most populous nation on Earth, and their enthronement of one man:


Turn 12, Action Round 4 (Team Red)


Some phonetic reinterpretation to be expected in China
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, thoughtco.com,
pixabay.com, freepik.com, theatlantic.com)


A single sibilant syllable returns to strike terror - or at least genuine concern - amongst the neoliberal capitalist globohomo set, in a way that past Team Blue boogeymen such as Lenin, Stalin, Tito, Saddam, Osama etc. never quite did. When was the last time you saw a hippie wearing a Gaddafi (Kaddafi? Qadhafi?) Hanes T-shirt, anyway? No, what they needed was an iconic name, a cult of personality, and no compunctions about ruthlessly clearing out all opposition (alas, Hu, we knew ye) - and there we have Che/Xi.

While the CCP might be opaque to outsiders, one supposes there had to be little surprise when Xi clinched an unprecedented third term as China's latest helmsman, and he would duly pack the leadership ranks with loyalists supporting tighter control of the country - dare I say, as they enter a (Cold) war footing. If the few remaining U.S. diplomatic doves were hoping for a return to the old status-quo consensus, they would have to be disillusioned by Xi's speech to the CCP. In it, the party's strategic resolve against external threats was emphasized, including overseas deployment of troops - which, one realizes, has been America's quasi-monopoly thus far.

Oh, there were the domestic protests, certainly (later also due to the draconian lockdowns), but it was not like those were ever going to have a real impact. Some have gotten out while they could (including to Singapore, which has again sparked concerns about flooding of the property market), but the vast majority remain bound to The Greatest Game, whatever the pundits say about their chances...

Team Red plays Che/Xi for its Event.

Coup!: -1 Team Blue Influence in Cuba (now 0/3). Paying tribute is entrenched in Chinese cultural memory, and here we have Team Red reclaiming Cuba - and perhaps not even all that against international opinion, with there being an overwhelming vote in the United Nations against the U.S. embargo of the island. China's no-limits (and maybe beyond) agreement with Russia has stood strong despite the latter getting bogged down in Ukraine, and their one-two Influence Ops punches have been pretty effective in previous rounds.

John Bolton races up to the table, ready to Coup Putin out of Russia... wait, it's not even his Team's turn now? He gets escorted off by security, but you got to give it to him, that's enthusiasm! Xi rolls a four, which when added to his card's Ops value of three, easily boots Team Blue out of Cuba. In fact, it was Putin who got there first by honouring Fidel Castro together with the Cuban president, before Xi followed by pledging mutual support over Team Red's core interests. Definitely, it would have been less risky to simply place Influence here, but shutting Uncle Sam out of this perennial thorn in their southern seaboard made it worth it.

But wait, a Team Blue functionary objects, doesn't the Event state "non-battleground country", which Cuba assuredly is not? Team Red appears to have anticipated this line of attack, however, and sends out a group of trans female indigenous minority delegates loudly accusing Team Blue of misidentifying and colonial-naming the country. It's Super Effective! The Team Blue representative slinks away defeated, and a giggling Team Red contingent announces the follow-up:

Coup!: -3 Team Blue Influence in Germany (now 3/0).

There is an absolute uproar, ladies and gentlemen, as the entire Team Blue party gets to their feet in protest - isn't Germany's Stability 4? How is it possible to lose 3 Influence then, with a 3 Ops card?! Team Red's special operatives counter that East Germany has only 3 Stability, and isn't it just like the white people to insist that the West is superior... oh, that has Team Blue waving the flag in defeat again, as Xi triumphantly shows off his roll of six... wait, did anyone actually watch him throw the dice?

There's no denying France-Germany being the main European axis that matters - with Germany the cornerstone - as raised last September, and not all is well on this front. While the Anglo media has presented the pan-European institutions of NATO and the E.U. as being united against China and Russia, the reality is that they are hardly as close as claimed. The E.U.'s much-ballyhooed alternative to China's Belt and Road has barely delivered despite astronomical figures being touted, for one, but perhaps more importantly, there appear significant doubts as to whether Uncle Sam can continue delivering prosperity, as he did through Cold War I.

For all the P.R. about the departure of Bad Orange Man, it could hardly have been missed by America's European friends that Biden had largely continued - and in some cases, expanded on - his predecessor's trade controls. The naming of the "Inflation Reduction Act" fooled no one, to begin with, with the European Commission quickly recognizing that it was mostly cover for good old protectionism, and the transfer of (critical) European industry back home. This would lead to open complaints from E.U. officials on American war-profiteering and forcing of energy dependance on the continent, replacing Europe's previous triangulation strategy of relying on the Russians for (cheap) energy, the Chinese for (huge, given that the average Chinese adult is now richer than the average European, for those not paying attention) markets, and the Yanks for security - which had worked out well for them.

It was in this environment, then, that the unthinkable (to the U.S., at least) happened: barely weeks after Xi's coronation, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz would visit Beijing in a clear effort to ingratiate himself, unmistakably thumbing his nose at Biden and company in the process. Worse, Macron would join in by calling on Europe to reduce their dependence on U.S. security, which together with wanting continued economic ties with China after Washington's ejection of Huawei, had to be music to Xi's ears. Europe remains very much in play, it seems, as the new twilight struggle continues...



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