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Thursday, Apr 09, 2026 - 19:19 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Hormuz Senjata

"There are five keys to the world. The Strait of Dover, the Straits of Gibraltar, the Suez Canal, the Straits of Malacca (Singapore), and the Cape of Good Hope. And every one of these keys we hold."

- British First Sea Lord, Admiral John Fisher

"Not so fast."

- American GOD-EMPEROR, DONALD TRUMP



Praise be!
(Source: straitstimes.com)


It has to be accounted an excellent start to the day when the world contains the same number of civilizations as it did the previous night, and it was therefore with great rejoicing that I awakened to some temporary accommodation being reached between GEOTUS and whoever happened to be left in charge of Iran at the present moment, given U.S./Israeli adoption of the decapitate-until-they-feel-like-talking strategy, as predicted early last month. Before continuing, it should be attested that I bear no ill-will towards the Iranian - or indeed any - people in general, a sentiment that the Iranian president had also expressed in an open letter addressed to the American populace last week. Sadly, he's probably not the one in power.

There however remain a distressingly large number of very questionable narratives and explanations surrounding the on-pause Iran War and related geopolitical developments, including of course the situation concerning the Strait of Hormuz, that twenty-odd mile-wide chokepoint formerly traversed by somewhere between a fifth and a quarter of the global oil and gas trade - and fully a third of its fertiliser supply. Well, as a citizen of a country distinguished by its straits - that its national broadsheet is further named after - it behooves this one to correct the record to the best of his ability.


Interpretations Left Unsaid


Example creative use of AI video generation by Team Red CCTV
(but it has to be said that this seems like a mostly accurate depiction of the Iran War; the one with not-Israel as a squid mind-controlling the American Eagle is funnier... just don't watch it in Australia)
[N.B. U.S. AI giants OpenAI, Anthropic and Google are finally officially combining forces to contest China's national AI team, this after OpenAI shut Sora down upon SeeDance's release from being outcompeted.]


To begin with, a summary of how Hormuz gained its outsized influence in recent days: it all began in 1622, when the English and Persians cooperated to oust the Portuguese from their fortress on an island within the strait, which was quite welcome from the Persian (Iranian) perspective. The English however overstayed their welcome - while evolving into the Kingdom of Great Britain and then spawning Great America - within the next 150 years or so, and wound up taking possession of Iranian petroleum reserves in the early twentieth century. The Iranians were perhaps understandably unhappy with this arrangement, and nationalized their oil industry in 1951. Expectedly, the British MI6 and the U.S. CIA duly overthrew their Prime Minister and installed a Shah/King, who was in turn deposed by the Ayatollah in 1979, whose successor was in turn taken out (but not to lunch) by GEOTUS TRUMP, an invitation he has just kindly extended to the entire country (RSVP status unknown)

Somewhere in between, the now-Islamic Republic of Iran would come to control the Kharg Island oil terminal whilst being a constant thorn in the side of their neighbours, in particular Iraq (who may have inspired the ship toll idea) and Israel (the latter mostly through proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah). Israel's greatest and existential worry likely was and remains enemy possession of nuclear weapons, which had them destroy an under-construction Iraqi reactor in 1981, and more recently assassinate multiple Iranian nuclear scientists over the last decades. Israel would never quite trust the JCPOA agreement to keep Iran from getting the bomb either, and Netanyahu supposedly sold TRUMP on regime change by decapitation strike - which brings us to where we are today.

This went well enough for the U.S. God of War in the beginning as they struck their targets largely unimpeded, if with the odd F-15 being downed; both crew were eventually rescued, to some gloating from the CIA - who had reportedly utilized their new "Ghost Murmur" quantum magnetometry tech to locate the airman's heartbeats. Iran's retaliation would be largely limited to America's Middle Eastern allies (or military base hosts, at the least) and Israel - who may well have been hit harder than they are letting on. Iran's apparent masterstroke thus far has however been in threatening shipping crossing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing it by mid-March.


Do not pass go, can collect US$2 million
(Source: bbc.com)


The reasoning for the closure was quite straightforward, as it happens; as a general rule, countries tend not to care much until an issue affects them directly, and one would expect most of them to vacillate against the full might of the U.S. God of War, even assuming that they were not secretly supportive of the American enforcement action to begin with. Cut off a fourth of global oil and gas supply, on the other hand, and plenty of these countries would suddenly have plenty of skin in the game. Without energy, factories and data centers would eventually come to a halt, before going into how food and other essentials would become much more expensive to transport - with developing nations faring the worst due to unaffordability.

This had GEOTUS request allies and other interested parties such as the United Kingdom, China, France, Japan and South Korea to send warships to Hormuz to secure it in mid-March, which had 38 countries condemn Iran's attacking of commercial shipping a few days later... if with next to no naval force commitments. The sorry response had GOD-EMPEROR TRUMP inform "allies" that they could get their own oil from the strait by the end of March, and announce his intention to quit NATO in the event of freeloading members not directly supporting U.S. military actions, in Iran and elsewhere. This threat should be taken quite seriously from how the NATO Secretary General is back in Washington to save the alliance, given that the constitutionality of the 2024 NDA Act requiring congressional approval is in doubt, not to say its practicability.

While Iran's supposed allowance of select "friendly" vessels to traverse the strait (and possibly for US$2 million a ship, split with Oman) has been presented as a defeat for the U.S. in less-informed quarters such as Reddit, cursory analysis should reveal that this gesture is ultimately self-defeating; the more normality resumes for the shipping situation, the less leverage they would have against continued U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, which was the whole point to begin with. Perhaps more crucially, Iranian de-facto control of Hormuz shipping would be entirely unacceptable to Gulf states such as the UAE, many of whom are quite openly pleading with GEOTUS to finish the job properly. A first lesson here, then, might be that countries' actual stands may well be entirely different from what the ignorant public is led to believe in the mainstream FAKE NEWS (as correctly pointed out by both Iran and TRUMP)... and supposed "friends" may well not be.



Former American envoy to Ukraine spits truth
[N.B. Notably also Markog's (note apropos possibly-Biblical reference) accusation on perceived breach of honour, as explored recently]
(Source: kyivpost.com)


With this realisation, one can move on to the current kerfuffle over NATO, and the true meaning behind GEOTUS being displeased at his "allies" not helping out at Hormuz, and telling them to get their own oil while teasing a departure from NATO. Before continuing, I present the context of the following analysis in the spirit of good faith. Reviewing the posts on related geopolitical topics here over the past year or so, we have:

  • Predicted TRUMP's tariffing of the entire world last February, two months before it happened - even identifying China and the E.U. at the head of the list
  • Explained TRUMP's tariff strategy as a display of Strength, made possible by his mastery of the Word
  • Underlined TRUMP's status as the American God of War
  • Emphasized (twice) the reasoning behind the tariffing of the entire world at once as an open challenge to all other countries, by the King standing at the pinnacle of the world; indeed, why be in a hurry to attain heaven, when one is second to none on the material Earth?
  • Analyzed Hegseth's probably-overboard flattery in winning friends and influencing people
  • Presented TRUMP's mastery of all aspects of Strategy, only recently concurred by the mainstream media
  • Anticipated and reported half the world's bending the knee thereof to TRUMP with respect to his unilateral tariffs (seldom acknowledged by biased forumites), together with relevant patterns on BRICS nations
  • Described the Greatest Game between the Big Three of America, China and Russia, foreshadowing TRUMP's decapitation strikes on Venezuela and Iran (with more of those probably to come)

Indeed, in the analysis of TRUMP's tariff intents last May, I had gone as far as to offer my head were it to be proven inaccurate. There was, of course, no need to have done such a thing - many famous newspaper and stock pundits have maintained lengthy careers despite being quite consistently off with their calls, after all. Nevertheless, it was made out of sincerity. And while it may be unseemly to undertake audits by oneself, I believe that a fair review of all the points presented above would show them to all be essentially correct. Definitely, past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but it may well be suggestive.

That done with, the true reason:


One senses much post-facto regret to come, as usual
[Embiggen!]
(Source: onepunchmanofficial.com)


Now, it is true that the special operation in Iran is, strictly speaking, not within the remit of NATO. Unfortunately, it is also entirely true that the current setup of NATO is also, practically speaking, not to the benefit of America. Considered from a purely military and security angle, America is definitely providing far more than they are receiving - and have been doing so for eighty years and counting. The main thing that made the deal remotely palatable was European recognition of American leadership, and (officially non-related) support in other areas (e.g. economic), which has been dwindling in recent years. Appeals to pure goodwill and humanitarian concerns might be directed towards the European response to other crises such as the ongoing Sudanese civil war (i.e. sure maybe it's unfortunate, but how does this impact me? Why should I care?)

But even more than getting the worse end of the transaction (which it is), it is the sheer hypocrisy of the Europeans (and other Team Blue members) that is grating on Imperial America; these "allies" enjoy the fruits of American enforcement actions, while at the same time claim the moral high ground and (usually in retrospect) condemn the cruelty of conflict - as if they are not feasting on the returns. This is akin to badmouthing the butcher and abattoir workers while savouring a delectable steak, and frankly - as with Respect - no longer merely a matter of money.

TRUMP's message then is: you lot would like (a rules-based) order, but squeam at its price; well, show us how you would maintain it, without getting blood on your own hands.

As it is, Europe's behaviour on other matters continually reflects their self-interest (not that one can blame them for it); take the current holdup over the 90 billion Euro loan to Ukraine, as "imposed" by Hungary for Ukraine's blocking of oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline, which has had the German Chancellor (among others) ineffectually urge the European Union to bypass the holdup. The key observation is that, if they really wanted to, the rest of the Union could very clearly simply get together and expedite their own loan pro-rated to whatever they were going to contribute, sans Hungary's portion which would have been next to nothing anyway. Recall, we had stated in February 2024 that neither party in the Ukraine proxy war was serious (yet), and this only furthers that assertion.


Twenty year-old comic totally on point again...
[Embiggen!]
(Source: manhuagui.com)




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