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Sunday, Apr 19, 2026 - 16:54 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

The Crooked Timbre Of Humanity


Or: No Hormuz senjata please, ke belakang pusing!
[N.B. Senjata being, of course, "weapon"]
(Source: straitstimes.com)


To the best of my knowledge, it was neither Britain, France nor Oman that first disavowed Iran's toll plans, however. That honour belongs to none other than Singapore, assuming no prior declaration to our Foreign Minister's pronouncement on the seventh of April that we would not negotiate for safe passage through Hormuz, under the principle that the right of transit passage is codified in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and not for Iran to grant or revoke. This stand would then be taken up by our Coordinating Minister for National Security, and now the Prime Minister, which one supposes is as high as it gets in the Singapore hierarchy.

This proclamation however comes with the situation at Hormuz still very much in flux, with Iran having reportedly just reimposed their blockade hours after declaring it open (if with scant clarity on tolls), due to America's promised continued (counter-)blockade with not two but three carrier groups (and destroyers) in a show of raw Strength over "international law". Thankfully, no reverse UNO counter-counter-blockade of the Red Sea has been attempted by the IRGC yet, but this has not stopped them from firing upon a tanker trying to cross. It appears that most ships had been turned back even before that, because as sagely noted by the Brits, it is far easier to deny use of a sea, than to control it. They have by the way just co-chaired a performative meeting with France on policing the strait, but from how GOD-EMPEROR TRUMP and Tsar Putin have both dismissed the weaksauce effort, this is looking uncannily like another Suez Crisis humiliation in the making.

Returning to Singapore's position, the reasoning behind it is obvious enough. As National Security Minister Shanmugam pointed out, the Strait of Malacca is less than two nautical miles wide at its minimum, which makes it eminently more blockable than Hormuz. Indeed, given that Singapore's maritime boundaries are entirely surrounded by Malaysian and Indonesian waters, they would be able to entirely isolate Singapore (and perhaps promote alternative routes) were precedent to be set. Dr. Balakrishnan's refusal to negotiate with Iran for passage had in fact been criticized by Malaysian parties (likely in part due to Palestinian sympathies), though this has since been accepted by their Prime Minister as Singapore's prerogative... for now.


Principles... or something else?
(Source: x.com)


Anyway, as The Economist has reminded, the duo have their own Straits to worry about - and one of the five keys to the world no less. The strategic genius of GEOTUS TRUMP has taken the initiative this time, so it seems, with the Secretary of the God of War having just announced a major defence partnership with Indonesia, immediately raising fears on the weaponization of the Straits of Malacca, which is of course together with Hormuz the other of the two chokepoints linking Gulf energy to East Asian consumers. Perhaps most relevant to Singapore is the agreement's supposed granting of total access for Indonesian airspace to U.S. military aircraft, given Singapore's legacy stewardship over that domain... though one doubts that much will be said if American planes perform overflights anyhow.

From how the Indonesian President has noted that some 70% of East Asia's energy and trade passes through Indonesian waters (probably referencing the Straits of Malacca), he is well aware of his country's value in The Greatest Game - which will hardly always be to Singapore's benefit, it goes without saying. While I have tended to be a critic of the incumbent party in domestic politics by design, one can only hope that they are on top of things here; one has to for example sympathize with DPM Gan, who has had his "Taskforce Man" title roundly deried online, after being unable to get GEOTUS's Imperial Tariffs lifted - or even get an audience with the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for that matter. Frankly, what did these netizens expect, when the tariffs were so clearly a challenge to the entire world, by the Lion of America?! It is unclear if any clarification has been made as requested on the latest 15% tariffs either, and really it may be wiser to simply leave the matter be, than actively seek a loss of face by repeatedly being ignored by The Emperor.

This is all the more given how the country's security has been and ultimately remains underwritten by America - like it or not - under their possibly-unravelling Pax Americana, amidst our ministers' repeated references to a "violent world", whilst still appealing to "international law"... which of course is only enforced by force and violence at the bottom of it all. This is not an endorsement, mind; only a description of reality.


Interesting choice of jewellery for today, ma'am!
(Source: latimes.com)


For example, America did not win World War II and create the Pax by waving their Constitution and preaching scripture - they kind of evaporated two cities while firebombing maybe half a million victims, as respected scholar of history TRUMP gently reminded Japan's latest Prime Minister on her state visit, just so there are no misunderstandings. This application had mainstream Japanese culture progress from hypermasculine samurai beheading peasants for supposed slights (briefly introduced in Syonan-to), to anime (sometimes-horse) girls squealing over teriyaki. And while China has been nicer of late, let's just say that the CCP didn't gain power by debating Sun Yat-sen's philosophy with the Kuomintang generals either.

The martial valour of the God of War has thankfully been tempered somewhat from how GEOTUS is executing (relatively-)precision strikes, though it may indeed complicate negotiations somewhat if one keeps decapitating the representatives (to the extent that they justifiably requested a Pakistani escort home). Those letters of marque are moreover being issued in earnest now, with America having claimed the right to seize any and all Iranian-linked vessels on the open seas, which they are certainly capable of.

For all of various non-superpower politicians' bellyaching about control through force and coercion, however, empirical evidence thus far appears to indicate that it actually works - and also on the "soft power" front no less. While the main takeaway for most from a recent ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute poll on Southeast Asian movers-and-shakers was the considerable shift towards strategic alignment with China (alongside some self-promotion) mirroring global trends, the more-perceptive might have also realized that U.S. support generally remained strongest amongst those that they had, well, invaded and/or colonized... which unfortunately naturally suggests a display of raw Strength for Great America to regain their popularity here.


That was... unexpected.
(Source: cfr.org)


China has for their part been laying the "soft power" on thick, with the release of fuel to Southeast Asia (against Bessent's sniping, and a belated effort by Japan that might be seen as Team Blue's counteroffer) despite a general ban on exports, concurrent with the imposition of a slow economic stranglehold on member countries. Of course, one expects that certain concessions will be required after the early promotional period, but these will probably be demanded in a far more roundabout manner than the Americans. China has also been wisely addressing one of their greatest strategic weaknesses (as explained in January) by hosting the more pro-unification KMT leader and repeating their stance against independence in no uncertain terms whilst dangling carrots, but from how Team Blue Japan and Australia have been running interference, one can only hope this can be settled without undue bloodshed.

Singapore's relevance to the Taiwan issue would be mainly though the Straits of Malacca/Singapore, and to be fair I can't blame our leaders were they to maintain their usual "monitoring the situation" approach, were hostilities to actually break out (touch wood). Frankly, what could one expect them to do if, for example, the God of War were to announce a blockade (possibly using mines, as the Brits did during the Second World War) of the straits, and demand continued use of their naval base to conduct operations? Are they really about to say no, get a "well we are coming anyway, are you going to stop us - think carefully" response, and reveal who is actually in charge, despite the persistent insistence on "upholding principles"?

About this, our Law Minister's appeal to self-interest (about which he has graciously demonstrated in his ongoing defamation lawsuit against Bloomberg, which may have become a bit of a circus - and not even for that much money) might be the most honest description of the "principles" on offer, as local netizens have recognized from Singapore's active participation in the (probably-illegal) American invasion of Iraq possibly encouraged by financial incentives (later downplayed), alongside slightly-convenient stands on Vietnam and general silence over Cambodia and Laos, or indeed other Team Blue "adventures" such as Euromaidan. But then, one can hardly deny that it feels good to be on the winning side (who tend to be the ones to [re-]interpret the laws, if it comes down to that)

The opinion by our Foreign Minister that the U.S. and Iran should be bound by international law (UNCLOS) that they have not ratified (not a "get-out-of-jail-free card") is rather bold, one has to admit, given that this seems ripe for backfiring in the future. Hopefully the Hormuz senjata gets resolved at least for the couple of weeks or so that I'll be in Europe for... and if not, perhaps Tsar Putin might let the U.K. off for a bit longer at least.


They're seriously big on the "honour" thing with conquering the world now...
(Source: cnbc.com)




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Next: Anglo-Dutch Tour


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No Strait Link Was Ever Made
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