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Thursday, Apr 06, 2023 - 00:28 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

There Are No Strings On Me

The arm-twisting of Kennedy School grads* thereof as posited in mid-February seems to have gotten off to a start, with our PM's summoning to Xi's Boao Forum statement-making platform having resulted in the outgoing PM's elevation of bilateral ties including on free trade, after a discussion (together with Malaysia's Anwar) on "Asian independence" and the rejection of "Cold War bloc-style conflict". With three of ASEAN's ten members arguably clearly under their thumb already, but Indonesia (1/2) too large to press this way, Vietnam (2/2) being complicated, Thailand (2/1) studiously neutral-Blue and the Philippines (4/2) swinging back to their old colonial masters the U.S., "inviting" two of the smaller remaining states over to make some positions public as Cold War II builds, made a lot of sense.

[*I do admit not having particular familiarity as to their current sartorial preferences, which should not detract from the main thrust towards the choices and consequences now presented.]


Turn 13, Action Round 5 (Team Red)

Team Red sends Puppet Governments to space.


Yes, my little friend, this is how it's going down...
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, japantimes.co.jp, wsj.com, cnn.com)


Mark my words, the wheels have been set in motion. Now, one could believe that largely-unrelated countries worldwide making moves to drop the dollar (i.e. de-dollarization, from Feb 12) all at once is just a big coincidence; but with ASEAN going for a cross-border digital payment system in local currencies looking to bypass SWIFT and similar Team Blue monetary Control mechanisms (if probably unlikely to heavily affect the dollar itself... for now), Malaysia taking India up on their offer of rupee settlement, fellow BRICS nations developing a new international currency with the leftist Lula indeed ditching the U.S. dollar in cosying up with Xi (as also previewed Feb 12), the Global South seems to be making their displeasure at U.S. money-printing (and accompanying stat-tweaking) known.

This further extends to those that the U.S. has tended to consider as allies, indicating that while they might follow America's lead in certain issues of security, it may well be open season on commerce and finance. France's assessment of 4/3 Influence looks spot-on as they complete their first energy trade in yuan, for UAE natural gas. Saudi Arabia (3/4) appears peeling off from Team Blue too - not helped by the conclusion of their mutually-beneficial relationship with the previous U.S. admin - as they sign up for the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in an Eurasian shift. And as for Japan, they're gonna buy Russian oil at a price higher than the US$60 cap, because losing a major source of energy - and thence vital industry - bloody hurts.

With the Cold War II battlefield expanding to various domains - military (Ukraine, Taiwan), technical (microchips, AI, space), financial (over the global reserve currency, sanction power) and commercial (trade agreements, import/export restrictions), the main players are certainly out to gather some flunkeys - the indispensible accessory for the season, in The Greatest Game! Whether to act as blockers in various international organizations, or to offer themselves as sites for proxy wars, or as hosts for military bases and other installations, it is definitely very nice to have some Puppet Governments peppered throughout - all the more with plausible deniability.

Team Red's roll is high again, however, as they hit a five with 1 to 4 required to advance. Australia is next to ban TikTok - if from government devices - with the U.S. now gunning for China's quantum computing chops, after getting Japan on board the chip ban. The TikTok-killing RESTRICT Act has also been tabled, but the broadness of the bill has raised concerns that it might turn out to be the American version of China's Great Firewall. Build The Wall, I suppose!



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