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Tuesday, Oct 17, 2023 - 20:52 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

From Nine To Six

Whew, those chaps really got into party mode, and it is only after repeated entreaties, that the drums have been packed away, and the boombox blaring La Marseillaise and Shakira's Waka Waka (This Time For Africa) silenced. As for the vuvuzela, it has been confiscated, to the great relief of the rest of the attendees. No sir, this is not imperialist appropriation, it was a public health hazard - we will return it to you at the end of the programme. Much obliged.

Team Red has vacated their seats at the table in the meantime, to some confusion, and there is a gasp as the lights suddenly go out - before flashing back on with five figures standing on the table! There's a great cheer as the concert lasers spin up and a gigantic disco ball is lowered... are these chicks some new revival of the Spice Girls or summat?


Turn 14, Action Round 4 (Team Red)

Team Red plays Comecon for 3 Ops.


Come on now, you know you want some
[N.B. Look, it was that or this, I think I made the right call.]
(Original sources: twilightstrategy.com, r/NonCredibleDiplomacy)


The fifteenth annual BRICS summit would be held starting the 22nd of August in Johannesburg *tips vuvuzela*, and it would be arguably the most-anticipated of them all, due to the persistent rumours from last year that an expansion was in the works, after being first raised by China in 2017. Algeria, Argentina and Iran had already formally applied last year, with some twenty-five countries being listed as having shown interest by this May - before getting to France requesting observer status, eventually vetoed by China and Russia.

But first, what is BRICS? Very ironically for an organization now touted as challenging the existing world order (i.e. the G7 of the West/Team Blue), BRIC (without the S) had its genesis in a seemingly-throwaway acronym by a Goldman Sachs economist, who wanted a catchy title for his latest investment thesis (India supplying the only vowel probably helped their case). The originally-unwitting members would eventually recognize a good thing when they saw one, and Russia would host the first official summit in 2009, with South Africa added two years later for African representation, and the plural (sorry, Nigeria)



Catching up fast
(Source: trends.google.com)


BRICS would not gain much attention before Cold War II and the Team Red/Team Blue split became nigh-undeniable, though, which was also about when it was realized that they had overtaken the G7 in production too, with some 32% of global GDP to the G7's 30%, despite only having five members to the G7's well, seven. Their potential threat to the G7's financial clout appears to have largely been dismissed in the Team Blue media, however, with the main justification being the conflicts simmering between its members, particularly China's territorial disputes with India and Russia - but then again, it's not like it's been all roses between G7 nations either, with Russia previously expelled from the group in 2014 (which possibly accounts for the sudden spike in interest in BRICS about then)

Still, it remained true that the raison d'etre for BRICS remained somewhat up in the air, with limited cohesion between the five; that they represented just about the strongest non-G7 and non-Western nations had to give the grouping a certain weight amongst those who saw themselves as being excluded from the dominant West (i.e. most of the Rest of the world), though, thus the long queue for membership. Expansion of the de-facto bloc was clearly not without its own problems, that said, with many of the applicants bringing their own disagreements, the balance of regional representation aside, which only raised renewed doubts about the purpose of BRICS+ itself.

Leaving that question for later, six new members would be accepted by the end of the three-day summit, which saw some hiccups in Putin's no-show due to an ICC arrest warrant (after initial defiance), and a takedown of Xi's aide: Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Egypt and Argentina. The strategic implication of these choices would be swiftly dissected, with the first impression having to be the accession of probably the three most-consequential Middle East powers, bar Israel. Egypt and Ethiopia are of course still at odds over a Nile dam, with Argentina reportedly surprised at their inclusion, which was attributed to Brazil's insistence. Considering that the expansion has given the not-a-bloc further Control over major geographical chokepoints, though, some wariness about an actual push to "reshuffle the world order" has set in.



What it all comes down to
(Source: r/vexillology)


Despite triumphant Chinese propaganda hailing the now eleven-strong BRICS+ as a bona-fide "geopolitical rival" to the G7 (and G20), and other analyses casting it as a new (and still useless) Non-Aligned Movement or a replacement for United Nations institutions and regulations, the essential nature of BRICS+ seems unmistakeable: it's an economic alliance. With direct warfare between major (nuclear) powers unthinkable, Control over global financial flows has become a key weapon wielded by current hegemon and reserve currency owners the U.S., which the formation of a large-enough alternative economic bloc would mitigate (as raised last May on "alphabet soup" organizations)

This then summons the ghost of Comecon, the Soviet Union's Council for Mutual Economic Assistance that promoted economic coordination between core Team Red members, in Cold War I - which came up against much the same issues of incompatibility between constituent states. This is not to say that the BRICS+ attempt at dedollarization - possibly via a revival of gold-backed currency - is destined for failure, but they are in any case starting small with commodity barter. The Americans don't seem too concerned yet, and Team Blue media has turned to warning against the BRICS+ states becoming China's economic vassals.

3 Ops: +1 Influence in Egypt (1/2), +1 Influence in Ethiopia (0/1), +1 Influence in Sudan (0/1). The impact on the Middle Eastern trio had already been described in Turn 13, Action Round 2 with Muslim Revolution, and with Argentina (1/4) also recently engaged, the Influence from the summit would go towards northern Africa. It remains to be seen whether Egypt and Ethiopia's shared membership will help resolve their resentments, with Sudan - lying between the twain - already feted by the Russian-Chinese axis.



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