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Sunday, Feb 12, 2023 - 22:09 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Turn Twelve Ends

I suppose we might as well call an end to this chapter of Twilight Struggle: New Moon - with Action Round 6 encompassing roughly the period from December 2022 to January 2023 - such that we can return to the present day soon with Turn Thirteen.


Hol up, is this even real?
(Original source: politico.eu)


There might be a quick comment on the Ukrainian tank supply situation (as referenced with Arms Race, in the previous post). After a lot of to-and-froing about who will send the first tanks, with Berlin initially holding out until America makes the first move, and Poland making a show of chomping at the bit without actually submitting an official request, Germany has finally stamped the boot down with an initial delivery of 14, with an eventual goal of 88 tanks... to instant incredulity from knowledgeable netizens about the symbolism inherent in those numbers. Now, this might be trolling at Russia's largely (if not entirely) outlandish casus belli of eliminating Neo-Nazi Influence from Ukraine - but if so, it remains a bit edgy for Jerry, I say. Others have noted that 88 tanks isn't even that much in the greater scheme, so it's probably up to Uncle Sam here.


Turn 12, Action Round 6 (Team Red)

Team Red plays US/Japan Mutual Defense Pact for 4 Ops, resolving the Event after Ops.


Anime futures up 200%!
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, scmp.com)


China's (quite often successful) diplomatic forays into the Global South, and (South) Asia in particular, has unavoidably drawn Japan deeper into the American/Team Blue orbit - and with Japanese cooperation with Italy now extending to joint fighter jet development, and Germany (grudgingly?) upping their involvement in Ukraine, it looks like the gang might be getting back together, after all!

But before we get into the U.S.-Japan cuddlefest, there's updating Team Red progress on the Influence scoreboard:

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Saudi Arabia (3/3). The Middle East is looking decidely dicey for Team Blue, with every sign that the Saudis are open to diversification - and the (petro)yuan - in their oil kingdom. The lavish welcome that MBS held for Xi was a stark contrast to what they laid out for Ol' Joe before, and the conclusion of Xi's trip in mid-December would be described as a historic and strategic economic partnership, and possibly even an "overthrow of Atlanticism".

On the surface of it, such an arrangement has some admittedly considerable attractions for the Sauds; rather than endure Team Blue heckling about their culture (a.k.a human rights abuses) and possibly a future shutout from the energy market out of green concerns, China is offering a very simple deal: you send me oil, I send you yuan, then you can use the yuan to buy stuff from me, without worrying that somebody (ahem, America) will confiscate your monies for some excuse or other (ref. Venezuela despite Guaido no longer being recognized by the E.U., Iran, Russia etc.) - and I don't care what you do at home.

This is of course just one of the prongs of the ongoing currency war aimed at eventually dethroning the U.S. greenback - which however is an update for another day. What might be projected is that Team Blue had better hope that the previous U.S. admin's wise Abraham Accords initiative finds wider purchase in the region, since if the Sauds and Iran (who do seem a little miffed at the Chinese approach) eventually come to an understanding (aided by an apparent end to the Yemeni civil war in which they are opposing belligerents), it could be a rather lonely Israel flying the Blue flag in the Middle East...

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Brazil (1/2). Lula might have been returned to the Presidency, but the American ruling class might yet come to rue the departure of the (far?) right Bolsonaro, who is currently enjoying a vacation in balmy Florida. An unfortunate habit of left-leaning Latin American governments has been their penchant for gravitating towards Team Red, which has seen many of them getting "accidentally" Couped in past decades. And indeed, Lula appears to be reaching out to China, in contrast to Bolsonaro's oft anti-Beijing rhetoric. Not only that, the BRICS headliner has been discussing a common currency together with Argentina, the latter of whom have of course already formalized a currency swap deal with China.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Pakistan (2/2). Both China and Russia have been coming on strong here, with Putin now viewing Pakistan as a priority partner (though probably to the detriment of their relationship with India), with cheap formerly Europe-bound oil on offer. China have of course long been engaged with the Pakistanis (to the extent of their petroleum facilities there getting exploded), and with Imran Khan doubling down on holding the CIA responsible for his ouster, it's looking as if Team Blue might not be able to count on their former South Asia bulwark, in the brewing Cold War II realignment.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Vietnam (2/2). Southeast Asia gets some attention too, with Xi hailing Vietnam as an ally - and with a communist party reigning in Vietnam, a drift towards Team Red in the absence of countervailing incentives feels only natural. While it remains true that Vietnam alongside other (mostly-south) Asian nations are concerned about China's ambitions, it might be noted that their counter-strategy is being described as multipolarity rather than bandwagoning with Team Blue/Team America - which as noted last September, can basically be considered as a Team Red win condition anyway.

In light of all this, Team Blue core players America and Japan make their move, reaffirming the two nations' 1951 treaty that had defined the East Asian security calculus hence. For arguably the first time since then, however, this includes an overt remilitarization of Japan - including the potential U.S. deployment of medium-range missles - which had previously been taboo. Their joint statement against "force or coercion anywhere in the world", as well as Japan binding themselves yet more deeply into the Team Blue tapestry with a U.K. defence pact and possible admission to AUKUS, has had China seething.

Still, 4 Ops in return for diplomatic restrictions in a country that they were never likely to take [i.e. Japan (5/1)] remains a great deal for Team Red, who wait now for Turn 13 to begin.


Turn 12, Action Round 6 (Team Blue)

Team Blue plays Junta for its Event.

America is hardly going to allow Team Red's incursions into their banana republic basket-cases backyard to go unanswered, which calls for the traditional response.


Just South American "democracy" treading its usual path
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, theglobepost.com)


Nothing very special here, really, and it's not even that personal - Team Blue just needs another go at the Required Military Operations track for this Turn, and frankly South America should be used to this by now.

2 Ops: +2 Influence in Bolivia (3/1). Camacho's arrest has set off protests in the country, which had already endured a Team Blue (i.e. U.S.) Coup political crisis in 2019, right before this edition of Twilight Struggle started. For once, this looks to be going quite well for Team Blue interests, and if all goes well we could be seeing a very acceptable revolution occuring soon...

Coup! (2 Ops): +3 Influence in Peru (now 2/0). A nice burly fellow in black suit, earpiece and sunglasses walks up to the table, places a dice with its "5" face upwards, and walks away without a word. Are you gonna say anything? Yeah, thought so.

In entirely unrelated news, Peru's government had been Couped kindly made way for a more U.S.-friendly administration, which they should have done from the outset and saved everybody the trouble. That their U.S. ambassador, who just so happened to be a former CIA agent, met with their defence minister right before the elected left-wing President was overthrown went on holiday, obviously had nothing to do with anything, you stinky Russian/Chinese apologist! The emergency military rule in the aftermath is just to preserve democracy, and if U.S. troops are required to maintain order, America stands happy to oblige.


End of Turn 12, Cleanup Phase

There's been easily enough Required Military Operations from Coups for both Teams to satisfy the requirements with DEFCON lingering at 2, with neither having the lead in VP after uniformly deciding to play for position rather than cash in, whenever the opportunity presented itself. This does make a lot of sense, from how Cold War II currently looks to be a drawn-out affair, from our vantage point over here in Singapore.

As the participants file out for refreshments, pundits in the audience are tallying up the cards and Ops played thus far:

TurnRoundTeam RedTeam Blue
11H32
11143
11234
11331
11422
11542
11621
Playable Ops1813
12H32
12123
12231
12332
12432
12531
12642
Playable Ops1811

Team Red appears to have had the luck of the draw for Ops in hand thus far, with their 18 playable Ops per Turn slightly above the expected average. Team Blue in contrast is lagging a little - but perhaps they are holding something in reserve? In Twilight Struggle: New Moon, little is ever as it seems...


The stars - you should count them too!
[N.B. Hint: no counting dollars, due to de-dollarization]




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