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Sunday, Mar 12, 2023 - 17:12 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Brics & Blocs Solidifying

纷纷世事无穷尽
天数茫茫不可逃
鼎足三分已成梦
后人凭吊空牢骚

- 出自 《三国演义》, 借评当世三帮之势


Today's Twilight Struggle: New Moon update sees our trusty lunar satellite wax vaguely crescent, as a multipolar world very much resembling Cold War I's Team Red, Team Blue and Team Grey (Third World/Nonaligned), continues taking shape - and getting recognized. As it stands, it's looking like history will remember this as but yet another achingly-stereotypical example of the reigning hegemon succumbing to hubris and decadence, with their aristocratic/intellectual elite in denial over the cause of their decline; one does tend to believe the (state) progaganda if it constantly sings one's praises, even if (New) Rome burns all around oneself, after all.

Nominal Team Blue leaders the U.S. of A has belatedly made some moves to put their house in order to prepare for the oncoming struggle, with previously-undisclosed video evidence of the Jan 6 insurrection hoax now confirming that the Capitol police had willingly escorted a shaman on a slow walk through the building, after unlocking doors for the fur-clad tourist. The coronavirus lab-leak theory, once sufficient to have one tarred and feathered and banned from establishment FAKE NEWS social media sites such as old Twitter, has also just been assessed to be the most likely source of the pandemic by the domestic Energy Department and the FBI. Given the context, however, it is difficult to interpret the timing of the accusation as anything other than another pretext for (Cold) war against China; but needs must, and this coda to The Pandemic Game is probably the correct strategic move for Team Blue here.

A more in-depth post-mortem of the full inglorious Pandemic Game will be deferred, though, as we continue with the business of The Greatest Game... with a Chinese, an Arab and a Persian walking into something other than a bar:


Turn 13, Action Round 2 (Team Red)

Team Red plays Muslim Revolution* for 3 Ops.


The Ah Tiong-ian Accords
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, ft.com)


3 Ops: +1 Influence in Saudi Arabia (3/4), +1 Influence in Iran (1/4), +1 Influence in Gulf States (3/3).

Yet another of our predictions has come true in short order, namely the analysis on February 12 that "...if the Sauds and Iran eventually come to an understanding (aided by an apparent end to the Yemeni civil war in which they are opposing belligerents), it could be a rather lonely Israel flying the Blue flag in the Middle East". On this, the latest news is that Xi (freshly re-elected as President for an unprecedented third term, in an impressive 2,952-0 vote) has just brokered a deal for Saudi Arabia and Iran to re-establish diplomatic relations, after four days of secret talks in Beijing.

To be frank, this was a little quicker than I had expected (though the relevant card had already been teased in the U2 Incident update), to which it might be grudgingly recognized that China's recent diplomacy has been pretty sharp - if not quite a brilliancy in the chess sense, yet. Still, bringing the Sauds and Iran closer was always one of the most obvious easy wins for the Team Red side, and will be taken as a signal of a pending post-America Middle East, with U.S. hardball followed by desperate fistbumps not having its desired impact (see also: OPEC in Turn 12, Action Round 3)

From a wider humanitarian perspective, it can hardly be denied that a possible end to the long-running Yemeni civil war would have to be celebrated, with Saudi Arabia and Iran undeniably having much sway over the warring factions, even if not total. As warned, however, a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement looks likely to leave Israel isolated, what more with Iranian progress towards nuclear bomb(s) suspected to have helped persuade the Sauds to come to terms. The now-leaning-Red Sauds have apparently become confident enough to try and extort security guarantees and their own nuclear program out of Biden, in return for also normalizing relations with Israel.

Iran are of course firmly in the Team Red camp as matters stand, and one figures there being no genuine love lost between the largely-Muslim Middle Eastern Gulf states, and the infidel Great Satan Yanks. While the last Turn had seen Team Red play their card for the Event to avoid the Ops penalty - and Muslim Revolution's is really not a bad one - re-asserting Control over Iran, tilting them and Saudi Arabia towards BRICS whilst also gradually collecting Influence in the fossil fuel-based Gulf States over Team Blue's ill-advised push away from such energy sources, was tasty enough to forego the opportunity to eject the U.S. from, say, Syria (3/3) or Jordan (2/0). The standard Twilight Struggle mitigation for Team Blue would be to rebuild in Israel (5/2) and/or Lebanon (1/0), with the dollar at least still retaining its attraction in the latter.


Turn 13, Action Round 2 (Team Blue)

There is the moral of all human tales;
'Tis but the same rehearsal of the past.
First freedom and then Glory - when that fails,
Wealth, vice, corruption - barbarism at last.
And History, with all her volumes vast,
Hath but one page...

- Childe Harold's Pilgrimage, Lord Byron


Team Blue plays ABM Treaty for 4 Ops.


It takes three to tango!
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, nikkei.com)


4 Ops: +2 Influence in South Korea (5/2), +1 Influence in Japan (6/1), +1 Influence in Australia (6/1).

South Korea has denied Antagonizing intent in Bolstering Marine defence cooperation ties with the U.S. and Japan (recall, the latter two having just become best buds with US/Japan Mutual Defense Pact in Turn 12, Action Round 6), as America does some smoothing-over of relations between bickering would-be allies of their own (as analyzed last September, with a WW2-era labor dispute still rallying Koreans against the Japanese), towards bolstering their own strategy. The moves by Saudi Arabia and Iran towards joining BRICS+ are then mirrored by South Korea's own prodding in the direction of the QSD (more popularly known as the Quad), as the battle lines get marked out for Cold War II.

Concurrently with the above, Australia has also drawn closer to the U.S. and U.K. in acquiring three-plus nuclear submarines from their AUKUS partners, which has seen China rail against Japan's "unfriendly measures" (aligning with the Russian terminology), and naturally also the AUKUS submarine deal. Look, I gather both the U.S. and China know very well what they are both doing here with their respective fun-sized triple ententes, which in America's case appears to be an "archipelagic defense" focus in the (Asia-)Pacific, against China promptly inserting themselves into the partial vacuum thus left behind in the Middle East - because you chaps didn't actually think that Team Blue "alliances" aren't "transactional", right?!

In a more-meta sense, Team Blue not playing the card for its Event - or Couping with DEFCON currently at 3 - would be deemed strange in the board game representation, which could be explained by it being a little of a waste to spend 4 Ops on a single target. But for Coup fans, never fear; with Moscow complaining about Team Blue formenting one in Georgia (while flaunting their own Nuclear Subs off the U.S. East Coast), and Moldova's pro-Western government having recently collapsed to Russian Coup allegations by Team Blue, we may soon see another of those deliciously-dramatic dice rolls for a colour revolution/insurrection, in a coming Action Round!


[*On this, the Kuala Lumpur conference trip had me visiting one of their major mosques with some of my colleagues after the final day, to which we were kindly given a guided tour by the local volunteers (one of whom notably remarked on Singapore's skyrocketing property prices); the common lineage of the Abrahamic religions was also introduced, and it was all going nicely until an ad-hoc online translation of a prayer verse turned out to be... rather unkind to Jews, though our guides did quickly remark that it was not their accepted interpretation.

About this, my opinion on organized religions has not shifted; while foundational assertions such as "There is (only one?) Creator, who is beyond mortal understanding" can hardly be conclusively refuted, and basic moral teachings such as prohibitions on murder and stealing might be very much good, it always gets quite iffy once the specifics get involved (i.e. ah, but it is only my [understanding of the] Almighty that is the true one) - since this often seems to get entangled with quite secular conflicts over power, land and money etc.

Returning to geopolitics, it remains to be seen if Team Red affiliation will be enough for the Saudis and Iranians to put their Sunni-Shiite schism aside where it matters, but one can hardly fault the Israelis for getting a bit concerned.]



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