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Tuesday, Apr 14, 2026 - 20:40 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

No Strait Link Was Ever Made


Just glad they are still having fun over in the Middle Earthst...
[N.B. Handy live Hormuz/Anduin status tracker]
(Sources: channelnewsasia.com, stackexchange.com)


As presaged by last Thursday's post on the subject, the GOD-EMPEROR TRUMP has again demonstrated his fathomless strategic genius, by announcing the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, after Iran had imposed their own.

Bet they didn't see that coming!

This is of course simply a brilliant application of "the way of interception (despite starting later; 后发先至)", the core principle of Jeet Kune Do* (截拳道), itself tracing roots from The Art of War (that Don Tzu has long improved on, as explained last June). Jeet Kune Do is of course characterized by its explicit rejection of "clinging" to traditions and patterns (不拘泥于套路) - a failing that TRUMP can hardly be accused of - and its admonition to "be like water", of which there is certainly a lot of at Hormuz. TRUMP's mastery of The Art of War has by the way been grudgingly recognized by the mainstream media, though in interpreting Don Tzu's actions as "confusing the enemy by first confusing oneself" (己不知 敌亦不知), his critics have implicitly acknowledged that his strategy is beyond their comprehension (说来说去你就是看不透懂王的战策啦)

As it happens, GEOTUS's blockade of Hormuz, as currently faithfully implemented by the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), has deeply-considered rationale behind it. The failure of what is hopefully just the first round of the Islamabad Talks between American and Iran (as had to be expected, from how far apart their stated positions were, along with an apparent inability to use Google Translate... or paper, for that matter), had left Iran exerting control over the straits in practice. As it turns out, it is not too difficult to deny transit within a relatively small body of water by simply making hostile intent known and perhaps dropping (and losing) a few cheap mines, which would have insurers refuse to cover the risks. American efforts at reinsurance have not had the intended effect, and one can hardly fault the sailors for not wanting to try their luck, given some thirty attested attacks on vessels thus far.

It should be noted that Iran had been willing and able to let some ships from declared "friendly" countries pass, most prominently from major customer China, but also from India, Malaysia, Spain and others - including their own "dark fleet" of grey-market oil tankers. This was effectively a one-sided blockade, which had Team Red/Grey shipping allowed through to an extent, while denying Team Blue access. Definitely, the fungibility of oil/gas and, uh, malleability of flagged nationality does not exclude American "allies" from securing supplies via resellers, but it remains undeniable that Iran would have continued benefitting from their ability to export energy.

[*Which reminds me of the time when a local on a bicycle immediately guessed what I was looking for**, at Seattle's Lake View Cemetery. That has got to be stereotyping, right?]

[**Chuck Norris may finally be getting that rematch too, after GEOTUS put a good word in.]


Do Not Ask For Whom Tehran Tolls


Never miss an opportunity to close a deal!
[N.B. Chinese academics were actually quite supportive of the idea.]
(Source: instagram.com)


Concomitant with Iran's currently-blockaded blockade is their imposition of a toll, or transit fee, on vessels desiring to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, with some 26 ships reported to have followed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-mandated route through, and thus come under justified suspicion of having acceded to Tehran's demands. Their claimed right to impose a toll had been implicit in their 10-point peace plan, with permanent legislation being drafted to formalize a control mechanism for payment in crypto or Chinese yuan. This income, if allowed, would not be inconsiderable - at a quite-realistic US$2 million per tanker, that would come to about US$8 billion a year, or roughly Singapore's COE income from vehicles (and nobody has been contesting that!)

All this is clearly antithetical to Israeli (and American) interests - just imagine how many Shaheds that comes to - which has had GEOTUS commit to his blockade, after briefly considering a win-win joint toll. While a retired admiral (and former NATO supreme commander) has described the implementation as a gamble requiring at least two carrier strike groups, one figures that the superior strategic genius of GEOTUS would be able to make do with far less (i.e. Oops! I lost my mines too!). Indeed, there have been few challenges to the U.S. Navy's policing of the area, with the few exceptions likely to be interdicted a safe distance away, because it's not like oil tankers are known for outrunning destroyers (perhaps Gold Ship excepted)

Very disappointingly, there has continued to be no actual commitment towards (indirectly) enforcing freedom of navigation, with NATO "allies" again freeloading despite the NATO chief admitting a failure to contribute to global safety, and requesting pledges to that end. Some of them - such as Britain and France - have at least summoned sufficient scruples to reject the Ayatollbooth, if with recalcitrants such as Spain apparently edging closer to Team Red, from how their Prime Minister has just urged China to take a bigger role in a multipolar order from his speech at Tsinghua - but more on Spanish (and European) alignment next time.



They're like ten years too late on "Dangerous Don"...
(Source: bbc.com)


[To be continued...]



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Next: The Crooked Timbre Of Humanity


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