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Sunday, Feb 08, 2015 - 22:58 SGT
Posted By: Gilbert

Novelty And Nochange

Me: Hey, Mr Robo, I...

Mr. Robo: AAHHHHHHH! Oh, it's not Mr. Ham. So sorry about that. It's just that I'm slightly on edge here.

Mr. Ham: Now, now. I'm not that bad. By the way, let's have you two greet H.L. Ham's new intern, Mr. Fish!

Me: The latest Mr. Fish? What are you doing here? But that can only mean... oh. My condolences.

Mr. Ham: Don't beat yourself up over it, it was coming. In any case, the benefits are far better here, aren't they?

Me: Well, since the apartment's empty now, I suppose it could do with some refurbishing. Where's that list of complaints that the occupants compiled... ah, yes. "Hard to clean". There's a bit of a design flaw, admittedly - it turns out that the aluminium L-beams do still corrode, and there're some hard-to-reach areas, especially behind the fixtures.

What I'm thinking is, we go prefabricated modular this time; pure acrylic, with a sturdy outer framework, interior drawer-like compartments that are easily removable and washable. Forget the hinges and metal ladders, as few rustable and moving parts as possible. LED light fixtures go on the framework, as do the electric fans.

Mr. Ham: Yeah, you can never have too much air conditioning in this blasted tropical clime. We hail from far up north, you know? Also, no more LED lights on the fans, we'd like to be able to control them separately.

Me: Noted. And that'll come to... whew. It'll probably take a few more paychecks, before it fits into my discretionary budget. Unless, you lot would like to chip in too.

Mr. Ham: *suspiciously* Ya ain't pulling that "support me and I'll upgrade your lodgings" shit with us, right?

Me: *offended* What do I look like?!

Mr. Ham: Calm down, bro. Just makin' sure. Sure's nice to get some recognition once in a while, yeah.

Me: At least getting the materials shouldn't prove too much trouble. I guess I'll let the professionals assemble this one, though, and just concentrate on getting the design correct. Okay, on to a brief overview of the week's happenings.


An A By Any Name

So it seems that Our Most Successful Investment Firm (i.e. Temasek Holdings, for those who haven't been frequenting this corner of the Internet) has had its standalone credit rating slashed by Standard & Poor's, with "standalone rating" meaning "if the entity stood on its own merit, without the implied ultimate backing of the relevant Government".

While it might be true that lumping us together with Greece might be slightly far-fetched, at least one commentator has observed that the major rationale behind the non-AAA grade was the implicit lack of liquidity in (what is known of) Our Most Successful Investment Firm's portfolio, which has been raised here last year (and which our Only Slightly Less Successful Investment Firm, i.e. GIC, is piling on)

Interestingly, it appears that the majority of Our Most Successful Investment Firm's assets are tied up in just ten investments; now, "don't diversify" isn't bad... if you're right. Anyhow, of that top ten list, seven are local firms (mostly inherited from the state proper, it seems)

Of the remaining three, there's China Construction Bank (which does seem to have gone up about 20% in the past few years - but, can they sell?), Standard Chartered (let's not talk about it), and Shin Corp (which seems to be on the auction block, after all the mess that accompanied its purchase)

Still, the downgrade is nothing to be particularly happy about, as Temasek's portfolio remains, if in some exceptionally abstract way, beholden to the citizens. That said, I doubt that their borrowing costs will shoot up to match Greece's anytime soon, so just take it as a nice reality check. Sidenote: Greece's new Finance Minister earned his spurs managing video game marketplaces; given that they're leaning towards "write off all the debt" after their latest elections, I'd say that he's probably vastly overqualified.

And on getting As in our primary schools, it's really not easy. Quick, what is the difference between a bird and a lion?

If you said, "The bird has feathers but the lion does not", you are wrong! But it could still make sense - maybe they want to emphasize that sticking feathers on a lion does not turn it into a bird? Perhaps they want more essential biology used... but isn't that a little heavy for nine year-old kids?

As it turns out, that's not the issue. The correct answer is, "The bird has feathers but the lion does not have feathers".

Yes, I know, after awhile, I wouldn't bother to argue either. Thankfully, I don't recall too much of these from my days.


Alcohol 80%

It's almost becoming a habit now. Guys turn rowdy, police swoop in, sniff out liquor, which is then duly played up by our incumbent representatives in support of the 81% who are for the new alcohol restrictions (their own survey). Really, you'd think that if we would just ban it completely, there'd be no more conflicts or crime.

It soon turned out that the fracas was actually probably due to a dispute over the playing of musical instruments during processions, from a first-hand account, but yeah, blame it on beer (it's not like liquids can object, after all). There're no non-trivial fault lines remaining here - nope, not us!

And, another substance seems to have been unfairly maligned; I've lost count myself of how many times I've been warned that MSG would cause hair and memory loss, but it transpires that this negative reputation originated from a single anecdote from the Sixties, and that there's nothing actually the matter with the additive, in moderation. Then again, I've had most food-based pop-science on ignore for some time already. Just chow it down if you want, lah.


Monopoly Achieved

It's done and dusted - Singapore Pools has achieved a total monopoly on gambling, because if citizens are to lose money, how dare they lose it to anyone but the State (that said, China are going down the same road, clamping down on the decadent Western imperialist family-shattering immoral practice of wagering... which is, however, acceptable if you do it in the proper party-sanctioned premises)?

For this, they didn't even bother to do a poll and get their usual 60% to 80% support, which means that local punters are legally restricted to the shitty odds that Pools has on offer. Take tonight's game between West Ham and United:

West HamDrawMan Utd
SG Pools3.703.301.80
bet3654.203.601.95
betfair4.303.701.99
Paddy Power3.803.502.00


While I'm an extremely infrequent punter by any measure, the roughly 10% extra off the top remains galling. But then again, why bother improving your service, if you can just ban the competition outright? Which brings us to...


CPF Revised (Or So It Is Said)

After bring the apparatus of the state down to bear on an activist blogger (who however, it has to be said, can be a handful), the incumbents have evidently conceded that the guy had something of a point, having just rolled out CPF reforms, with some braver academics chipping in on its structural inadequacy (not that silently appropriating ideas is that alien to the incumbents, after all)

But then again, reform here is generally code for "no change", which might not itself be bad, if not for the implicit misrepresentation. Anyway, see for yourself:

Current CPF system
  • (Compulsory) Minimum Sum: S$161000; monthly payouts from age 65, S$1200+
  • With property pledge - can withdraw up to half the Minimum Sum (S$80500); if so, monthly payouts fall to S$600+
REFORM!!!
  • (Compulsory) Full Retirement Sum: S$161000; monthly payouts from age 65, S$1200+
  • With property pledge - can withdraw up to half the Full Retirement Sum (S$80500); the new term for this is Basic Retirement Sum. If so, monthly payouts fall to S$600+
  • New: And wait! If you have too much money, the government wants it - under the Enhanced Retirement Sum, you can hand the CPF Board another S$80500!

As far as I can see, the bugbear of the Minimum Sum has been permanently resolved... by renaming it the Retirement Sum. All hail the CPF Advisory Panel! Okay lah, there's more.

  • If you get to 65, you can withdraw up to 20% of the available savings as a lump sum (which will then reduce the monthly payouts accordingly)
  • Or, or, you can defer your payout until you're 70! (The CPF Board really, really, wants your money) If so, for each year deferred, the monthly payout will increase by 6 to 7% (so good ah)

On that second point, which might have warmed the cockles of some oldies' hearts, about the generosity of the zheng hu: Singapore got no free lunch one. A quick back of the envelop calculation, using our life expectancy of 82 years, a monthly base payout of S$600, and the higher 7%/year bonus for deferment:

  • Start at 65 years: 17 years * (S$600 * 12) = S$122400
  • Start at 70 years: 12 years * (S$810 * 12) = S$116640

And this is not even considering that the payouts received earlier are likely to be worth more, due to inflation (as pointed out by finance experts, but the payouts themselves are not even guaranteed, so...)! Assuming inflation of 3% a year (which happens to be the amount by which the Minim... sorry, Retirement Sum will increase by annually, for the foreseeable future), the inflation-adjusted sum of payouts would then be:

  • Start at 65 years: 17 years * (S$600 * 12) = S$97000
  • Start at 70 years: 12 years * (S$810 * 12) = S$85180

i.e. while the loss from deferment was about S$6000 in nominal terms, it would double to near S$12000 in real, inflation-adjusted terms! Certainly, this could be worth it if you live long enough - the crossover point under the previous assumptions was about 90 years (about a third of the population). So, how healthy do you feel?

But one can't really blame the panel that much, since the whole CPF issue remains at heart a long-term, structural imbalance; so just play along, lor.


Now That's A Wait

No, the next instalment of the Game of Thrones series isn't coming out this year (which means that the ending might be out on television long before the final book is released). But that's still nothing on the sequel to To Kill A Mockingbird, for so long a high school staple - after no less than fifty-five years, Go Set A Watchman will be out!

Problem here is, some are suspecting that the author was in no condition to authorize the release of the manuscript, especially since she had had so long to order that, which brings us to how acceptable it is to publish stuff against a writer's wishes, for the intellectual salvation of the masses.


Still my favourite debut ever.


Of course, any destruction would still be a great loss...



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