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Friday, Oct 13, 2023 - 20:40 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Will Wonders Never Cease II

It's June now in the Twilight Struggle: New Moon timeline, and the month opens with... a secret conclave of the world's spy chiefs, in sunny Singapore! This would draw some raised eyebrows in the audience on the supposed secretiveness of the Shangri-La Dialogue side-event, given how it's being reported in the mainstream media, but the awkward silence is soon broken by a lanky fellow not-so-furtively inching his way towards the table, dice in hand and walrus mustache on face. It's former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, back to try and Coup Russia yet again! He gets escorted off by the security once more, but ladies: if you ever find a man who likes you as much as that man loves Coups, marry him immediately!

That little distraction done with, there is a special missive from Alexei Polischuk of the Russian foreign ministry, on their recently-deployed tactical nuclear weapons as covered in Turn 13, Action Round 4 in March. Exactly as predicted in Belarussian Missile Crisis then, Russia has requested the "complete withdrawal of all U.S. nuclear weapons to U.S. territory and the elimination of the corresponding infrastructure in Europe", which has since been entirely ignored by Team Blue, for reasons also as explained then. Actually, I don't think Russia even expected this blackmail to work, but given that it more or less costs nothing to try, why not?

The move has however planted some unpleasant memories of past nuclear brinkmanship back into the consciousness of world leaders, and with his entreaties rebuffed, a scowling Polischuk plays Team Red's prepared card:


Turn 14, Action Round 2 (Team Red)

Team Red plays Missile Envy for its Event, which states to exchange the card for Team Blue's highest valued Operations card, with any ties resolved by Team Blue. Then, if the exchanged card contains a Team Red or neutral Event, it occurs immediately; if it instead contains a Team Blue Event, Team Red can use its Ops value without triggering the event, and Team Blue must use the Missile Envy card for Ops in the next Action Round.

That has to be one of the lengthiest rules text of any card in the game, and after some hushed discussion by the Blues, they hand a card over, not looking too pleased at this turn of Events.

Team Red plays Soviets Shoot Down RA-02795 for 4 Ops, without having to trigger the Team Blue Event due to Missile Envy's rule text.


You know, I know, what happened here
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, ft.com)


Ahem. Remember when, last October, we called the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage as CIA Created, later affirmed by Seymour Hersh early February? Far be it for us to be accused of favoritism towards either Team, then, in asserting here on the plane crash that did former Wagner Group boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin in: yes, the Russians did it (as Hersh agrees)

But let's rewind back to how this all started - on the 23rd of June, the Russian-funded paramilitary Wagner Group rebelled against their rivals, the Russian Ministry of Defence, and marched on Moscow with thousands of troops, finally halting some one to three hundred kilometres from the Russian capital. The news would be met with unmitigated glee from Team Blue media (and surely Bolton), some of who declared it the end for Putin's regime, but it would soon be obvious that Wagner boss Prigozhin had failed to garner much if any support in his beef with Shoigu and Gerasimov. This had him stop his advance by the next day, and there would then be some quite bizarre backing-down by Prigozhin after being branded a traitor by Putin, after which he essentially got exiled to Belarus.

Of course, having embarrassed Putin without taking him down, this was only going to end one way for Ol' Prigo:


OMAE WA MOU SHINDERU
(Source: knowyourmeme.com)


According to our sources, the underground death pool betting ring operators were not even accepting bets on Prigozhin's pending unfortunate demise, with the only uncertainty being how it would be accomplished - polonium umbrella, nerve agent-laced underwear, or the traditional ice pick to the head? The odds for all other options lengthened considerably once it became known that Prigozhin had boarded a plane in Moscow, given how unreliable such flying contraptions have proven to be, in the former U.S.S.R.; setting aside the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in Ukraine just nine years ago, the original Soviets Shoot Down KAL-007 recalls the interception of the ill-fated passenger jet by Soviet Air Force armour-piercing rounds back in 1983, killing all 269 on board. If they didn't want to be mistaken as spies, then they shouldn't have had "007" in their callsign, so the explanation went then.

Nobody, then, should have been very surprised when Prigozhin's Embraer Legacy 600 burst into flames and crashed with no survivors some 100km from Moscow, which was also very coincidentally more or less how close his bungled revolt had gotten, which you'd have to admit was a poetic touch. As with the Nord Stream sabotage, the expected speculations, accusations and denials soon followed, with the U.S. and Ukraine pointing at Russia, with the Kremlin predictably putting out a blanket denial. In any case, Putin has just revealed the outcome of his official investigations: Prigozhin and his buddies got drunk and high on drugs, and started playing with hand grenades on board. It was so sad, he was an hero.

Well, that minor mindboggler settled, the Ops:

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Cuba (0/4). Building from their last move in Cuba from February, China would unveil a deal with Cuba to host a spy base, later reported to have possibly been operational since 2019, and now possibly a joint military training facility. This had to be seen by the U.S. as going beyond mere Presence in their southern neighbour, from how this so closely resembles Cold War I posturing and expansion. Team Blue media would duly cast the agreement as a big threat, that presaged further plans by Team Red in the region, up to and including global Domination, whilst demanding immediate action against this China-Cuba axis prosecuting Cold War II.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Israel (5/4). That vacuum in the Middle East ain't filling itself, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would announce his first talks with Xi for six years, to take place in Beijing.

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Iran (1/5). Team Red continues tying their major Middle Eastern representative into regional agreements alongside the Israel talks, with Iran now forming a naval security alliance with Saudi Arabia (3/4) and Gulf States (3/3). Of course, the prospect of having to face a (sorta-)unified Arab bloc would have to weigh on Israel here...

1 Ops: +1 Influence in Hungary (1/3). And over in Europe, they have Budapest blocking various funding programmes for the Ukrainian military, following up on an anti-NATO purge of their own armed forces. It's difficult to mistake where this is taking them, and with a bit more of a push, Team Red might find a new member spoiling hopes of Europe Control for Team Blue.



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